The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5550 on: August 02, 2010, 08:32:19 PM »

Obama Approval Rating July 2010 (Gallup):

46% Approve

47% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 40/43 (July 1978)

Reagan: 42/47 (July 1982)

Bush I: 62/25 (July 1990)

Clinton: 43/49 (July 1994)

Bush II: 72/22 (July 2002)


An oddity: the ones with the two highest approval ratings were either defeated or came close to being defeated. The elder Bush had practically no legislative legacy; Dubya's was largely patronage for special interests, but even that is more efficacious in getting re-elected.

Reagan and Clinton each had a legislative agenda. Ronald Reagan was more successful at getting his passed. Legislative success would seem to be the key to getting re-elected   irrespective of the content. Getting it passed early is decisive. The first year and a half is essential, because it takes almost another two years for people to get accustomed to it.

What was Carter's legislative success? At the same time he was only two points behind Reagan and three behind Clinton in approval rating. Clinton got nearly 54.7% of the popular votes (rule out the Perot vote effectively wasted) that meant anything and 379 electoral votes. Reagan got about 58.8% of the popular vote and 525 electoral votes.

So Carter should have gotten at least 52% of the popular vote and maybe 330 or so electoral votes? No, it wasn't only the 444 Americans held hostage in Iran; if Jimmy Carter really had a legislative success he might have had more credibility to thugs in Iran.

Liberals may have despised Ronald Reagan, but he was effective. Effective is good enough for winning re-election. It shows decisiveness.

So far, except for the side of the political spectrum, Obama has more in common with Reagan than with Carter.  That's not to say that Barack Obama will win  58% of the popular vote and force people to wait until very late on Election Night, 2002 (when the result for the 3rd Congressional District of Nebraska is the first to go for the Republican nominee along with Wyoming, Utah, and Idaho). President Obama has one characteristic that absolutely ensures that he will not win a Reagan-like mandate in 2012, and it is so obvious that it need not be mentioned. Colin Powell would have the same problem.

But that is far less of a political problem than what Jimmy Carter had: non-achievement as a whole.  John Anderson funneling away what would have been liberal votes? Had Jimmy Carter been at all effective, then John Anderson would be largely a forgotten man except in his Congressional district, and he would have been elected. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5551 on: August 03, 2010, 12:32:31 AM »

CA (PPIC):

2502 Adults: 56-38
1971 RV: 54-41
1321 LV: 50-46

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama0710.pdf

AZ (Rasmussen): 39-60

LINK

MN (Star Tribune): 44-44

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/99734359.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUMEaPc:E7_ec7PaP3iUiacyKUnciaec8O7EyUr

NH (UNH/WMUR): 51-44 (51-42 favorable)

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2010_summer_presapp080210.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5552 on: August 03, 2010, 06:12:11 AM »
« Edited: August 03, 2010, 04:48:15 PM by pbrower2a »


MN -- too many undecided, CA too long a polling period. Otherwise OK.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  54
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call  110
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  53
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  56
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 127



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......





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J. J.
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« Reply #5553 on: August 03, 2010, 08:41:43 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1 .


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%,+1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, -1.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5554 on: August 03, 2010, 02:19:44 PM »

NY (Rasmussen): 57-42

CO (Rasmussen): 44-55

WA (PPP): 49-47

MN -- too many undecided, and too long a polling period. Otherwise OK.

Shouldn´t a tie be white in your map ?
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #5555 on: August 03, 2010, 02:31:44 PM »

CA, WA, NY, CO, AZ, MN, &NH
(And got around to fixing the numbers on Maine and Nebraska!)


30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5556 on: August 03, 2010, 04:44:19 PM »
« Edited: August 04, 2010, 08:22:57 AM by pbrower2a »

Florida Survey of 750 Likely Voters

Conducted August 2, 2010

By Rasmussen Reports

 

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly

approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s

been doing?

     

        31% Strongly approve

       18% Somewhat approve

         6% Somewhat disapprove

       44% Strongly disapprove

          0% Not sure


 Nearly 50-50 approval in the most "purple" of states.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll



deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  44
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  56
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 127



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......






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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5557 on: August 03, 2010, 04:53:39 PM »

NY (Rasmussen): 57-42

CO (Rasmussen): 44-55

WA (PPP): 49-47

MN -- too many undecided, CA too long a polling period. Otherwise OK.

Shouldn´t a tie be white in your map ?

I don't have a category for under 45% but tied, which is practically worthless. 45% or more? A tie would probably appear white. When undecided are larger than the margin of error one has a poll that says that most people have yet to have an opinion.

Most of the polls are Rasmussen, anyway, and they almost never show 10% undecided on approval of the President.
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Devilman88
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« Reply #5558 on: August 03, 2010, 05:06:44 PM »

NY (Rasmussen): 57-42

CO (Rasmussen): 44-55

WA (PPP): 49-47

MN -- too many undecided, CA too long a polling period. Otherwise OK.

