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  Talk Elections
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1043895 times)
Dgov
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« Reply #6575 on: October 23, 2010, 01:21:07 am »


And among likely voters it's 49-47. Ouch.

Edit: Although it's hard to see how you can only have 55% approval if 81% of liberals, 64% of moderates and 30% of conservatives approve of the job you are doing.

That breakdown is about 20/40/40 Liberal Moderate Conservative (which gives 54% Approval), which is about the Country's overall numbers.  Though this is California, so that does seem very odd.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6576 on: October 23, 2010, 08:47:25 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, -1.


The Strongly Approve number is now the lowest since 9/20/10.
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Penelope
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« Reply #6577 on: October 23, 2010, 02:27:59 pm »
« Edited: October 23, 2010, 09:06:06 pm by Odysseus »

Taking up pbrower's old job, hope people don't hate me too much.

-Missouri added.
-California added.
-Maryland added.



Key:


Below 40%: 60% Red
40-44% Approval: 40% Red  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
50%: 10% Yellow (really white)
50-55%: 30% Green
56-59%: 60% Green

60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Out-dated poll = 30% Orange

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December


IF OBAMA WAS ON THE BALLOT:

(this year, Obama versus Republican Front-runner)

 

               
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 102 
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin 99
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 15
white                        too close to call  109
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  5
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  50
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   164  

------
Total Obama 215
Total Romney 214

Toss Up 109
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Fritz
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« Reply #6578 on: October 23, 2010, 08:20:14 pm »

We want electoral vote totals with those maps!
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Penelope
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« Reply #6579 on: October 23, 2010, 09:06:15 pm »

We want electoral vote totals with those maps!

Done.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6580 on: October 24, 2010, 05:23:01 am »

Gallup:43%
Rasmussen:45%
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6581 on: October 24, 2010, 05:30:19 am »

Odysseus how can you think OH and FL would be to close to cann today-NEVER!!!

House 2010: GOP:256 +77 DEM:179 -77
Senate 2010:GOP:52 +11 DEM:46 -11 Indys: 2 nc
Governor 2010: GOP:31 +7 DEM:9 -07 Indy: 0 +0
President 2012: GOP:393    Obama:131  Toss-up: 14

There`s a little change in the weekly electoral map forecast. WA moved from weak R to weak D!
If the presidential election would be held today a unknown GOP candidate would get 393EV while President Obama would get 131EV!The 14EV of NJ are a toss-up!

The Senate is 52/46/2  R/D/I!  Senate pick-ups for the GOP: AR CA CO IL IN ND NV PA  WA WI WV!

Governor picks for the GOP: IL IA KS  ME MI NM OH OK PA TN WI WY
but the Dems would pick: CA CT  HI MN RI
(and RI would go Independent)

And here is my weekly house forecast.
The Democrats will get LA_02 and DE_AL, but then these seats flip to the GOP for a gain of  77 seats:
AL: 2       AR: 1, 2     AZ: 1, 5, 8
CA: 11, 47    CO: 3, 4,7   CT:5
FL: 2, 8, 22, 24    GA: 2,8
IA: 2,3       IL: 11, 14, 17    IN: 8, 9
KS: 3       KY:
LA: 3      MO:4
MD: 1       MI: 1, 7, 8,9    MS: 1,4
NC: 8       ND: 1       NH: 1,
NM: 2       NV: 3       NJ: 3
NY: 1,4, 13, 23,24,29
OH: 1, 6, 15, 16, 17,18              OR:5
PA: 3,6,7,11, 12
SC: 5       SD: 1
TN: 4, 6, 8    TX: 17, 23,27
VA: 2, 5
WA:2, 3,6    WI: 3, 7, 8    WV: 1,3

President:

Safe Obama:       
DC (87.5/12.5)      
HI (59.0/36.6)       
MA (54.3/45.2)      
MD (53.8/43.7)      
RI (57/42.4)   
VT (60.2/39.7)
         
Lean Obama:         
NY (52.7/45.4)      
         
Weak Obama                  
CA: (50.7/45.2)
WA (47.7/47.1)


 

