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The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (Read 1064285 times)
Oakvale
oakvale
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Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
on:
August 28, 2009, 01:54:49 PM »
I'm going to shout "Ronald Regan" every time someone mentions his approval rating in 200-and-ing-9 as an indicator of his electoral chances in 2012. His approval will probably go under 50% - maybe even under 40%, like Reagan - but he'll bounce back.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #1 on:
November 08, 2009, 01:49:41 PM »
I wonder what kind of bounce he'll get if/when HC passes.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #2 on:
November 20, 2009, 07:11:56 PM »
You guys are dumb. Guess whose approval ratings
dropped faster
than Obama's?
Ronald Reagan
, he of the 49-state re-election victory.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3 on:
February 02, 2010, 02:24:57 PM »
Small national bump in Rasmussen & Gallup. Probably because of the SOTU.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #4 on:
February 04, 2010, 01:11:03 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on February 04, 2010, 10:31:31 AM
Quote from: pbrower2a on February 04, 2010, 09:50:23 AM
Quote from: NiK on February 03, 2010, 11:10:37 PM
It's interesting to note that the states would, if the polling is correct, vote for "someone else." Now, why is it that the national trend shows him with approval generally in the high 40s/low 50s, then?
In general, an incumbent President has about a 50-50 chance of winning re-election if his approval rating is at 44%. (Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com) Above 44% the likelihood of victory skyrockets to near 100% at 47% approval. Unless something funny is going on (like a favorite son as an opponent in the state) such is likely a good approximation for winning the state. So in a two-way race with a couple of minor parties running candidates who sop up the disaffected vote and allow one of the two main candidates to win with about 49% of the vote, this map of the latest approval ratings for likely voters (note: Connecticut updated)
If you are looking at this,
at this point in time
, the statement is false. Carter had 55%, GHWB, about a month after the capture of Noriega, had an 80%.
No
elected
president was lower than a 47% approval numbers on Gallup,
at this point in time
. Reagan had 49% and was re-elected. Clinton was as 54% (and was on an upswing) but only had 49% of the vote in the next presidential election.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm
Either Silver has it wrong, grandly, or you are misquoting him.
I'm assuming he's referring to approval on Election Day...
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
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E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #5 on:
March 04, 2010, 06:12:55 PM »
Quote from: change08 on March 04, 2010, 06:07:32 PM
Quote from: JBrase on March 04, 2010, 05:53:38 PM
Texas (Rassmussen)
29% approve
62% disapprove
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/texas/election_2010_texas_governor
...Lowest approval in the nation? Doubt it...
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #6 on:
March 10, 2010, 02:47:57 PM »
Quote from: change08 on March 10, 2010, 02:14:48 PM
Quote from: MagneticFree on March 10, 2010, 02:08:56 PM
If MA votes for a Rep in 2012, Obama is done!
LOL, if Obama loses MA i'll eat my hat.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
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E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #7 on:
March 11, 2010, 01:40:02 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on March 11, 2010, 01:27:14 PM
Obama hits a new low at Gallup today:
46% Approve
45% Disapprove
Gallup's having ridiculous swings these days.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
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E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #8 on:
March 16, 2010, 10:11:15 AM »
Quote from: Badger on March 16, 2010, 07:51:23 AM
Quote from: pbrower2a on March 16, 2010, 07:35:02 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on March 16, 2010, 01:17:36 AM
Strategic Vision is back !
Georgia:
37% Approve
50% Disapprove
The results are based on telephone interviews with 800 likely voters in Georgia, aged 18+, and conducted March 5-8, 2010 by telephone. The margin of sampling error is ±3.5 percentage points.
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/georgia_poll_031510.htm
The huge gap between approval and disapproval indicates the uselessness of that poll. I'd have to show it with the letter "S" (spurious, suspicious, screwy, shady)... except that such would crowd out another and more reliable poll.
I will not use this one.
I'd reconsider, PBrower. 13% undecided is hardly out of line. It just indicates they don't pistol whip undecideds to leaning the way Scotty apparantly does with his "0% undecided" results. Nor are these numbers overall particularly out of line for GA.
And thank you all for sparing the ubiquitous "of course he'll exclude it cause it's bad for Obama and he's a hack" response.
Mainly because Strategic Vision tends to, uh, make up poll results. Literally.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #9 on:
March 21, 2010, 01:49:12 PM »
HCR boost, presumably?
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #10 on:
April 19, 2010, 01:59:06 PM »
Quote from: ConservativeIllini on April 19, 2010, 01:24:38 PM
Per Quinnipiac, Obama back at positive approval in Florida
50% approve
45% disapprove
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1297.xml?ReleaseID=1446
Pretty surprised by that tbh.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
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E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #11 on:
April 27, 2010, 04:03:22 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on April 27, 2010, 01:34:59 PM
The "approval rating plus six" theory is one of the funniest things I've ever seen on the forum, up there with some of Naso's stuff.
I wouldn't discount it, actually.
Carter's approval rating, for example, was 37% prior to 1980's election. He got 41% of the vote, an increase of 4%, and that probably would have been higher had Anderson not split the anti-Reagan vote...
