Lahbas
Jr. Member
Posts: 568
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« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2010, 06:31:01 PM » |
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There is going to be a small bump that is for certain. The problem however is that even though people might know that the President is trying to do his best, he is not doing it well. Therefore, this bump will probably not last long if the economic trend holds. In my opinion, his approval is likely going to enter the thirties and bottom out there by the end of the year. His current economic policies MAY produce another recession, which he will be blamed for, specifically his proposed taxes on the banks. Another stimulus will likely be introduced, which also won't be popular, and possibly will be rejected by the Senate by a narrow margin, due to the 2010 elections. At the same time I would not put it past them to pass a third stimulus, though it could potentially be filibustered.
The year has, in a way, begun well for Obama, but it is likely to get much worse before it gets any better. After 2010, the Republican House, or the Divided Congress, will make Obama's work even more difficult, and instead of blaming Congress, they will continue to blame the President. At that point, his major problem will be appealing to the Left of the Democratic Party, since he will be forced to further moderate his views. While this will help him with independent voters, his already shaky support among the Left will degrade, likely prompting a challenge in the primaries (assuming his approval ratings are still low in the middle of 2011). At this point, there is also the question of whether or not he would even WANT another term, in which case the field is wide open (Biden would be considered too close to Obama, and generally too old to run for the Presidency). Obama will find it really difficult to win reelection with a Republican House, since little can be accomplished without both the approval of the House and the President.
Even in the case of a successful economy, which I doubt, there is the problem of Afghanistan. If the situation degrades regardless of the surge, and the President is not able to follow his timeline.........enough is said. Like how President Bush went down with the War in Iraq, it is likely that President Obama will go down with the War in Afghanistan in this event. I hope that will not be the case, but since the Taliban have a fairly safe base in Warzistan, we will have to see.
In any situation, Obama has a REALLY tough road ahead of him, and his Charisma can only do so much before it, to the voter, appears nothing more than rhetoric.
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