NY-20 Special Election

[Holmes]

Of course, if the deadline for military absentees is extended, we likely won't know who wins for at least a week or two.

Would people still vote on Tuesday though? I mean, if it's not even close, I don't think the military ballots will matter too much...

[Franzl]

Of course, if the deadline for military absentees is extended, we likely won't know who wins for at least a week or two.

depends how close the election is.

BTW, are they talking about extending the absentee deadline or pushing back the entire election?

[Eraserhead]

Of course, if the deadline for military absentees is extended, we likely won't know who wins for at least a week or two.

Would people still vote on Tuesday though? I mean, if it's not even close, I don't think the military ballots will matter too much...

It's probably going to be very close though.

[Rowan]

I'm expecting a close race, +/- 3 points either way.

[Eraserhead]

I'm expecting a close race, +/- 3 points either way.

Uh-oh. I actually agree with RowanBrandon on something! Despite Tedisco's ''issues'', the major R registration advantage in the district should not be underestimated, especially in a special election.

[Tender Branson]

A new Siena College NY-20 poll will be out in a few hours ...

[Tender Branson]

New poll by Siena Research Institute:

Murphy (D): 47% (+6)
Tedisco (R): 43% (-2)
Sundwall (L): 2% (+1)

“Murphy has sealed the deal with Democrats, leading 84-11 percent, while Tedisco has the support of less than two-thirds of Republicans, leading 64-27 percent. Independents are virtually tied, with Tedisco leading 45-44 percent, after trailing with independents by six points two weeks ago and leading by 14 points four weeks ago,” Greenberg said.

Favorable Ratings:

Murphy: 49% favorable, 38% unfavorable
Tedisco: 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable
Sundwall: 7% favorable, 14% unfavorable

Gillibrand: 76% favorable, 18% unfavorable
Obama: 65% favorable, 28% unfavorable

This SRI 20th C.D. survey was conducted March 25-26, 2009 by telephone calls to 917 likely voters. It has a margin of error of + 3.2 percentage points.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/20th%20CD%20SNY%20Poll%203%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

[Rowan]

Ugh.

[Franzl]

excellent, although the Libertarian won't be on the ballot...not sure why they polled his support.

[Tender Branson]

Ugh.

I have checked the registration statistics of NY-20 and it breaks down as followed:

41% Republicans: Tedisco 64-27
33% Independents/Others: Tedisco 45-44
26% Democrats: Murphy 84-11

So, if the composition on Election Day is like the registration composition, Murphy leads 47-44.

[Rowan]

I'm just mad that Tedisco is giving up 27% of Republicans. He must utterly suck.

[Franzl]

I'm just mad that Tedisco is giving up 27% of Republicans. He must utterly suck.

Correct.

[Brittain33]

I'm just mad that Tedisco is giving up 27% of Republicans. He must utterly suck.

Correct.

Bad macro conditions turn otherwise acceptable candidates into bad ones. Tedisco isn't setting the world on fire, but in a different environment, Murphy wouldn't be doing so well and Tedisco would be taken more seriously.

[Franzl]

I'm just mad that Tedisco is giving up 27% of Republicans. He must utterly suck.

Correct.

Bad macro conditions turn otherwise acceptable candidates into bad ones. Tedisco isn't setting the world on fire, but in a different environment, Murphy wouldn't be doing so well and Tedisco would be taken more seriously.

Oh I don't think Tedisco is that terrible, but for some personal reason....I dislike him quite strongly.

[Franzl]

by the way:

WASHINGTON (CNN) – One day after the Justice Department filed suit against the state of New York over the counting of military absentee ballots in next week's special election, it announced an agreement with state officials that would extend the deadline for those voters to mid-April.

The department's lawsuit against the state and Gov. David Paterson, filed in federal district court yesterday, charged that nine of the 10 counties in New York's 20th congressional district had not given military voters enough time to fill out their ballots and return them before the deadline. The original deadline — seven days after the election — will be extended by another six days if the agreement is approved in federal court.

The new deadline of April 13 would bring the state into compliance with federal law that requires each military voter be given at least 30 days to fill out their ballot.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/03/26/doj-reaches-agreement-with-ny-over-military-ballots/

[Brittain33]

Great, so does this mean we'll still likely know the winner on 4/1, unless it's very close?

[Franzl]

Great, so does this mean we'll still likely know the winner on 4/1, unless it's very close?

yep...that's right.

Although it means we'll have even longer to wait if it is extremely close

[Tender Branson]

Great, so does this mean we'll still likely know the winner on 4/1, unless it's very close?

How many NY-20 voters are actually in the military and deployed overseas ?

0.1% ?

[Holmes]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/12877/sundwall-endorses-murphy

[© tweed]

'Stalinist election law' would seem to be self-contradicting.

[Eraserhead]

New poll by Siena Research Institute:

Murphy (D): 47% (+6)
Tedisco (R): 43% (-2)
Sundwall (L): 2% (+1)

“Murphy has sealed the deal with Democrats, leading 84-11 percent, while Tedisco has the support of less than two-thirds of Republicans, leading 64-27 percent. Independents are virtually tied, with Tedisco leading 45-44 percent, after trailing with independents by six points two weeks ago and leading by 14 points four weeks ago,” Greenberg said.

Favorable Ratings:

Murphy: 49% favorable, 38% unfavorable
Tedisco: 48% favorable, 41% unfavorable
Sundwall: 7% favorable, 14% unfavorable

Gillibrand: 76% favorable, 18% unfavorable
Obama: 65% favorable, 28% unfavorable

This SRI 20th C.D. survey was conducted March 25-26, 2009 by telephone calls to 917 likely voters. It has a margin of error of + 3.2 percentage points.

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedFiles/Home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/20th%20CD%20SNY%20Poll%203%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

[Hash]

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Epic fail.

[minionofmidas]

Eh. He should have left the "Stalinist" part out, but otherwise well written.

[Holmes]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/27/osama-bin-laden-resurface_n_180080.html

Where have I seen this before...? Oh yeah. There is no God.

[Tender Branson]

What exactly is or was Gillibrand's stance on the Death Penalty ?