The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Lucius Quintus Cincinatus Lamar]

Don't ask me to explain Oregon, New Hampshire, Mississippi, or South Dakota.

But, Mississippi has been sticking out over the past year for these weird approval ratings...what is going on in the Magnolia State? Any locals care to enlighten the ignorant masses?

Must be bad polling sampling.  Mississippi is one of the few states where nationally whites are almost as much a block vote as blacks.  CNN exit polling showed 88% of whites voted for McCain, 98% of blacks voted for Obama.  I agree with pbrower2a that on a national level, the Repubs are the party of the whites and the Dems are the party of the blacks, but that is not accurate at the state level, where I do not believe there has been a Republican majority in either house since reconstruction.  In fact, in most rural areas of the state, white dems dominate local government.

From my observation, attitudes from either race have not changed.  I would expect at least 88% of whites to vote Republican and at least 95% of blacks to vote Obama.  I think this year's election will have a slightly higher ratio of white to black voters due to the lack of novelty of a black candidate (maybe 65-30 white, up from 62-33 in 2008), as a result, I would expect an easy Rep victory, probably along the lines of 58-42 or 59-41 up from 56-43 in 2008.

pbrower2a is also right that if Mississippi whites were as moderate as whites in other border south states, Mississippi would be consistently blue (or red on this site).

[Lucius Quintus Cincinatus Lamar]

It could also be that white Mississippians could recognize that even if Barack Obama is a black man, he does not fit their fears of race-based cronyism and economic radicalism. He could win the state if military/diplomatic issues or natural disasters  are on center-stage (and positive for the President) or if the GOP candidate scares people on Social Security or Medicare.
But that is a gigantic "if". The last northern liberal to win the state was John F. Kennedy, and before that FDR. (I don't consider Adlai Stevenson much more liberal than Dwight Eisenhower, especially on racial issues. Blacks would have voted for Eisenhower in Mississippi... with another huge "if" attached, as they just didn't vote in Mississippi in those days).

It could also be bad sampling. Take a good look at Oregon, which would make sense if Gallup over-sampled eastern Oregon, which is about as conservative as Idaho.  

I think there may be something to a candidate who pledged to eliminate or severely cut back on Medicaid or Social Security (in a Ron Paul-type mode), but that is a long shot.  Rand Paul won in Kentucky by promising big cuts and that state would probably be more spooked by a cutting Social Sec/Medicaid threat than MS would.  Best case for Obama under any circumstance is probably a 5-7 point loss.  I also have to disagree with you on the 1960 election, if memory serves correct, Mississippi's EVs went to unpledged electors, not Kennedy.