The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[WillK]

I think it might be potentially a good thing for obama's presidency that his poll numbers have fallen back down to earth...

It should also be remembered that most President's approval ratings drop during the early part of their presidency.    Reagan's approval ratings dropped to something like 40%  as the economy tanked in his first two years.

[WillK]

Lets just pretend for a second that your theory makes sense...
45+6=51
That would put a Republican at around 48%. ....

Only if you assume that the Dem% + the Rep% = 100%, which is rarely true. 

[WillK]

Gallup:

Approve - 43% (NC)
Disapprove - 49% (+1)

I have been phone polled several times in the last week -- a new experience for me.  It has shown to me a flaw in the Approve/Disapprove stat: the question completely lacks any connection to why. 

Each time I was polled I answered Disapprove because I am disappointed in Obama.  I am disappointed in him for being too moderate on healthcare, stimulus, war, financial reform.  But my disapproval does not translate into opportunity for the Republicans.  Match Obama against any Republican, and I would pick Obama every time. 

[WillK]

Just for comparison:

George W. Bush's favorable rating in the final CBS/NY Times poll taken right before the 2004 election was 48/42

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/12/politics/main3362530.shtml

So Obama's polling behind Bush in favorability right now, two years before his prospective re-election.  Two years after Bush posted a 48/42 favorable/unfavorable, he was down to 34/52.

The problem for Obama is that Obama is not polling well enough personally after only two years in office.  He hasn't even experienced the inevitable decline since most voters say they don't blame him primarily for the economic decline.  They have decided to dislike him personally even without blaming him.

Compare Obama's polling with Reagan's. 

[WillK]

The "compare Obama's ratings to Reagan's" logic is ridiculous.  Why?  Because if Obama's ratings were high right now, I could just say "compare Obama's ratings to George H.W. Bush's ratings."  The logic would be that since Obama's ratings are just as high Bush I's ratings, he'll lose re-election.   You'd find that logic laughable and rightly so.

What you have just pointed out is the stupidity of your own initial post. 

[WillK]

Do any of these polls try to parse the 'Disapprove' into those who are likely to vote Republican from those (like me) who are not satisfied with what he has done but would vote form him over any likely Republican choice?

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, u.