The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Democratic Hawk]

Rasmussen shows the following result today (nationally of course, 3-day tracker):

64% Approve
29% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

Rasmussen has released polls for Texas and Tennessee:

Texas

62% approve (41% strongly) / 35% disapprove (19% strongly)

Tennessee

60% approve (39% strongly) / 35% disapprove (21% strongly)

Link

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

According to Gallup, Obama starts with a 68-12 approval rating (Jan. 21-23).

That's better than Clinton (58-20) and Bush (57-25) and comparable with Eisenhower (68-7), Kennedy (72-6) and Carter (66-8).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113962/Obama-Starts-Job-Approval.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113923/History-Foretells-Obama-First-Job-Approval-Rating.aspx

Not so good over at Rasmussen, however

Approve 61% (-1); strongly 44% (-1)

Disapprove 33% (+4); strongly 18% (+2)

Link

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Rasmussen (25-01-2009)

60% Approve (-1)
36% Disapprove (+3)

Not surprisingly, partisan and ideological divides remain clear when it comes to evaluating the President. The number of political conservatives who Strongly Disapprove of Obama’s performance has increased from 29% on the morning of Inauguration Day to 38% today. Only 17% of conservatives Strongly Approve.

At the other extreme, 79% of liberal voters Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance to date while just 5% Strongly Disapprove.

On a partisan basis, the President earns a +68 rating from Democrats, a -23 rating from Republicans, and a +8 from those not affiliated with either major party. Among the unaffiliated voters, 32% Strongly Approve and 24% Strongly Disapprove.

[Democratic Hawk]

Well, according to Gallup he's in better shape today:

69% Approve (+1)
13% Disapprove (+1)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113968/Obama-Initial-Approval-Ratings-Historical-Context.aspx

By Party Affiliation

Democrats: Approve 88%; Disapprove 2%; No opinion 10% (+86)
Independents: Approve 62%; Disapprove 12%; No opinion 27% (+50)
Republicans: Approve 43%; Disapprove 30%; No opinion 27% (+13)

Other approvals:

Liberals 83%; Moderates 75%; Conservatives 52%

18-to-29 year olds 79%; Nonwhites 78%; Women 71%; Men 64%

Jan. 21-24 Gallup Poll Daily tracking

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

How the hell are a majority of cons approving of a lib?

Rasmussen, on the other hand, tells a different story. 17% of conservatives strongly approve; 38% strongly disapprove

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Rasmussen (26-01-2009)

60% Approve (n/c)
37% Disapprove (+1)

Forty-six percent (46%) of women strongly approve along with 36% of men. Eighty-one percent (81%) of African-American voters Strongly Approve along with 37% of White voters. Among those who see the economy as the most important issue, 55% Strongly Approve.

At the same time, the President’s negatives have risen a bit since he assumed office and 20% now Strongly Disapprove of his performance. That stems largely from growing disapproval from conservatives. The higher negatives give Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of +21, his lowest rating as President or President-elect since before Thanksgiving.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Rasmussen (27-01-2009)

62% Approve (+2)
36% Disapprove (-1)

Among those who see the economy as the top issue, 55% Strongly Approve of Obama’s performance. He also gets such upbeat ratings from 64% of those who view domestic issues as tops. Among national security voters, 19% Strongly Approve. Nineteen percent (19%) of cultural issue voters Strongly Approve as do 11% of fiscal policy voters.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Update:

North Carolina (PPP)

52% Approve, 41% Disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_218.pdf

NC can't be right. 

Well, according to PPP, only 50% of 18-to-29-year-olds approve of Obama, while 46% disapprove; and this was the only age demographic he carried in November by a thumping 76-24 against McCain, according to exits

He has a net approval rating of 19% (56-37) among the 35-45s, which he lost 48-52; +12 (53-41) among the 46-65s, which he lost 43-56; and +4 (46-42) among the 65+, which he lost 43-56

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Pew Research [February 18, 2009]

Approve 64%; Disapprove 17%

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1125/terrorism-guantanamo-torture-polling

[Democratic Hawk]

Texas (Rasmussen)

Link

Approve 50% (37% strongly) / Disapprove 49% (40% strongly)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama's Approval Equal To or Better Than Bush's, Clinton's [Gallup, March 16, 2009]

Biggest change since inauguration has been decline among Republicans

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116845/Obama-Approval-Equal-Better-Bush-Clinton.aspx

Mid-March Ratings

Obama (2009): 61% Approve; 28% Disapprove
Bush (2005): 58% Approve; 29% Disapprove
Clinton (1993): 53% Approve; 34% Disapprove

Obama Job Approval, By Party I/D

Republicans: 26% Approve; 63% Disapprove

Independents: 59% Approve; 26% Disapprove

Democrats: 91% Approve; 4% Disapprove

Gallup Poll Daily Tracking, March 9-15, 2009

In sum, since his inauguration, Obama's approvals remain stratospheric among Democrats; steady among Independents but they show a marked decline among Republicans

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama taking the "steering wheel" and axing capitalist failures is probably not a bad thing for his polling numbers.

