The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[old timey villain]

I find a 50% approval of Obama in Florida hard to believe , just as I found recent 44% approvals in places like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin hard to believe. But he is doing better in the South (except in Arkansas and Kentucky). Take good looks at Alabama, North Carolina, and Texas.

Could Florida's result be related to the number of retirees? Healthcare issues tend to resound with older voters, although perhaps many of them have insurance, so maybe not. Perhaps Alabama, North Carolina, Texas, etc have more people likely to benefit from public healthcare, whereas some of the northern states may have a greater proportion of people who already have insurance and don't want to see their tax dollars going towards that.

Just thinking... this sort of economic policy focus could be the realignment we speculate about every now and then. Recent elections have been focused on social issues - hence the South being strongly Republican and the North being strongly Democrat, but obviously between the GFC and Healthcare debates, perhaps people are focusing more on the economic debate. That would make the Democrats more competitive in the South and places like Kansas and other areas with more voters with below-average incomes, while making Republicans more competitive in places like New England. I'm probably talking rubbish, but just thought I'd put it out there for discussion.

The donut hole is one of the first things that seniors see being (partially) phased away through the 2010 legislation.

As it is, seniors pay the first $295 of prescription costs, 25% of that between $295 and $2700, and the entire amount between $2750 and $6254, before the government picks up 95% of the amount over $6155. People with chronic conditions (diabetes is a prime example) can have their money eaten.

It's worth noting that although Florida is near the national average in income, the rest of the South (including Texas)... is below the national average. Poverty itself is a health hazard in its own right. Poor people are likely to get better access to health care.

What is good for poor blacks is also good for poor whites. Obama did badly with poor Southern whites in 2008, most likely on "cultural" issues -- contrast Clinton and Carter.     
haha "cultural issues". A nice way of saying that they didn't want to vote for the black guy.

[old timey villain]

I find a 50% approval of Obama in Florida hard to believe , just as I found recent 44% approvals in places like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin hard to believe. But he is doing better in the South (except in Arkansas and Kentucky). Take good looks at Alabama, North Carolina, and Texas.

Could Florida's result be related to the number of retirees? Healthcare issues tend to resound with older voters, although perhaps many of them have insurance, so maybe not. Perhaps Alabama, North Carolina, Texas, etc have more people likely to benefit from public healthcare, whereas some of the northern states may have a greater proportion of people who already have insurance and don't want to see their tax dollars going towards that.

Just thinking... this sort of economic policy focus could be the realignment we speculate about every now and then. Recent elections have been focused on social issues - hence the South being strongly Republican and the North being strongly Democrat, but obviously between the GFC and Healthcare debates, perhaps people are focusing more on the economic debate. That would make the Democrats more competitive in the South and places like Kansas and other areas with more voters with below-average incomes, while making Republicans more competitive in places like New England. I'm probably talking rubbish, but just thought I'd put it out there for discussion.

The donut hole is one of the first things that seniors see being (partially) phased away through the 2010 legislation.

As it is, seniors pay the first $295 of prescription costs, 25% of that between $295 and $2700, and the entire amount between $2750 and $6254, before the government picks up 95% of the amount over $6155. People with chronic conditions (diabetes is a prime example) can have their money eaten.

It's worth noting that although Florida is near the national average in income, the rest of the South (including Texas)... is below the national average. Poverty itself is a health hazard in its own right. Poor people are likely to get better access to health care.

What is good for poor blacks is also good for poor whites. Obama did badly with poor Southern whites in 2008, most likely on "cultural" issues -- contrast Clinton and Carter. 

   
haha "cultural issues". A nice way of saying that they didn't want to vote for the black guy.

It could also be that Barack Obama is a liberal Yankee instead of a Southern moderate. Kerry did almost as badly in the South in 2004, too, except from Virginia to Florida. 

good point.

[old timey villain]

North Carolina also has a very high unemployment rate and probably doesn't give high marks to any politician representing it.

[old timey villain]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% u

Disapprove 52% u

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

All the polls point to a convergence in the "strongly" numbers.  The reports of a wildly enthused GOP base and a depressed Democratic one may have been grossly exaggerated.  All indications are that the midterm elections this year will be highly competitive.  It is critical that the GOP not continue to lose seats.  Such would sound the death knell for that party.  

