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  Talk Elections
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1034783 times)
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.77, S: -2.09


« on: April 18, 2009, 04:23:44 am »

DKos/Research 2000
Obama Favourable/Unfavourable: 69%/27%

April 13-16, 2009
MOE 2%

http://dailykos.com/weeklypoll/2009/4/16

Not buying that one.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.77, S: -2.09


« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2009, 12:33:01 am »

Attempted translation into electoral results, 2012 with the whopper of an assumption that nothing really changes before then: 




Projection:
Navy -- Generic Republican strong (10% or more)
Blue  -- Generic Republican weak   (5 - 9.9%)
Pale blue -- Generic Republican, barely (under 5%)
White -- Undeterminable or toss-up
Pink -- Obama, barely (under 5%)
Red -- weak Obama (5-9.9%)
Deep red -- strong Obama (10% or more)

Obama                    418
Toss-up                     13
Generic Republican  107

It's obvious that there will be more polls.  At this stage I consider Montana and North Dakota "unpolled", Nebraska a tossup at large as it is unpolled except for one Congressional district, and Arkansas because it has too many contradictions.  No state in which Obama gets at least a 45% approval rating can be considered anything more than "barely Generic Republican".  In the absence of polls I go with Mississippi, Maryland, D.C., Vermont, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii  as they did in 2008. I "mute" Nevada for lack of polls and because the double-digit win could be a one-time event.  Although West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Louisiana give support in the positive range to Obama, he lost those states by huge margins so they can't be more than "weak Obama".   Although I recognize a strong positive (50%+) for Obama in Utah, I just can't imagine him winning the state.  

Much of this is arbitrary, and one poll can change things dramatically for one state. Much will change politically by 2012; most obviously, Obama absolutely won't be running against a "generic Republican" in 2012.
 






That's a very hopeful map for Obama.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.77, S: -2.09


« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2009, 12:50:00 am »


I agree. There's about a zero chance that Obama wins states like LA (lol), TN, KY, WV or the western district of NE. AR is also unwinnable. SD and ND are becoming more favorable, but still lean Republican. But a Huckabee has a greater chance to lose them than, let's say a Romney has.

Utah at less than 5% margin for Republican - I thought that was just crazy.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.77, S: -2.09


« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2010, 05:39:09 pm »

In Michigan Obama Approval Rating
55% Disapprove
44% Approve

Do you have a source?

Also, welcome to the forum Smiley

With numbers like that, it's probably a Rasmussen, Zogby or something.  I just have a hard time believing -11 in Michigan...

EPIC-MRI - a local Michigan poling company out of Lansing - I find them to be pretty accurate for election polling.  Not sure about approval rating polls though.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.77, S: -2.09


« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2010, 05:43:41 pm »

In Michigan Obama Approval Rating
55% Disapprove
44% Approve

Do you have a source?

Also, welcome to the forum Smiley

With numbers like that, it's probably a Rasmussen, Zogby or something.  I just have a hard time believing -11 in Michigan...

EPIC-MRI - a local Michigan poling company out of Lansing - I find them to be pretty accurate for election polling.  Not sure about approval rating polls though.

Ah, alright, thanks for the reference.  I've personally never heard of that polling agency.

They only do Michigan polls, but they're the main Michigan polling company (at least non-partisan company, that is).
Logged
Queen Mum Inks.LWC
Inks.LWC
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 35,096
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.77, S: -2.09


« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2010, 05:48:28 pm »

In Michigan Obama Approval Rating
55% Disapprove
44% Approve

Do you have a source?

Also, welcome to the forum Smiley

With numbers like that, it's probably a Rasmussen, Zogby or something.  I just have a hard time believing -11 in Michigan...

EPIC-MRI - a local Michigan poling company out of Lansing - I find them to be pretty accurate for election polling.  Not sure about approval rating polls though.

Ah, alright, thanks for the reference.  I've personally never heard of that polling agency.

They only do Michigan polls, but they're the main Michigan polling company (at least non-partisan company, that is).

I remember them from both 2006 and the 2008 Republican primaries.



2006 primary for what?
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