The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1273814 times)
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4250 on: March 23, 2010, 11:28:59 AM »

Just ignore Vanderblub, here`s a real poll:

Indiana (Rasmussen)Sad

39% Approve
60% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Indiana was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 17-18, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/indiana/toplines/toplines_2010_indiana_senate_march_17_18_2010

John Kerry numbers!

Indeed, Indiana was for him before they were against him!

Lowest point for Obama in Indiana yet, and probably the lowest point for a long time. This one is still from before the HCR passage, as was the one for Iowa.

Weren't you cautioning just yesterday that no one should make predictions about the future yet regarding Obama's popularity and HCR?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4251 on: March 23, 2010, 01:13:01 PM »

[Arizona, Wisconsin



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green


Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

.... all preceding the vote on health-care reform.

I plan to add an asterisk to the "C"  for polls that end between March 22, 2010 and March 31, 2010 to reflect a changed political climate. There will be no averaging between polls ending before and after March 22, 2010.  

... Still no asterisks.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4252 on: March 23, 2010, 02:02:34 PM »

Those state numbers are hideous for Obama, for those states.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4253 on: March 23, 2010, 04:05:02 PM »

Those state numbers are hideous for Obama, for those states.

Hideous, indeed. They also coincide with the lowest points of approval for President Obama in nationwide tracking polls.  There has been an uptick since then, but we have nothing after the passage of health care reform. The tense environment is no more, and the catcalls have abated.

I am hedging my language on any predictions on whether President Obama will get any improvements in statewide polls over the next few weeks. I am prepared to believe that those of the last week of March stand to be very different from those of mid-March, and effectively those from November to mid-March. That the President was  heavily associated with a high-risk piece of legislation looked bad. Now he has won. That can make a difference in how he is perceived as President. 

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change08
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« Reply #4254 on: March 23, 2010, 05:18:42 PM »

Those state numbers are hideous for Obama, for those states.

State polls tend to lag behind nationals in my opinion. It happens in Presidential elections to.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4255 on: March 23, 2010, 05:41:32 PM »

Portent of a turnaround? Health care reform was long the weak spot of President Obama.


http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-03-23-health-poll-favorable_N.htm

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Bull Moose Base
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« Reply #4256 on: March 23, 2010, 06:36:07 PM »

The one consistency in presidential approval ratings over the years is inconsistency.  The one predictable thing is unpredictability.  He's still not one third of the way between Inauguration and Election Day 2012.  Obama's approvals have fallen in the 14 months since he started, and they're very likely to both rise and fall at different points over the course of the 31 months between now and his next election.  Where they end up in November 2012 will be hard to predict even in March of 2012, let alone now.  The end.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4257 on: March 23, 2010, 07:46:56 PM »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Gallup three-day rolling average:

51 Approve, 43 disapprove

3-23-2010.

//////

http://www.gallup.com/poll/126929/Slim-Margin-Americans-Support-Healthcare-Bill-Passage.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- Nearly half of Americans give a thumbs-up to Congress' passage of a healthcare reform bill last weekend, with 49% calling it "a good thing." Republicans and Democrats have polar opposite reactions, with independents evenly split.The findings, from a March 22 USA Today/Gallup poll conducted one day after the bill received a majority of votes in the U.S. House of Representatives, represent immediate reactions to the vote.

Americans' emotional responses to the bill's passage are more positive than negative -- with 50% enthusiastic or pleased versus 42% angry or disappointed -- and are similar to their general reactions.

Although much of the public debate over healthcare reform has been heated, barely a third of rank-and-file citizens express either enthusiasm (15%) or anger (19%) about the bill's passage. However, only Democrats show greater enthusiasm than anger. Independents are twice as likely to be angry as enthusiastic, and Republicans 10 times as likely.

