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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031172 times)
Tidewater_Wave
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« on: February 29, 2012, 08:17:13 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #1 on: February 29, 2012, 09:06:35 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

I think Bush was around 47-50% around election time in 2004 and won by about 3 points. So on average Obama needs to be around 46-49% to win I would think. I think if there was a snap election now, with a month to campaign, Obama would barely win against Romney, by a few more points against Santorum and would destroy Gingrich and Paul. If he can more or less keep the numbers he has right now through election day, he should be able to win.

I think Bush was at 54% on election night as Clinton was in 1996.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #2 on: February 29, 2012, 09:13:14 pm »

Early exit polls favor democrats by 10-15. I learned after 2004 not to listen to them or talk to anyone about them on election day. It's interesting you pointed that out. I can still remember going back from the polls and listening to Dick Morris talk about Kerry winning by 15 in states that he lost by 5-10 based on early exit polling. As soon as the results started I learned. Exit polls are accurate, but not early exit polls.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #3 on: February 29, 2012, 09:20:32 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.



Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #4 on: February 29, 2012, 09:36:03 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.



Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.

Polling numbers, take Ohio for example. The President is underwater in Ohio, yet he still has a lead against Romney, Santorum etc. Why because the voters don't like the alternatives. Presidential elections are more about choices then referendum on the incumbent.

And about independents, Mitt is losing them rapidly to Obama if you look at the polls. At this point, Mitt has to hope for another economic downturn. If the election were held today, Obama would win by a comfortable margin even at a 45/46% approval rating. The electoral map and recent polling data are too much in his favor.

Yes and those who don't approve will go for the GOP nominee unless Obama is above 49%. 2/3 of voters break for the incumbent if his approval rating is above 50% and if it is below 50%, then 2/3 break for the challenger. It's a similar idea to having to choose if you want to live 4 more years with someone you're not happy with. This trend is shown in actual votes rather than polls.
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Tidewater_Wave
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Posts: 520
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« Reply #5 on: February 29, 2012, 11:11:24 pm »

Let's put it this way. You've been married to someone for almost 4 years and have to make a decision as to whether or not you want to be locked into another 4 years but aren't sure.  Are you going to put yourself through 4 more years of the same if you aren't completely and totally sure that you'll be happy?  If Obama is 49% or better on election night, he'll win.  At 48% he's talking about winning without the popular vote.  Any less than that and Ralph Nader would have to take votes from the GOP or there is a third party candidate like Ron Paul. The same rules apply to Obama as any other incumbent since they started taking polls. As for right now, it's February.

Yes, if people think the alternative sucks.(in this case Romney).

People may not be satisfy with Obama, but that doesn't mean they won't vote for him.



Based on what though? I'm sure there's democrats who disapprove of Obama but won't vote GOP in the election. The same could be said for Bush 8 years ago. The issue is independents who don't pay attention except every 4 years for a week or so. That's who actually decides elections. What you're saying maybe true for a few but again, people look for change if they aren't satisfied. You can think that Romney sucks but that doesn't mean people will stick by Obama under poor circumstances. History and patterns doesn't always pan out and has exceptions but most times follows suit. Romney will win if Obama's approval rating is below 49% and the same goes for just about anyone who runs.

Polling numbers, take Ohio for example. The President is underwater in Ohio, yet he still has a lead against Romney, Santorum etc. Why because the voters don't like the alternatives. Presidential elections are more about choices then referendum on the incumbent.

And about independents, Mitt is losing them rapidly to Obama if you look at the polls. At this point, Mitt has to hope for another economic downturn. If the election were held today, Obama would win by a comfortable margin even at a 45/46% approval rating. The electoral map and recent polling data are too much in his favor.

Yes and those who don't approve will go for the GOP nominee unless Obama is above 49%. 2/3 of voters break for the incumbent if his approval rating is above 50% and if it is below 50%, then 2/3 break for the challenger. It's a similar idea to having to choose if you want to live 4 more years with someone you're not happy with. This trend is shown in actual votes rather than polls.

According to your logic, Oregon would flip for Romney because Obama is below 49% there......which we know isn't going to happen.


