NY-20 Special Election

[Lunar]

Tedisco is really gaining.  Even if Murphy had an extensive absentee organization, this becoming a bit too much of a gap to overcome.

I'd really give Tedisco an 80/20 chance of getting the seat at this point, but this is obviously going to change

[cinyc]

Tedisco is really gaining.  Even if Murphy had an extensive absentee organization, this becoming a bit too much of a gap to overcome.

I'd really give Tedisco an 80/20 chance of getting the seat at this point, but this is obviously going to change

97 votes is not too large to overcome.  Last I computed (Friday night), absentees are trailing the R-D NY-20 registration gap by 4 points.  Anything is possible.  Plus, not every county has recanvassed or announced its count.

The changes game from recanvassing in Saratoga and Washington counties.

[Lunar]

Indeed, but the odds are that these absentee votes won't give a voter edge by several hundred votes, and if they do, it'll probably favor Tedisco.  But we'll have to chill and observe.

a bit tragic since Tedisco seems like the most boring legislator imaginable

[cinyc]

Here's the status of the military and other absentees.  Military ballots are trickling in, closing in on 20% in.



And the county breakdown of absentees by party.  The numbers didn't change much from Friday:

[cinyc]

Indeed, but the odds are that these absentee votes won't give a voter edge by several hundred votes, and if they do, it'll probably favor Tedisco.  But we'll have to chill and observe.

a bit tragic since Tedisco seems like the most boring legislator imaginable

Tedisco may be a lot of things, but the most boring legislator imaginable?  Not by a longshot.  He took on Spitzer - and won.

[Lunar]

Meh. Can you imagine him doing anything interesting in Congress?  he did one thing interesting over an easily poll-able symbolic  and controversial bill with his minimal minority legislative experience.

[cinyc]

Meh. Can you imagine him doing anything interesting in Congress?  he did one thing interesting over an easily poll-able symbolic  and controversial bill with his minimal minority legislative experience.

I can see him pulling some of the same stunts he did as Assembly Minority Leader.


The court in Poughkeepsie ruled that the counties can start counting absentees on Wednesday.  The Republicans wanted to wait until all the military absentees were in on the 14th to start counting.

[Mr.Phips]

Um, how is Tedisco now suddenly up 97 votes?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Um, how is Tedisco now suddenly up 97 votes?

Because the GOP bosses are a bunch of election-rigging crooks.

[Lunar]

which comedy goldmine thread should I post that in?

[Rowan]

It would be helpful to know if this is the results of a complete recanvass or if there are still more counties to finish.

[Rowan]

Murphy up 83 now.

Only 2 small counties left to recanvass, Greene and Essex.

http://www.politickerny.com/2949/murphy-leads-83-judge-says-start-counting-paper-ballots-wednesday-finish-machine-recanvass-asap

[cinyc]

Murphy up 83 now.

Only 2 small counties left to recanvass, Greene and Essex.

http://www.politickerny.com/2949/murphy-leads-83-judge-says-start-counting-paper-ballots-wednesday-finish-machine-recanvass-asap

Greene is not that small - it has about 6.4% of the NY-20 vote in so far.  By comparison, Washington County has 8.4% of the vote - and had the biggest flip in the pre-recanvass numbers.  Essex is the second smallest county in the district.

[Rowan]

Murphy up 83 now.

Only 2 small counties left to recanvass, Greene and Essex.

http://www.politickerny.com/2949/murphy-leads-83-judge-says-start-counting-paper-ballots-wednesday-finish-machine-recanvass-asap

Greene is not that small - it has about 6.4% of the NY-20 vote in so far.  By comparison, Washington County has 8.4% of the vote - and had the biggest flip in the pre-recanvass numbers.  Essex is the second smallest county in the district.

My mistake. I knew Essex was a small one, but wasn't sure about Greene. I think Ostego is the other small one.

[cinyc]

Murphy up 83 now.

Only 2 small counties left to recanvass, Greene and Essex.

http://www.politickerny.com/2949/murphy-leads-83-judge-says-start-counting-paper-ballots-wednesday-finish-machine-recanvass-asap

Greene is not that small - it has about 6.4% of the NY-20 vote in so far.  By comparison, Washington County has 8.4% of the vote - and had the biggest flip in the pre-recanvass numbers.  Essex is the second smallest county in the district.

My mistake. I knew Essex was a small one, but wasn't sure about Greene. I think Ostego is the other small one.

Correct - but only part of Otsego County is in NY-20 (the rest, including the city Oneonta, is in NY-24).  Part of Essex is also outside of the district.

[Ronnie]

Is this race still a tossup?

[cinyc]

Is this race still a tossup?

Pretty much.  The numbers keep going back and forth depending on what county gets recanvassed when. 

If pushed, I'd give a really slight advantage to Murphy.  But how the absentees break is unknowable and obviously will be key - as will how many more military absentees trickle in before the 14th.

[Lunar]

Is this race still a tossup?

considering that the race switches back and forth between who is leading every day

[Ronnie]

To be honest, I'm beginning to become indifferent about the results of this race, since there is a very small chance one vote will make the difference in any major vote in these next few years.

The senate is a different story.

[Brittain33]

To be honest, I'm beginning to become indifferent about the results of this race, since there is a very small chance one vote will make the difference in any major vote in these next few years.

I agree. I was indifferent before the race, except insofar as a R win would drive a media narrative against Obama... but since that isn't going to happen even if Tedisco does pull it out, I'm not going to sweat one seat I thought we'd lose anywhere when she was picked. This race hasn't told us anything the polls on Obama haven't already told us. Republicans need more time before they come back from the wilderness, I would think everyone recognizes this.

[Eraserhead]

I'm still forced to care because I don't want a Republican representing my district.

[cinyc]

New numbers from the NYS Board of Elections:

Jim Tedisco (R):     77,034
Scott Murphy (D):   77,017
Difference:       17

The changes came from Washington County's updated numbers (reported yesterday by politickerny.com) making it into the NYS BOE official unofficial count and a 100 additional votes for Tedisco on the Republican line in Saratoga County's tally.  Perhaps someone couldn't add - or still can't.

Absentee update in a minute.

[cinyc]

Military absentees are still slowly trickling in - over 200 are in now.  Note the curious footnote at the bottom.


General absentee activity is fairly stagnant.  A few more came in from Dutchess and Greene Counties. 



Democrats maintained their 4-point advantage in absentees versus their registration deficit.  It actually grew a bit to 4.13 points from slightly under 4 points.

[cinyc]

For what it's worth, Murphy wins by 128 using a straight-line allocation of currently in absentees by county vote.  Of course, if the absentees break along party lines, Tedisco would win big.

[cinyc]

Today's update:
Jim Tedisco (R):     77,035 (50.0055%)
Scott Murphy (D):   77,018 (49.9945%)
Difference:       17

Both men picked up one vote in Essex County, so the margin remains the same.  Greene and Essex Counties were the only ones left to recanvass as of yesterday.  It sounds like Essex did, which might only leave Greene (unless Greene recanvassed and found no change).

The absentee-in count remains the same at 6,726.  No new military absentees were reported in - 201 are in so far.