Shouldn´t a tie be white in your map ?

I don't have a category for under 45% but tied, which is practically worthless. 45% or more? A tie would probably appear white. When undecided are larger than the margin of error one has a poll that says that most people have yet to have an opinion.

Most of the polls are Rasmussen, anyway, and they almost never show 10% undecided on approval of the President.

So in other words you don't want to use this poll because it makes Obama look bad.. Ok, good to know.
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Donald Trump’s Toupée
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« Reply #5559 on: August 03, 2010, 08:43:07 PM »

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the new USA Today/Gallup poll that has Obama at 41%....ouch.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5560 on: August 03, 2010, 10:14:16 PM »

NY (Rasmussen): 57-42

CO (Rasmussen): 44-55

WA (PPP): 49-47

MN -- too many undecided, CA too long a polling period. Otherwise OK.

Shouldn´t a tie be white in your map ?

I don't have a category for under 45% but tied, which is practically worthless. 45% or more? A tie would probably appear white. When undecided are larger than the margin of error one has a poll that says that most people have yet to have an opinion.

Most of the polls are Rasmussen, anyway, and they almost never show 10% undecided on approval of the President.

So in other words you don't want to use this poll because it makes Obama look bad.. Ok, good to know.

If I used it I would have to give it the infamous letter S.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5561 on: August 04, 2010, 12:21:07 AM »

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the new USA Today/Gallup poll that has Obama at 41%....ouch.

Probably an outlier but that poll should be good for a toxic news cycle. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5562 on: August 04, 2010, 01:17:19 AM »

Wyoming (Mason Dixon):

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #5563 on: August 04, 2010, 02:19:21 AM »

Not bad, considering Obama got 32% of the vote there in 2008.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5564 on: August 04, 2010, 08:25:20 AM »

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the new USA Today/Gallup poll that has Obama at 41%....ouch.

Extremely inconsistent with Rasmussen giving a 49-50 split in Florida today. One or the other is an outlier.
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J. J.
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« Reply #5565 on: August 04, 2010, 09:24:09 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 53%, u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, u.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5566 on: August 04, 2010, 10:13:12 AM »


EGFP -- so I can't use it.

Hardest-to-get electoral votes for Obama, 2012:

1. NE-03
2. Wyoming
3. Utah
4. Idaho
5. Oklahoma
6. Alaska
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #5567 on: August 04, 2010, 10:35:41 AM »

New Jersey (FDU)

49% Approve
40% Disapprove

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 801 registered voters statewide was conducted by telephone from July 27, 2010, through August 2, 2010, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/gov1008/
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5568 on: August 04, 2010, 11:12:27 AM »

FL (Rasmussen): 49-50

OH (Rasmussen): 46-53
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5569 on: August 04, 2010, 11:34:25 AM »

NC (PPP): 46-50

Do you support or oppose holding the 2012 Democratic National Convention in North Carolina ?

58% Support
23% Oppose

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_804.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5570 on: August 04, 2010, 12:06:55 PM »
« Edited: August 04, 2010, 11:19:49 PM by pbrower2a »

Ohio Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 2, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

      

       29% Strongly approve

       17% Somewhat approve

       11% Somewhat disapprove

       42% Strongly disapprove

         1% Not sure

NC, too.  An campaigning in either state would win the state.




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 87
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  44
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  41
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 127



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......







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Sbane
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« Reply #5571 on: August 04, 2010, 07:19:01 PM »

FL (Rasmussen): 49-50

OH (Rasmussen): 46-53

Looks like VA, OH and FL will be the states that decide who is president in 2012. Colorado seems to have gone back to a Republican lean.
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Derek
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« Reply #5572 on: August 04, 2010, 09:28:10 PM »

He's doing terrible and clinging onto anything that he thinks may help him. Support amongst blacks and hispanics is down too.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5573 on: August 05, 2010, 09:27:32 AM »
« Edited: August 05, 2010, 05:50:40 PM by pbrower2a »

California State Survey of 750 Likely Voters
Conducted August 3, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

     34% Strongly approve
     22% Somewhat approve
       7% Somewhat disapprove
     34% Strongly disapprove
       3% Not sure

Kansas State Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 4, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

22% Strongly approve
14% Somewhat approve
14% Somewhat disapprove
49% Strongly disapprove
  1% Not sure

Michigan Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Conducted August 4, 2010
By Rasmussen Reports

1* How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?

30% Strongly approve
16% Somewhat approve
12% Somewhat disapprove
42% Strongly disapprove
  0% Not sure




Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval, 90% if >70%)
40-43% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
44% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll




District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater  144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin  82
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 87
white                        too close to call  20
pale blue                  Republican  under 5%  44
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin  41
deep blue                 Republican over 10% 127



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 46%, 5% at 46%, 4% between 47% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

 This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages unless they are demonstrable failures.

......

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5574 on: August 05, 2010, 02:03:01 PM »

NC needs to be red in your map and MN needs to be completely white.
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