Rasmussen today:

59% Approve (+1)
39% Disapprove (-1)

First time below 40% since March 4 ...

38% Strongly Approve (nc)
27% Strongly Disapprove (-3)

"That’s the first time his Approval Index rating has reached double digits since the first week in March."

It's because he is now at 32% among Republicans after being in the low 20's for the past month. Hard to tell if this is lasting change or just an outlier.

Seemingly, an outlier given the shift from March 31 to April 2:

Approve 56% (-3); Disapprove 44% (+5) [Strongly approve 35% (-3); Strongly Disapprove 30% (+3)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

All State/National Journal

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/nj_20090423_4001.php

Presidential approval

Approve 61.1% (strongly 38%; somewhat 23.1%)
Disapprove 27.6% (somewhat 7.6%; strongly 20%)

Right Direction/Wrong Track (Country)

Right Direction 47.2%
Wrong Track 41.5%

Right Direction/Wrong Track (Economy)

Right Direction 30.3%
Wrong Track 54.6%

Obama and the Swells by Ronald Brownstein

Polls show President Obama gaining support from both affluent and blue-collar voters.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/nj_20090425_7496.php

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Gallup the outlier? Everything is trending down except them.

Not quite. Both Pew and Fox News have trended up compared with their immediately previous polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html#polls

Pew: Approve 63% (+2) / Disapprove 26% (nc)

Fox News: Approve 62% (+4) / Disapprove 29% (-3)

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Georgia- Rasmussen

Approve 54%
Disapprove 46%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_election_2010_georgia_april_23_2009

So, Obama is more popular in Georgia than in Florida.

Oooookay!

I must say that those are some... interesting... results.

Using Rasmussen's Presidential Approval Index (strongly approve - strongly disapprove), it's +7 in Georgia and +1 in Florida

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

SurveyUSA

Approve 58%
Disapprove 38%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ac7c1602-9851-41a1-bf10-cfc2a8f69022

Another interesting question, the do-over:

Obama 54%
McCain 39%

Let's interpret that as a "vote-over". 93% are decided, so that leaves 7% undecided. A third of the undecided don't vote for President, and of the undecided who end up voting they go 3-2 for McCain (because those voters are more likely to be Republicans):

Add 40% x 2/3 x 7% = 1.867% to Obama's 54% (55.867%)
Add 60% x 2/3 x 7% = 2.800% to McCain's 39% (41.800%)

Add the sum of their results from 100% to get a percentage of voters (97.667%)

Divide each by .97667 to reduce the number of non-voters polled, and you get:

Obama 57.20%
McCain 42.80%

2008 reality:

Obama 52.87%
McCain 45.61%

Likely effect of a vote with a 57-43 spread instead of 52-47:

That assumes that Obama gains as much in percentage in California as in Kentucky. Without such an assumption, things look very bad for the GOP in 2012.

FWIW: Doesn't GA also flip under this scenario?

I didn't realize that Obama was within 4 points of winning Georgia -- and the difference is slightly more than 4%.

You are right, and I make a subtle correction for the Dakotas --

Nebraska and West Virginia get very close.

SC, ND and SD could switch given that Obama wins the South in this rematch and trounces McCain in the Midwest, which if I'm not mistaken, includes the Plains for polling purposes. A swing to McCain in the West, may see MT elude Obama

[Democratic Hawk]

Missouri (Democracy Corps (D), 800 LV, April 28-30)

56% Approve
39% Disapprove

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/05/a-carnahan-advantage-in-missouri-senate-race/?section=Survey

And that coming from a sample which is 17% liberal; 32% moderate; and 46% conservative [according to the 2008 exits, they comprised 19%, 45% and 36%, respectively]

[Democratic Hawk]

pbrower2a, approval ratings doesn't mean votes. Get that, and stop trying to say because someone approves of Obama they will vote for him.

On the other hand, of course, disapproval ratings don't necessarily mean votes against. In 2004, 9% of those who approved of Bush (53%) voted for Kerry, while 6% of those who didn't (46%) voted for Bush

[Democratic Hawk]

National - Ipsos-McClatchy [June 4-8, 2009]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4429

Approve 64% (-1)
Disapprove 32% (+1)

1023 adults; 823 registered voters

[Democratic Hawk]

NBC/WSJ Obama Approval
Approve 56%
Disapprove 34%

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ-NBC_Poll090617.pdf

...Wow... and that's from NBC.

