2016: Sebelius/Henry (D) vs. Snowe/Lingle (R)

[bhouston79]

After 8 years of a fairly successful Obama administration with Obama leaving office with approval ratings hovering in the 55-60% range, who wins an election matchup between these two women?  Does the combination of two Democrats from the plains states on the same ticket along with two moderate Republican women from Maine and Hawaii on the same ticket shake up the electoral map?  Discuss with maps if you like:)

[JSojourner]

The GOP would never nominate Snowe.  Ever.  (At least not the 2008 GOP)

[tmthforu94]

Well, both Sebelius and Snowe are good, moderate women. I would be happy with whoever won, although I would vote for Snowe.
Sebelius has a popularity issue. I don't see how she could ever win the Democratic nomination, because she doesn't have much of a fanbase. (Not saying Snowe doesn't either)

Anyways, here is a map. Kansas will stay Republican, but it will be close.

Electoral Vote
Sebelius/Henry: 266
Snowe/Lingle: 272

Popular Vote
Sebelius/Henry: 49.35%
Snowe/Lingle: 49.48%

Well, it isn't showing me the map. Snowe wins Ohio, Maine, New Hampshire, Indiana, Missouri, Kansas, Florida, Virginia and Hawaii. (Hawaii is a longshot)
Sebelius wins Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada.

[bhouston79]

Well here's my best guess under such a scenario:

Electoral College

Selelius/Henry 371
Snowe/Lingle  167

Popular Vote

Selelius/Henry 46.2%
Snowe/Lingle  44.5%
Others              9.3%


The GOP's decision to pick a moderate pro-choice Republican helps them become more competitive in the North East and Mid-Atlantic, but it also destroys their stranglehold on the South.  Although several right wing third party candidates run on minor party tickets and as independents; they all split each other's both and they cyphon off critical votes from the Snowe/Lingle ticket.  The election is much closer than the electoral vote count indicates (I realize that the actual EVC will differ once redistricting occurs in 2010), because several large states that usually aren't competitive like California and Texas are extremely close.  In fact, rather than the typical situation where only a handful of states are competitive, in this election at least 35 states are competitive, and many aren't called for much of the evening.  But in the end, the various third party candidates become the achilles heel of the Snowe/Lingle ticket.