NY-20 Special Election

[Lunar]

I was joking, you rednecks upstate aren't that bad.  Hell, I bet y'all can read if the words are small.

Anyway, Obama's not going to get really involved (see Georgia run-off), maybe a radio ad.  The Democrats' big X factor is whether Gillibrand will cut a TV ad.

[Sam Spade]

I was joking, you rednecks upstate aren't that bad.  Hell, I bet y'all can read if the words are small.

Anyway, Obama's not going to get really involved (see Georgia run-off), maybe a radio ad.  The Democrats' big X factor is whether Gillibrand will cut a TV ad.

Running an ad mentioning guns, illegals or marriage (or anything similar) might just do her in with the 2010 primary, considering her *present* views on such issues (which have moved considerably).

[Eraserhead]

I was joking, you rednecks upstate aren't that bad.  Hell, I bet y'all can read if the words are small.

Anyway, Obama's not going to get really involved (see Georgia run-off), maybe a radio ad.  The Democrats' big X factor is whether Gillibrand will cut a TV ad.

Reminder that I'm from The Bronx originally. Don't lump me in with any hillbillies.

And sure, Obama won't get involved but he should imo.

[Lunar]

I was joking, you rednecks upstate aren't that bad.  Hell, I bet y'all can read if the words are small.

Anyway, Obama's not going to get really involved (see Georgia run-off), maybe a radio ad.  The Democrats' big X factor is whether Gillibrand will cut a TV ad.

Running an ad mentioning guns, illegals or marriage (or anything similar) might just do her in with the 2010 primary, considering her *present* views on such issues (which have moved considerably).

I imagine she's capable of appearing in a 30 second ad to help a candidate without talking about illegals or handguns.

[Lunar]

http://www.politickerny.com/1955/sundwall-will-scramble-do-petitions

a Libertarian is trying to get on the ballot -- I assume that would marginally help the Dems

[Ronnie]

http://www.politickerny.com/1955/sundwall-will-scramble-do-petitions

a Libertarian is trying to get on the ballot -- I assume that would marginally help the Dems

Oh my God look at his forehead.

[Holmes]

Murphy's turning out to be a good candidate. He's been campaigning a lot in Hoosick Falls, opened an office in Saratoga Springs(actually Gillibrand's old one), has gotten other people to campaign with him, like Schumer and Tonko of NY-21, made fun of Tedisco's leadership for not deciding whether to support or oppose the stimulus, and seems like the more open candidate, especially with the whole debate issue. He was also endorsed by Public Employees Federation, which has about 59,000 workers in the district.

I'm confident.

[Lunar]

If anything makes me confident of this district for the Democrats, it is this video, put out by Tedisco's own campaign:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7u9bH0ZTGE&feature=channel_page

This isn't live, you're able to like, do a retake where Tedisco isn't obviously monotonously reading cue cards right behind the camera for a 50 something second clip. 

Not that I'm confident, but just, the lack of personality is astounding

[Torie]

If anything makes me confident of this district for the Democrats, it is this video, put out by Tedisco's own campaign:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7u9bH0ZTGE&feature=channel_page

This isn't live, you're able to like, do a retake where Tedisco isn't obviously monotonously reading cue cards right behind the camera for a 50 something second clip. 

Not that I'm confident, but just, the lack of personality is astounding

Ya, amazingly lame. The guy's pic is next to the word "political hack" in the dictionary. What does he stand for?  Well voting money into his pathetic little economic dump of a district is what he stands for. He's a waste of space really.

[Ronnie]

Crap we can actually lose this race?

[Lunar]

Compare their two official TV ads:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs7WgKpBa1E&eurl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFYOWIPYr_s

Jim needs someone else to talk for him and he never actually talks on camera.

[Ronnie]

Compare their two official TV ads:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs7WgKpBa1E&eurl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFYOWIPYr_s

Jim needs someone else to talk for him and he never actually talks on camera.

Whoa, Murphy's ad has like 3 times more views.

[Keystone Phil]

Compare their two official TV ads:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs7WgKpBa1E&eurl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFYOWIPYr_s

Jim needs someone else to talk for him and he never actually talks on camera.

Whoa, Murphy's ad has like 3 times more views.

OH NO IT'S OVER




It's the Internets, dude. Every Democratic politico in the country is following the race and we know how the dominate here.

[Ronnie]

Compare their two official TV ads:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs7WgKpBa1E&eurl
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFYOWIPYr_s

Jim needs someone else to talk for him and he never actually talks on camera.

Whoa, Murphy's ad has like 3 times more views.

OH NO IT'S OVER




It's the Internets, dude. Every Democratic politico in the country is following the race and we know how the dominate here.

I really wasn't inferring anything.

By the way, how are the GOP turnout efforts going in the district?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He reminds me of the guy at my job who had to read the Enterprise Deployment Guide to the IT guy calling in word for word. Like he sounded exactly the same.

[Holmes]

Crap we can actually lose this race?

You were one who assumed safe R right?

[Ronnie]

Crap we can actually lose this race?

You were one who assumed safe R right?

[Holmes]

Crap we can actually lose this race?

You were one who assumed safe R right?

When the seat was vacant, did you assume there was a Republican advantage? The whole candidate selection was weird to begin with since there was no primary and the Republicans seem to be stuck with the more... awkward candidate and that probably cancelled out any advantage there was.

[Lunar]

Of course he thought there was a Republican advantage - there is.  Republicans have a large registration advantage.

[Ronnie]

Of course he thought there was a Republican advantage - there is.  Republicans have a large registration advantage.

Also, Tedisco has some nice gravitas, compared to Murphy who is a political rookie.

[Sam Spade]

Tedisco has been a surprisingly mediocre candidate so far.  May downgrade soon.

I would like to see a poll or an attempt at a poll, however.

[Lunar]

These days, if you want to get ahold of an Assembly Minority staffer, you’re better off calling the Tedisco for Congress campaign office than the minority leader’s government office.

Seven Assembly minority office staffers have taken leaves of absence to work on the campaign, including the conference’s top three spokesmen — Communications Director Joshua Fitzpatrick, Spokesman Dan Bazile, and Director of Regional Information Services Adam Kramer.

http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/11754/assembly-minority-loses-staff-to-tediscos-campaign

[minionofmidas]

They're both uninspiring. Just in different ways.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Of course he thought there was a Republican advantage - there is.  Republicans have a large registration advantage.

And Democrats have a large registration advantage in Oklahoma. So what?

[Lunar]

Are you acting dumb intentionally?  You don't see any correlation between the large Republican registration advantage and a possible Republican advantage?  Ok, let me spill this out better: in a special election (low turnout), Republicans have an advantage: see Louisiana, Georgia, etc.  In a Cook R+5 district, the Republicans have an advantage.