...and the Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party has a +8 favorability rating (45-37) and the Republican Party a -19 favorability rating (25-44)

Sample: Dem/Dem-leaning Independent 41%; Independent 18%; Rep/Rep-leaning Independent: 30%

[Democratic Hawk]

National (CBS/NYT):

Obama (Job Approval):

Approve 63% (-); Disapprove 26% (-)

Foreign policy: Approve 59% (-); Disapprove 25% (-)
The threat of terrorism: Approve 57% (+2); Disapprove 24% (-4)
The economy: Approve 57% (+1); Disapprove 35% (+2)
Health care: Approve 44%; Disapprove 34%
Problems facing the auto industry: Approve 41%; Disapprove 46%

Views of the budget deficit:

41% say the government should spend money to stimulate the economy, even if it means increasing the deficit; 54% say the government should not spend money to stimulate the economy and should instead focus on reducing the deficit

30% say that the Obama administration has developed a clear strategy for dealing with the budget deficit; 60% say it has not

Democratic Party: Favorable 57% (+1); Unfavorable 32% (-2)
Republican Party: Favorable 28% (-3); Unfavorable 58% (-)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/us/politics/18poll.html?_r=2&ref=politics

CBS/NYT interviewed 895 adults between June 12-16, 2009. Sample: Democrat 35% (-); Republican 24% (+4); Independent 31% (-5)

[Democratic Hawk]

National (CBS/NYT):

Obama (Job Approval):

Approve 63% (-); Disapprove 26% (-)

Foreign policy: Approve 59% (-); Disapprove 25% (-)
The threat of terrorism: Approve 57% (+2); Disapprove 24% (-4)
The economy: Approve 57% (+1); Disapprove 35% (+2)
Health care: Approve 44%; Disapprove 34%
Problems facing the auto industry: Approve 41%; Disapprove 46%

Views of the budget deficit:

41% say the government should spend money to stimulate the economy, even if it means increasing the deficit; 54% say the government should not spend money to stimulate the economy and should instead focus on reducing the deficit

30% say that the Obama administration has developed a clear strategy for dealing with the budget deficit; 60% say it has not

Democratic Party: Favorable 57% (+1); Unfavorable 32% (-2)
Republican Party: Favorable 28% (-3); Unfavorable 58% (-)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/18/us/politics/18poll.html?_r=2&ref=politics

CBS/NYT interviewed 895 adults between June 12-16, 2009. Sample: Democrat 35% (-); Republican 24% (+4); Independent 31% (-5)

It's quite interesting that Obama's approval rating is higher than the issues, which proves that many Americans are "in love" with Obama, despite the fact they don't like what he's doing...

The WSJ/NBC poll is even more telling on that score:

48% said they like the president personally and approve of most of his policies
27% said they like the president personally but disapprove of many of his policies

3% said they don't like the president personally but approve of many of his policies
16% said they don't like the president personally and disapprove of many of his policies

[Democratic Hawk]

Rasmussen 21 June 2009:

Approve 53% (-1)

Disapprove 46% (-)

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 32% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -2. That’s the President’s lowest rating to date and the first time the Presidential Approval Index has fallen below zero for Obama.

Sixty percent (60%) of Democrats Strongly Approve of the President’s performance but only 8% of Republicans share that view. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Republicans Strongly Disapprove.

Six months into to the job, is the honeymoon over?

[Democratic Hawk]

Rasmussen 21 June 2009:

Approve 53% (-1)

Disapprove 46% (-)

Six months into to the job, is the honeymoon over?

It's over. That approval is now very close to the results of the 2008 Presidential election. Such will be adequate in 2012.

It could be the mess in Iran; the GOP finally has something to capitalize upon. As the #1 Diplomat, the President can't stir up trouble, but the Opposition Party can get away with far more stridency.  That's how democracy works.

I'm not sure if it's Iran. Rasmussen released polling data on Friday:

Link

Has President Obama been too aggressive in supporting the reformers in Iran, not agressive enough, of has the response been about right?

Too aggressive: 9%
Not agressive enough: 35%
About right: 43%
Not sure: 14%

[Democratic Hawk]

Does anyone have approval info for Presidents Carter, Reagan, Bush Sr, Clinton and Bush Jr from this point in their first term?

According to Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

Jimmy Carter 63% (June 1977)
Ronald Reagan 59% (June 1981)
George H. W. Bush 70% (June 1989)
Bill Clinton 41% (June 1993)
George W. Bush 54% (June 2001)

Average for U.S. Presidents Since Franklin D. Roosevelt: 55%
Average for Elected Presidents' Second Quarter: 62%

Barack Obama's Most Recent Weekly Approval Rating Average: 61% (Jun 8-14, 2009)
 
Barack Obama's Term Average: 63%
 
Barack Obama's High Point: 69% (Jan 22-24, 2009)
 
Barack Obama's Low Point: 59% (several times; most recent: Jun 7-9, 2009)

Though Obama currently stands at 58%