NY-20 Special Election

[justfollowingtheelections]

How important in politics was Gillibrand before she ran?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirsten_Gillibrand

Not mentioned in the article is the fact that her father was one of Al D'Amato's key staff members (in addition to being a lobbyist).

I thought she worked as an intern or something for D'Amato, but her father was a Pataki staff member.

[Eraserhead]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

[Mr.Phips]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400.  I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

[Beet]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400.  I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Only political hacks follow things like congressional special elections. Brian Bilbray winning in 2006 didn't foretell anything about what was to happen in the fall.

[Mr.Phips]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400.  I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Only political hacks follow things like congressional special elections. Brian Bilbray winning in 2006 didn't foretell anything about what was to happen in the fall.

But Bilbray barely won. 

[Eraserhead]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400. I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Was that meant to be serious?

[Mr.Phips]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400. I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Was that meant to be serious?

Yes it was.  I think Tedisco will probably win this race with around 67% of the vote. 

[Smash255]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400. I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Was that meant to be serious?

Yes it was.  I think Tedisco will probably win this race with around 67% of the vote. 

What exactly is that based on?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400.  I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Only political hacks follow things like congressional special elections. Brian Bilbray winning in 2006 didn't foretell anything about what was to happen in the fall.

But Bilbray barely won. 

Scott Eliott of Election Projections put it this way. If Bilbray wins by less then 5 the GOP is in trouble, If its between 5 and 8 then there is nothing to fortell, and if its 8 or greater the GOP will do very well.

Bilbray won 49-45(might have been 49-46. I can't remember)

[Eraserhead]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400. I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Was that meant to be serious?

Yes it was.  I think Tedisco will probably win this race with around 67% of the vote. 

I live in NY-20. Tedisco will probably win if turnout is low but there is no way in hell that that is going to happen.

[cinyc]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400. I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Was that meant to be serious?

Yes it was.  I think Tedisco will probably win this race with around 67% of the vote. 

I live in NY-20. Tedisco will probably win if turnout is low but there is no way in hell that that is going to happen.

For a special election?  Turnout will be low - very low.  It always is.

[Eraserhead]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400. I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Was that meant to be serious?

Yes it was.  I think Tedisco will probably win this race with around 67% of the vote. 

I live in NY-20. Tedisco will probably win if turnout is low but there is no way in hell that that is going to happen.

For a special election?  Turnout will be low - very low.  It always is.

I know that. I'm saying that there is no way that Tedisco will get 67% of the vote.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm now one of Murphy's 38 supporters on facebook. lol.

And Tedisco has around 400. I think Tedisco will probably get close to 70% of the vote in the special election.  Is this going to be a good narrative for Democrats going into 2010?

Was that meant to be serious?

Yes it was.  I think Tedisco will probably win this race with around 67% of the vote. 

I live in NY-20. Tedisco will probably win if turnout is low but there is no way in hell that that is going to happen.

For a special election?  Turnout will be low - very low.  It always is.

I know that. I'm saying that there is no way that Tedisco will get 67% of the vote.

Even 57% would be pushing it in my opinion. His ceiling is prpbably 54% or 55%.

[Lunar]

The DCCC put out some oppo research, but other than that, they have been largely absent:
http://www.politickerny.com/1813/why-dccc-fighting-gillibrand-seat

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What's he doing, driving an RV to work or filling up his friends cars?

[cinyc]

The DCCC put out some oppo research, but other than that, they have been largely absent:
http://www.politickerny.com/1813/why-dccc-fighting-gillibrand-seat

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What's he doing, driving an RV to work or filling up his friends cars?

Maybe he drove to Buffalo and back for a hearing, or Montauk and back for a meeting, or Buffalo to Montauk, or to a conference somewhere far away. 

Two days out of eight years?  And an average of $2600 per year for gas?  Big deal.   If the car got 15MPG, that would be 20,000 miles per year at $2 a gallon - not out of the ordinary.   They're making a mountain out of a molehill.

[Mr.Phips]

The DCCC put out some oppo research, but other than that, they have been largely absent:
http://www.politickerny.com/1813/why-dccc-fighting-gillibrand-seat

You must be logged in to read this quote.

What's he doing, driving an RV to work or filling up his friends cars?

Maybe he drove to Buffalo and back for a hearing, or Montauk and back for a meeting, or Buffalo to Montauk, or to a conference somewhere far away. 

Two days out of eight years?  And an average of $2600 per year for gas?  Big deal.   If the car got 15MPG, that would be 20,000 miles per year at $2 a gallon - not out of the ordinary.   They're making a mountain out of a molehill.

Kinda like Republicans making an issue out of one of Obama's nominee's having a $900 tax lien. 

[Lunar]

http://www.politickerny.com/1893/source-paterson-call-special-election-march-31

MARK YOUR CALENDARS

[Holmes]

Oh, Jim.

[Lunar]

Murphy runs an ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs7WgKpBa1E

[Eraserhead]

http://www.politickerny.com/1893/source-paterson-call-special-election-march-31

MARK YOUR CALENDARS

WOOT! It's on!

[Verily]

Murphy runs an ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bs7WgKpBa1E

Solid introductory ad. Played up the strengths of his business career, which makes it difficult to attack, and he definitely struck the right chord for any race upstate (stop our decline, dammit!). Anything from Tedisco yet?

[Meeker]

Great ad. That and the late election date gives me new hope.

[Eraserhead]

Obama should appear in an ad for him.

[Lunar]

Obama should appear in an ad for him.

Obama's not THAT popular for the electorate that will turn out late March, which will be strongly Republican.  Besides, Obama can't afford to look so petty.  Gillibrand is the one that needs to cut 1-2 ads that run a lot, praising Murphy's stances on guns and government transparency and whatever those rednecks care about

[Eraserhead]

Obama should appear in an ad for him.

Obama's not THAT popular for the electorate that will turn out late March, which will be strongly Republican.  Besides, Obama can't afford to look so petty.  Gillibrand is the one that needs to cut 1-2 ads that run a lot, praising Murphy's stances on guns and government transparency and whatever those rednecks care about

This area isn't as hillbilly as you think (well, a select areas are) and Obama is widely loved here at the moment, even by many Republicans. And there is nothing petty about helping out the party. We need to stop with the bipartisan bull crap which is clearly proving itself to be ineffective and maintain our hold on important seats like this.

Well, that's my two cents anyway.