 Not necessarily. The GOP continued to lose seats in 1934, 2 years after the dems dominated them. They were always there, but were just in a position of dormancy for some years and then gained ground in the late 1940's and 1950's. But I think you're right- the election will be very close. It will not be a Republican blowout. The Obama coalition is getting fired up too.

[old timey villain]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47% u

Disapprove 52% u

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

All the polls point to a convergence in the "strongly" numbers.  The reports of a wildly enthused GOP base and a depressed Democratic one may have been grossly exaggerated.  All indications are that the midterm elections this year will be highly competitive.  It is critical that the GOP not continue to lose seats.  Such would sound the death knell for that party.  

 Not necessarily. The GOP continued to lose seats in 1934, 2 years after the dems dominated them. They were always there, but were just in a position of dormancy for some years and then gained ground in the late 1940's and 1950's. But I think you're right- the election will be very close. It will not be a Republican blowout. The Obama coalition is getting fired up too.

The Republican Party may very well to continue to exist ... but to be electorally successful, its policies must change significantly.  If it continues to stubbornly cling to the ideals of the past, then it shall go the way of the mastodon.

To appreciate the dire nature the party is in, one must examine its potential 2012 candidates.  Sarah Palin?  A seditious rube, whose qualifications for the Presidency are non-existent.  Mitt Romney?  A Wall Street insider - and he is considered to be their best candidate.  Mike Huckabee?  Too regional, too polarizing, too rural.  Mitch Daniels?  One of Dubya's minions.  George H.W. Bush?  He couldn't afford a credible Second Act.  Tabasco sauce?  Flavorful - but burns the throat.

The last poll, done by CNN, between Obama and Romney yields the following: Obama with 53% and Romney with 45%.  Add 6% to Obama's numbers, and you will get an accurate picture of the 2012 election.  Such is a landslide on the scale of Eisenhower's in 1956.  But I see his political skills more along the lines of Ronald Reagan.  Obama plays to win, and his campaign apparatus, which has been in mothballs, will come out.  When he is out of the White House and can finally campaign on his legislative successes, we will see his approvals - and his party's numbers - rise.

The 2010 Senate races ought to yield many surprises.  South Carolina?  Jim DeMint's approvals are sub-par.  Obama's, on the other hand, are surprisingly good for such a rock-ribbed conservative state.  The exploits of Governor Sanford may have put the Palmetto State into a Republican fatigue.  Georgia?  Only time will tell.  

 As a Georgia resident I can tell you that the races will be very competitive this year. Sonny's party is unpopular now due to their massive budget cuts on things like education, and the leading dem challenger, ex governor Roy Barnes, who paved the way for the first Repub governor since reconstruction, is actually competitive or leading against all Republican candidates. I think Johnny Isakson will get a run for his money, but will come out on top. There are not many strong dem challengers for his senate seat. Georgia is now too big and too diverse to be a one party state.

[old timey villain]

an opinion based on wishful thinking. At this point anyone's election prediction is based on what they want to happen.

[old timey villain]

let's just agree that any 2012 prediction could be way off. This time last year, his approval rating was well above 60%. Even more can happen in two and a half years.

[old timey villain]

yeah, he definitely just loves it. Very perceptive.

[old timey villain]

Rasmussen in my home state of Illinois

61% approve
39% disapprove


And Rasmussen in Delaware

54% approve
46% disapprove

Is it just me or are state approvals quite a bit better than national approvals would suggest?

My particular formula says no.  I'm going to update the state approvals next week when I get the last straggler April polls, but unless something surprising occurs, it will say this:

ALL POLLS:  48% Approve, 48% Disapprove (from 47% Approve, 49% Disapprove)
W/O RASMUSSEN:  48% Approve, 46% Disapprove (from 47% Approve, 47% Disapprove)
RASMUSSEN LAST POLL/COMBINED LAST THREE:  48% Approve, 51% Disapprove (unchanged)

Rasmussen is saying 47/52 last month (among LV).  Gallup says 49/45 last month (among adults, which, given Gallup's normal formula for RV/LV, means you move the numbers 3 to 4 points towards Republicans, which also therefore means that his approval with Gallup aligns with Rasmussen).

48% is not different enough from 47% for me to say that it's anything except for MOE.  The disapprovals differ, but that probably has to do with methodology (and we can argue on that a bit, whatever). 