Again based on what? Look OR has been pretty close with the exception of 2008. It's February and I'm not ruling anyone out of many states until late October. In 2000 Bush could've won that state and was close again in 2004. Romeny is moderate enough to be competitive. Things may improve for Obama in particular in Oregon and so he'd win but OR is nowhere near a done deal at this point. Also, my logic is based on the trends of polling in presidential elections.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2012, 12:56:34 am »

Right everything is going perfect for Obama and you shouldn't have anything to worry about. It sounds like your party is in great shape and the GOP is done forever. You're right on with that. Look at 2000 which was closer ago than 1984. I'm not betting on Romney winning Oregon but it should be competitive.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2012, 10:19:23 pm »

Did anyone see the entusiasm numbers. Democrats who are enthusiastic are at 44% and Republicans at 53%. This tells me that the Democrats are way over confident in winning this fall. Gas prices seem to have him down to 48% approval rating as well.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2012, 10:40:06 pm »

Did anyone see the entusiasm numbers. Democrats who are enthusiastic are at 44% and Republicans at 53%. This tells me that the Democrats are way over confident in winning this fall. Gas prices seem to have him down to 48% approval rating as well.

From a purely objective position, the Dems aren't as enthusiastic because unlike the GOP they aren't being fired up by a primary race.

I'll give you that I may have slightly overstated what the numbers say, but the GOP still wants Obama out of office more than Democrats want him to stay. Hardly anyone can see anything positive in the guy. Clinton at least cared about people, Bush had a goofy personality that we could all relate to, no one was colder than FDR but the country saw how much he loved the game of politics. Obama seems like he doesn't enjoy anything about being president other than the perks of a $180,000 vacation for his wife and flying around on fancy jets. If anything he seems annoyed by the fact he has to compromise and make decisions. He can't stand at all the fact that anyone disagrees with him. These are a few reasons that people in his own party aren't thrilled about him. His opponents all have passion for what they believe in. Romney wants to help those who are struggling by using his experience in the private sector, Santorum stands by his family and values, Gingrich loves leading a conservative movement, and Paul is very proud of his ideaology.  With Obama we pretty much see a sarcastic smart ass who argues with anyone over anything like the health care bill for example. He sounded like a teenager arguing with his parents while they told him no. Stubborn til the end.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2012, 10:58:32 pm »

He was recovering until gas prices went up a week or 2 ago. Turnout in the GOP primaries isn't much different from 2008. Anything can happen either way at this point because it's too early to predict anything with the exception of maybe 20 states. As of right now I think it will be 51-49 one way or the other and come down to Ohio.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2012, 04:55:30 pm »

Republicans leading is a tremendous sign for them. Even if we were down by 5 I'd still bet on us winning the house. If I remember correctly more people voted Democrat for congress in 2002 and 2004 and the GOP still won. I don't mean in terms of party turnout, but based on the percentages of people voting for a candidate in either party throughout the nation.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #11 on: March 03, 2012, 07:30:28 pm »

46% baby!
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #12 on: March 03, 2012, 07:47:06 pm »

I still don't understand why in 2012 people are looking anywhere else besides Rasmussen. They predicted 50/50 correctly in 2004 and only missed 4 states in 2008. Each election since their existence in 2003 they have been the most accurate. I know warm and fuzzy hope is nice for those who don't lead in polls, but let's grow up and be serious. Let's get real and seek what has been the standard bearer in recent elections. Most other polling places have lost their ways or become outdated.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #13 on: March 03, 2012, 08:00:25 pm »

I still don't understand why in 2012 people are looking anywhere else besides Rasmussen. They predicted 50/50 correctly in 2004 and only missed 4 states in 2008. Each election since their existence in 2003 they have been the most accurate. I know warm and fuzzy hope is nice for those who don't lead in polls, but let's grow up and be serious. Let's get real and seek what has been the standard bearer in recent elections. Most other polling places have lost their ways or become outdated.

Rasmussen was the worst pollster of the 2010 midterms.

No the tea party senate candidates lost steam and momentum at the end and so the numbers from the entire year as a whole seemed off. The final results and final polling were closer. Midterm Elections are tougher to predict to begin with because of the unpredictable turnout. What do you mean by worst?
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #14 on: March 03, 2012, 08:06:52 pm »


They've been much more accurate in both presidential elections since their existence and seem to be the most modern source. Maybe they were off in 2010 because I remember expecting 50-53 senate seats.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #15 on: March 05, 2012, 03:26:32 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

It just could be a bad sample.

45% won't win an election. Someone has their work cut out or they'll lose to Romeny, Santorum, the Easter Bunny, or a potato.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #16 on: March 05, 2012, 03:36:45 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  43%, +1.

It just could be a bad sample.

45% won't win an election. Someone has their work cut out or they'll lose to Romeny, Santorum, the Easter Bunny, or a potato.