Bush's was 34% before the 1992 election and he ended up with 3% of the vote. Clinton's was 54% before the 1996 one, but I'd imagine Perot skewed things for both somewhat.
Bush II's was 48% before 2004's election, and he ended up with almost 51%, which is an increase of 3%.
Oh, and Ford's last recorded before November 1976 was 45% and he ended up with ~48%, although the 48% figure is from July so make your own judgement on how relevant that is. Again, that a 3% increase.
So, 6% might be a tad much, but an increase of 3-4% seems reasonable. A cursory look through Gallup seemed to show that, interestingly enough, the only President whose vote matched their approval exactly was Reagan in 1984 with 58%.
*shrug*
I'm not an expert, but it's not far-fetched
in principle
that vote shares can exceed approval ratings.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
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E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #12 on:
May 11, 2010, 02:24:12 PM »
Anyone else seeing a small but noticeable uptick in Obama's approval recently?
Here's the RCP average:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
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E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #13 on:
May 14, 2010, 02:02:07 PM »
Quote from: cope1989 on May 14, 2010, 01:34:58 PM
Obama is up to 52% approval on Gallup. The highest of the year I believe.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
The average of polls seems to show a positive trend, too, FWIW.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
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E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #14 on:
June 03, 2010, 08:52:01 AM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on June 02, 2010, 03:34:55 PM
So, Obama's been stuck at about 50-50 for the last six months (at minimum). What a surprise - I've been saying that myself.
FYI - there's a real reason why this is occurring.
God forbid you actually
tell
us mere mortals said "real reason".
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
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E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #15 on:
August 11, 2010, 11:45:12 AM »
Quote from: change08 on August 11, 2010, 11:35:11 AM
PPP national:
47/48
(+2)/(-4)
Changes since 9-12/7
Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care plan, or do you not have an opinion?
46% Support, 48% Oppose
Do you think George W. Bush or Barack Obama is more responsible for the current state of the economy?
49% Bush, 40% Obama
Would you rather have Barack Obama or George W. Bush as President right now?
50% Obama, 43% Bush
Out of the last 5 Presidents: Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush, who do you think Barack Obama is most similar to?
41% Clinton, 35% Carter, 6% Reagan, 2% H.W. Bush, 2% W. Bush
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_811.pdf
Jesus, those Bush figures are just depressingly high.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #16 on:
August 13, 2010, 06:55:40 PM »
Quote from: Darth Yelnoc on August 13, 2010, 06:25:05 PM
Brower, if you think Georgia will go Democratic in 2012 you're delusional.
Obama came pretty close to winning Georgia in 2008, y'know.
I'm just sayin'
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
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E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #17 on:
October 03, 2010, 09:32:14 AM »
I'd like to pop into this thread to commend J.J. on being one of the few people reporting the numbers without being a hack.
*leaves*
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #18 on:
October 22, 2010, 07:03:41 PM »
I don't even get the whole "Democrat" thing. I mean, I know it's a sure sign that the person speaking is a hack, but other than that... is it some kind of play on the word "rat"?
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #19 on:
October 28, 2010, 07:59:52 AM »
Quote from: Hillary2012 on October 26, 2010, 04:56:58 PM
Obama at 37%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FINALLY!!!!!
harrisinteractive
lol troll
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #20 on:
November 05, 2010, 11:32:31 AM »
Quote from: Clay on November 05, 2010, 08:32:15 AM
Quote from: Joementum on November 03, 2010, 03:16:10 PM
Midterm results are in!!
Rasmussen in month before election consistently showed Republicans 3-4 points stronger than they ended up.
...as per 538.
Nearly every single pollster had the Republicans up by 3-4 points. It wasn't just Rasmussen. What's your point?
He's referring to the fact that Rasmussen polls
overestimated
the Republicans by 3-4 points. Consistently.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #21 on:
November 17, 2010, 07:05:15 PM »
Quote from: Hillary2012 on November 17, 2010, 06:53:06 PM
Zogby Interactive
: Obama Holds at 42%; Percentage Who Strongly Disapprove at 48%
Approval from Democrats Dips Below 80%
lol
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #22 on:
December 14, 2010, 04:32:14 PM »
Zogby has Obama at 39%. I was all WTF, then I realised it was
Zogby
.
I'm posting this before Hillaryin2012 discovers the "poll" and fills the thread with yet more hackery.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #23 on:
January 10, 2011, 03:40:14 PM »
Yeah, there definitely seems to be a positive trend in Obama's numbers - it'd be much more obvious on the RCP average if not for the Fox poll from December skewing things...
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Oakvale
oakvale
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Posts: 11,675
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -4.00
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #24 on:
January 12, 2011, 07:28:23 AM »
Quote from: px75 on January 12, 2011, 05:53:53 AM
I find it odd that PPP finds Obama's approval lower than Rasmussen (cue Poundingmydick ranting about "Marshall's pimp").
Also, they must be the first pollster to find Bhoener's approvals in positive territory and a majority of Americans supporting the repeal of HCR. Might be a heavily Republican sample but the guys have earned their stripes and deserve our benefit of the doubt.
PPP is now John Boehner's pimp, obviously.
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