Safe GOP :      
AL (60.3/39.3)
AK (59.3/36.Cool
AZ (60.9/39.0)
AR (64.6/33.3)       
CO (54.0/40.Cool
FL (55.0/41.9)   
GA (57.3/42.7)
ID (69.5/30.5)
IN (60.6/39.3)
KS (65.9/32.4)
KY (62.4/37.6)
LA (62.2/37.7)
MS (63/37)
MO (53.6/35.7)
MT (59.5/40)
NE (65.3/32.5)
NC (56.2/40.5)
ND (61.9/38.1)
NV (55.3/40.5)
OH (54.9/39.7)
OK (66.0/33.0)
PA (52.6/39.4)
SC (60.8/39.2)
SD (60/39.5)
TN (62.4/37.4)
TX (59.2/38.4)
UT (67.2/32.3)
WV (64.3/29.4)
WY (68/31.4)
         



Lean GOP:
IA: (53.7/45)
MI (53.1/45.3)
NH (52.5/45.0)
WI: (51.1/43.Cool

Weak GOP :
CT:(47.8/45.4)
DE: (47.6/46.3)
IL: (49.2/48.4)
ME:(51.6/4.3)
MN:(50.4/49.1)
NM: (50.6/47.4)
OR: (48.1/47.6)
VA: (51/49)


House 2010: GOP:256 +77 DEM:179 -77
Senate 2010:GOP:52 +11 DEM:46 -11 Indys: 2 nc
Governor 2010: GOP:31 +7 DEM:9 -07 Indy: 0 +0
President 2012: GOP:393    Obama:131  Toss-up: 14

There`s a little change in the weekly electoral map forecast. WA moved from weak R to weak D!
If the presidential election would be held today a unknown GOP candidate would get 393EV while President Obama would get 131EV!The 14EV of NJ are a toss-up!

The Senate is 52/46/2  R/D/I!  Senate pick-ups for the GOP: AR CA CO IL IN ND NV PA  WA WI WV!

Governor picks for the GOP: IL IA KS  ME MI NM OH OK PA TN WI WY
but the Dems would pick: CA CT  HI MN RI
(and RI would go Independent)

And here is my weekly house forecast.
The Democrats will get LA_02 and DE_AL, but then these seats flip to the GOP for a gain of  77 seats:
AL: 2       AR: 1, 2     AZ: 1, 5, 8
CA: 11, 47    CO: 3, 4,7   CT:5
FL: 2, 8, 22, 24    GA: 2,8
IA: 2,3       IL: 11, 14, 17    IN: 8, 9
KS: 3       KY:
LA: 3      MO:4
MD: 1       MI: 1, 7, 8,9    MS: 1,4
NC: 8       ND: 1       NH: 1,
NM: 2       NV: 3       NJ: 3
NY: 1,4, 13, 23,24,29
OH: 1, 6, 15, 16, 17,18              OR:5
PA: 3,6,7,11, 12
SC: 5       SD: 1
TN: 4, 6, 8    TX: 17, 23,27
VA: 2, 5
WA:2, 3,6    WI: 3, 7, 8    WV: 1,3

President:

Safe Obama:       
DC (87.5/12.5)      
HI (59.0/36.6)       
MA (54.3/45.2)      
MD (53.8/43.7)      
RI (57/42.4)   
VT (60.2/39.7)
         
Lean Obama:         
NY (52.7/45.4)      
         
Weak Obama                  
CA: (50.7/45.2)
WA (47.7/47.1)


 

Safe GOP :      
AL (60.3/39.3)
AK (59.3/36.Cool
AZ (60.9/39.0)
AR (64.6/33.3)       
CO (54.0/40.Cool
FL (55.0/41.9)   
GA (57.3/42.7)
ID (69.5/30.5)
IN (60.6/39.3)
KS (65.9/32.4)
KY (62.4/37.6)
LA (62.2/37.7)
MS (63/37)
MO (53.6/35.7)
MT (59.5/40)
NE (65.3/32.5)
NC (56.2/40.5)
ND (61.9/38.1)
NV (55.3/40.5)
OH (54.9/39.7)
OK (66.0/33.0)
PA (52.6/39.4)
SC (60.8/39.2)
SD (60/39.5)
TN (62.4/37.4)
TX (59.2/38.4)
UT (67.2/32.3)
WV (64.3/29.4)
WY (68/31.4)
         



Lean GOP:
IA: (53.7/45)
MI (53.1/45.3)
NH (52.5/45.0)
WI: (51.1/43.Cool

Weak GOP :
CT:(47.8/45.4)
DE: (47.6/46.3)
IL: (49.2/48.4)
ME:(51.6/4.3)
MN:(50.4/49.1)
NM: (50.6/47.4)
OR: (48.1/47.6)
VA: (51/49)
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #6582 on: October 24, 2010, 06:17:18 am »

Interesting and highly optimistic... the Dems are not losing 11 senate seats.