Yet, with 45% approval, the president, in this very same tracking, currently leads all four Republican contenders by margins between 2 and 8. I'm not too worried given that even in recent weeks, he has occasionally trailed, certainly against Romney, possibly against Santorum

It is Mar.5 and the election is months away. Reagan trailed in both elections and so did Bush. I don't know of a single president in modern times that would lose an election in March of the election year because the public is still unfamiliar with their opponents. I know I'm a Republican and excited about the 45% which makes you mad but please try take into account how undecided voters have actually voted in elections rather than how they're polled on Mar.5, 2012 with the election 8 months away.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #17 on: March 05, 2012, 03:52:43 pm »

but please try take into account how undecided voters have actually voted in elections

Yeah, they always vote for the non-incumbent. Just ask President Kerry.


That they did! Bush won the undecided voters who approved of his job as president and Kerry won the ones who did not approve. Fortunately for Bush his approval rating was 54% on election night and didn't even need that to get elected. Clinton was at 54% as well I believe and got just over 48 or 49%. The undecideds went for Perot and Dole. With a 45% approval rating though, Obama is much less likely to win than Bush in 2004 who was in the low 50's.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #18 on: March 05, 2012, 04:22:59 pm »

Some sample approval ratings for George W. Bush in 2004:

3/1-7/04    TIPP/IBD/CSM    44    46
3/9-11/04    Amer. Res. Group    45    48    
3/29-4/3/04    TIPP/IBD/CSM    43    48
4/1-4/04    Pew    43    47    
4/8-9/04    Newsweek    41    55
4/19-5/12/04    Pew    44    44
5/3-4/04    Pew    44    48
5/3-6/04    Amer. Res. Group    45    49
5/11/04    CBS    44    49
5/13-14/04    Newsweek    42    52
5/18-24/04    Quinnipiac University    45    50
5/20-23/04    CBS    41    52

And so on. Bush had a 44-48 approval rating as late as Oct. 15 in the Pew and CBS/NYT polls.

http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_detail.cfm?allRate=True&presidentName=Bush#.T1UnRvVXOuI

Yeah, Tidewater_Wave's theory only works if you choose to view March as a benchmark. In May of 2004, Bush's approval ratings were almost exactly the same as Obama's current approval ratings.

You didn't use Rasmussen. Rasmussen predicted every state right that year. Also, have you ever looked at his approval rating of 54% from the exit polls? Not early exit polls, but actual exit polls. That would be more accurate considering that it deals with actual votes as opposed to polls. Approval ratings don't matter until the night of the election and his was 53-54% based on exit polls. Obama has some jumping up to do.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #19 on: March 05, 2012, 09:42:00 pm »

Approval ratings don't matter until the night of the election and his was 53-54% based on exit polls. Obama has some jumping up to do.
Thank you.

It's true, alot can happen. Right now I'll predict 51-49 one way or the other and it comes down to Ohio lol only because we're so far out.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #20 on: March 06, 2012, 10:22:12 pm »

I stick to Rasmussen and always have since it started when regarding the debate over polling at the national level. Individual states is different for me because it's not as often that the states are polled by each polling place. By following half of the polls on individual states it allows for more debate and analyzation. Did anyone see that Romney and Obama are very even on major issues in Ramsussen today?
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2012, 04:31:00 pm »

When rasmussen Is more favorabilty for Obama than Gallup you know why some are calling
Gallup a joke today.

Actually, I prefer Rasmussen, but you will find a number of people calling it biased toward Republicans.

Gallup weekly is useful for historic comparisons.

Favoring whoever is fine as long as its accurate and Rasmussen has proven to be that.
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Tidewater_Wave
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United States


« Reply #22 on: March 13, 2012, 09:20:55 pm »

http://weaselzippers.us/2011/04/28/poll-americans-disapproval-of-obamas-handling-of-economy-hits-fresh-high-57/

The longer he babbles about birth control the more women will turn against him on other issues such as the economy. As that goes on it will lead to actual votes in the fall. Obama just doesn't have it with the ladies anymore.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #23 on: March 14, 2012, 12:33:53 pm »

47% in Rasmussen and looks like we won't have to worry about Bill Nelson after this year if things continue.
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Tidewater_Wave
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« Reply #24 on: March 14, 2012, 07:37:51 pm »

http://weaselzippers.us/2011/04/28/poll-americans-disapproval-of-obamas-handling-of-economy-hits-fresh-high-57/

The longer he babbles about birth control the more women will turn against him on other issues such as the economy. As that goes on it will lead to actual votes in the fall. Obama just doesn't have it with the ladies anymore.

That poll is from April 2011.

You are really a troll, right?

Please describe for me in depth detail how you get that I'm a troll? Is it because I dared to say that Obama may struggle for votes that have traditionally been female? Is it because I don't stand by as a cheerleader for Obama? Is it because I don't walk in line with the liberal media?
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