Fact is, I think it's pretty clear to me that 46% of the country is in the solid disapproval category and 46%-48% of the country is in the solid approval category.  And this is where I agree with Rasmussen (and have said so before) because I think it's been this way since October of last year (maybe since after Labor Day, but not before then).  It can stay this way for a while, and may well do so.  I think we get some action on way or another before 2012, of course, and probably during 2011, at latest.

46% approval looks bad, and you can argue that it is, but 46% of people also voted against him in 2008, and his victory was considered a landslide. What I can see from the approval ratings these days is that most of the people disapproving of him disapproved from the start and just gave him a honeymoon, while most people approving were always rooting for him.
  The current political and social polarization so present in these uncertain times have created sort of a stagnant approval for Obama, with people firmly planted in their approval/disapproval camps where they'll hunker down until things get better. If they do get better then we'll see more people approve of him, but if things get worse then the opposite will happen.
  Fast forward to 2012, let's say things are looking good for the O. There's still only so many votes he can get. Bubba down in south Alabama aint votin for so Osama Muslim, no matter how good things are for him or the country. Consequently, a San Francisco tree hugger will never vote for the current Republican party in 2012, no matter how unpopular Obama may be. So basically, both parties really only have a little wiggle room- let's see what they do with it.

[old timey villain]

Gallup is back to normal

Approve: 50 (+ 3)
Disapprove: 45 (- 2)

[old timey villain]

continuing good news for Obama on Gallup.
Approve: 50
Disapprove: 43 (-2)

could this be the beginning of an upward trend?

[old timey villain]

Obama is basically getting to the place he was during the election, with the Northeast, upper midwest and west coast strongly approving, and certain battleground states giving him just majority approval. If the election were held today, he would probably lose Indiana, NC and maybe Virginia but keep everything else.

[old timey villain]

We might as well throw in the towel, folks.  Obama is rebounding rapidly, the economy is growing almost too fast, and in contrast to Bush and Katrina, Obama reacted quickly to the oil spill in only six days.  Meanwhile, the Republican Party is divided over illegal immigration, and Hispanics are rapidly turning away from the GOP.  I hate to say it, folks, but if we keep this up then in 2012 we'll lose:

TEXAS

As much as I want to jump for you at this prospect, I would say that it's way too early to make this assessment. A few months ago, after Scott Brown was elected Obama was in dire straits and both the 2010 and 2012 elections looked to be bad for dems. Honestly, I didn't think any of us dems expected healthcare to be such an ugly, bitter fight. My point is, things could change rapidly- and they probably will in some way or another. Here is what is certain right now-
1) Republicans have pissed off hispanics through the Sotomayor conformation and the Arizona immigration law. I don't see them being a competitive group in 2012 unless the GOP does a hell of a lot to woo them.
2) Blacks love Obama, young people love Obama, highly educated people love Obama, jews love obama, most asians love Obama, he has these groups in the bag.
3)The economy is improving and when real improvement is seen Obama's approvals go up.
4)Terrorism could be his weakness, a successive number of terror scares can and will damage his credibility.
5) Immigration reform will be polarizing

that's all I got...

[old timey villain]

How does Governor generic republican win Florida before North Carolina??

[old timey villain]

Obama is up to 52% approval on Gallup. The highest of the year I believe.

[old timey villain]

down 6 points in less than a week. Gallup toys with my emotions.

[old timey villain]

Georgia is not as bad as it could be. If I recall he had a 41% approval rating a few months ago and it's held steady.The changing demographics of Georgia bode well for the Democrats and Obama, but he would certainly lose the state today. 2012 is a different story though...

[old timey villain]

P.S. (liberal soapbox) I don't understand why the voters in Arkansas, one of the poorest states in the nation, are so against a healthcare plan that will finally give many of them healthcare  coverage and favor cutting spending, which would likely end manysocial programs that benefit Arkansans. It makes me think that the people there don't like Barack Obama, for various reasons, and will oppose anything that they feel represents him.

[old timey villain]

wow, West Virginia is B-A-D

[old timey villain]

I wouldn't try to pass a poll as current on here 11 days after it was released, let alone 11 months. Either you're a troll or you just don't get how polling works.

[old timey villain]

More than just a Bin Laden bounce if you ask me. His coalition is gelling once again, united against Romney. He just doesn't have much to offer lean Obama voters as of late.

[old timey villain]

Hey Hagrid, now you know how Democrats felt in 2004. A president that the other side hated somehow managed to win a second term in uncertain times. Karma's a bitch aint it?