Approval ratings against a generic mean nothing, and shouldn't be extrapolated out to draw such conclusions.

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Yelnoc
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« Reply #6583 on: October 24, 2010, 07:42:33 am »

Agreed.  "Anybody but Obama" sounds a lot more appealing then "Romney" "Palin" "Gingrich" or any other names that pollsters are throwing out there.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6584 on: October 24, 2010, 09:22:45 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +2.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -2.


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Penelope
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« Reply #6585 on: October 24, 2010, 12:06:35 pm »

Hillary2012,

 There is no such thing as a "Generic Republican". Secondly, the only way Obama could lose Illinois is if it was discovered he was on a strict all-kitten diet.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6586 on: October 24, 2010, 12:25:34 pm »

Gallup: 41-50

Tied for his record low on approval, but also a points less unfavorable.  It sums up the last year nicely to know that his 52-week high and 52-week low are a year and 14 points apart.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6587 on: October 24, 2010, 03:50:27 pm »

Keep in mind too that Obama's approval rating is among adults.  His 50% unfavorable rating is among adults as well.

So the complaints about Gallup's likely voter model, some of which I consider valid and credible, wouldn't apply to what gallup is finding for Obama's personal numbers among adults.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6588 on: October 24, 2010, 04:29:45 pm »

Olysses-TODAY Obama would lostso badly against a unknown candidate
but 2years are a long time and naturally it will depends who is running for the GOP
I have now doubt that MN WA OR IL DE ME NM will not go red in the end of 2012
but the dems must campaign there and it will not be a blowout like in 2008

but CO FL NV NC VA IN MO are gone

OH PA WI NH IA are defenetily in play
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change08
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« Reply #6589 on: October 24, 2010, 04:41:31 pm »

Olysses-TODAY Obama would lostso badly against a unknown candidate
but 2years are a long time and naturally it will depends who is running for the GOP
I have now doubt that MN WA OR IL DE ME NM will not go red in the end of 2012
but the dems must campaign there and it will not be a blowout like in 2008

but CO FL NV NC VA IN MO are gone

OH PA WI NH IA are defenetily in play

If FL elects Sink, CO re-elects Bennet and NV re-elects Reid in a year like this, then none of them are "gone".
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6590 on: October 25, 2010, 01:05:14 am »

http://www.keloland.com/news/campaign/poll2010/

south dakota: 27/53 favorable/unfavorable

That comes out to 36% favorables nationally.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #6591 on: October 25, 2010, 01:52:26 am »

http://www.keloland.com/news/campaign/poll2010/

south dakota: 27/53 favorable/unfavorable

That comes out to 36% favorables nationally.
20% neutral on Obama? What?
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6592 on: October 25, 2010, 01:56:51 am »

Battleground poll:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_101022_bg42questionnaire.html

Obama favorable/unfavorable: 46/51
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Dgov
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« Reply #6593 on: October 25, 2010, 04:26:59 am »


Republican Party Favorables/Unfavorables: 50/41
Democratic Party Favorables/Unfavorables: 42/50
HC law: 44/53

And on a moderate-less Conservative/Liberal ranking, 62/35 Conservative over Liberal

32/34 Republican/Democrat identification, 42/41 with Leaners.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6594 on: October 25, 2010, 06:09:18 am »

HC law is more popular than the Democratic Party? I'm not sure that I buy that one but there would be some great irony in that if accurate.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6595 on: October 25, 2010, 09:42:35 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6596 on: October 25, 2010, 12:46:54 pm »

Gallup: slight surge for Obama
43/48
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6597 on: October 25, 2010, 02:24:09 pm »

FYI: obama's favorables in battleground fell by 14 points in one month.

54/45 to 46/51 favorable/unfavorable
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Dgov
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« Reply #6598 on: October 25, 2010, 03:10:16 pm »

FYI: obama's favorables in battleground fell by 14 points in one month.

54/45 to 46/51 favorable/unfavorable

That's kind of a big drop.  Was their first poll registered voters?
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6599 on: October 25, 2010, 03:23:03 pm »

Same as it always is: likely registered voters.  It's quasi likely voter screen, but one that doesn't make that big of a difference.  Obama is at 47/50 among adults in Gallup, so they are consistent.

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