The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Likely Voter]

If it was just Gallup or just Rasmussen I would dismiss this as a blip, but with both dipping sharply at the same time makes it appear that something is going on. The only major event has been Egypt, but it is hard to see how anything he has done regarding Egypt. It would be interesting to see inside the numbers to see if the dip is more with one group or another.  It could be that some republicans and right leaning indies that started moving towards him after lame duck, Tuscon speech and SOTU have been freaked out by fears of Egypt turning into another Iran, which seems to be all they talk about on FOX these days.

[Likely Voter]

One thing I noticed about Obama's dip in the polls (at least in Gallup), ALL of the decline in support from Obama came from independents, Democrats and Republicans have remained constant in their approval of Obama in the past few days.

Probably Egypt.  The President really can do nothing.  Almost everything is up to a capricious dictator  who can't decide whether he wants to hold onto power at risk of his life -- or flee. 

That is interesting. It almost implies that the partisans on both sides get that Obama was doing just about anything that could be done, but those people in the middle think that a President has a magical power to make everything better. It explains why some independents swings around so much based on right track/wrong track, based on assumption that the Pres could fix economy overnight if he just really tried harder

[Likely Voter]

It's just Rasmussen. Gallup's Dissaproval actually went down one point today. My trust in Rasmussen continues to deteriorate.

Well they have their own secret sauce likely voter model, which in the very GOP friendly 2010 election actually showed the GOP with even more gains, predicting even more GOP seats and senators. It almost looks like they are still using the same model even though 2012 should have a younger and less white electorate. It would be nice if Ras included their RV numbers (or do they somewhere?)

[Likely Voter]

Obama's Gallup drop is striking. Is it bad data or is something going on. Rasmussen seems to be stable

[Likely Voter]

when was the last time Obama's Gallup was over 50?  Not since OBL dead in May 2011?

[Likely Voter]

I looked it up and Obama hasn't been at 52 since OBL dead, however there were two days in 2011 where he hit 51. He hasnt been over 50 for a sustained period since May 2011 so if this sticks, it will be significant

[Likely Voter]

sorry I mean two days in 2012 where he hit 51 for one day: May 3rd and June 24th.

Essentially starting in the summer of 2010 he has been in the 40s except for two periods where he had sustained 50+ rating: the lame duck session where they actually got some stuff done in late 2010 and Killing OBL in May 2011. Since then he has been stuck in the 40s for the most part.

[Likely Voter]

This election continues to track close to the 2004 election. Obama's approval rating is now right around where Bush's was today 8 years ago and on election day. The big difference is that Kerry's personal approval ratingss were positive and Romney's are negative

[Likely Voter]

This election continues to track close to the 2004 election. Obama's approval rating is now right around where Bush's was today 8 years ago and on election day. The big difference is that Kerry's personal approval ratingss were positive and Romney's are negative

He's still a couple % lower than Bush was, but Bush starts dropping off around this time, so Obama could catch Bush 2004 before the election.  The race is also polling a bit tighter than Bush/Kerry was post-convention (Obama +4 vs. Bush +6), but the variance was a lot larger in 2004, with Kerry being up +2-3 pre-convention bump for Bush vs. Obama being +1-3 on Romney all summer long this year...

Well on Sept 23 Bush was at 51 on the RCP avg, OBama is 50, and by election day  Bush was 49.5   but still won with 50.7 of the PV. No past election is exactly the same but for all the talk about Carter v Reagan, this election continues to look more like Bush v Kerry (with Obama as Bush).  That election also shows a glimmer of hope for Romney fans as Kerry was able to get a 4pt bounce out of the first debate. So even if polling remains stable Romney could close the race to a tie.

[Likely Voter]

I'm going off the RCP average.

But if you want to talk Gallup, since that is the new talking point for the right, remind us what the Gallup approval rating was for the last two presidents who were voted out of office (Cater and George HW Bush) were at this point?

[Likely Voter]

54? When was the last time he was that high? 2009? It wont last.