Passage of healthcare reform was a clear political victory for President Obama and his allies in Congress. While it also pleases most of his Democratic base nationwide, it is met with greater ambivalence among independents and with considerable antipathy among Republicans. Whether these groups' views on the issue harden or soften in the coming months could be crucial to how healthcare reform factors into this year's midterm elections. Given that initial public reaction to Sunday's vote is more positive than recent public opinion about passing a healthcare reform bill, it appears some softening has already occurred.


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deliriumipa
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« Reply #4258 on: March 23, 2010, 09:09:33 PM »

Do you think Obama will have a big bump due to the passage of health care?  He's at 51% on gallup now and was 46% last week
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4259 on: March 23, 2010, 10:34:04 PM »

Do you think Obama will have a big bump due to the passage of health care?  He's at 51% on gallup now and was 46% last week

How big and how solid? We don't know. I am going to add an asterisk to any statewide poll in March (but not April) after the passage of health care reform.   There could be a bigger difference between March 27 and March 17 than between March 17 and January 17. Health care reform was President Obama's greatest vulnerability. He has done well on much else. The focus goes away from a seeming failure to other things.

The real issue may be how some House and Senate races go. Example: Senator Harry Reid seemed to be going down to a crashing defeat. Is he now still headed to a crashing defeat? I can't be so sure.

The Republicans may be in deep trouble. They may have satisfied their ideological base but few else. 
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #4260 on: March 23, 2010, 11:36:18 PM »

Health Care Bill Polls:

CBS: 37% support, 48% oppose.
Bloomberg: 39% support, 50% oppose.
CNN: 39% support, 59% oppose.

These three polls were all as of 3/21 or later.
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fezzyfestoon
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« Reply #4261 on: March 24, 2010, 12:07:17 AM »

The Republicans may be in deep trouble.

Hahaha, yes.  If anything has become clear over the past year it's that Republicans are in deep trouble.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4262 on: March 24, 2010, 02:56:28 AM »

Ohio (PPP)Sad

40% Approve
53% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 630 Ohio voters on March 20th and 21st. The margin of error for the survey
is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/03/tough-times-for-dems-in-midwest.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4263 on: March 24, 2010, 07:01:37 AM »

Ohio (PPP)Sad

40% Approve
53% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 630 Ohio voters on March 20th and 21st. The margin of error for the survey
is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/03/tough-times-for-dems-in-midwest.html

Perhaps by now as obsolete as the weather forecast of the day.  Not a fault of the poll.
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« Reply #4264 on: March 24, 2010, 07:02:58 AM »

Ohio (PPP)Sad

40% Approve
53% Disapprove

PPP surveyed 630 Ohio voters on March 20th and 21st. The margin of error for the survey
is +/-3.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce
additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/03/tough-times-for-dems-in-midwest.html

Perhaps by now as obsolete as the weather forecast of the day.  Not a fault of the poll.

Yes, it's wrong. It's impossible for Obama to have net disapproval now. Toss this junk!
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Badger
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« Reply #4265 on: March 24, 2010, 08:57:19 AM »


Yep.  I still am.  And I never said in my post above that I personally am against the bill or the president on this issue.  What I'm against are officials who're elected to represent the will of the people not doing their jobs.  When a majority of your constituents don't like something you're doing, you should either stop completely or go at it using a different approach.  The fact is, we need health care reform, but the way they've approached the reform hasn't worked.  So instead of having the support of the majority of the people, they're going to be shoving this thing down the throats (that's what she said - sorry...) of citizens who are against it.  It's going to backfire.

There's always the tension in democracy of the balance leaders must strike between following the dictates of their constituency vs. striving to lead towards immediately unpopular but necessary reforms.

From what I've seen generally polls that ask Americans if they support (insert generic description of current HCR plan) the majority clearly (albeit not overwhelmingly) support it, especially if it includes language describing a public option. If polls ask whether Americans support "the Obama/ Congress's/ Democratic/currently proposed" plan they tend to split or lean opposed. That indicates when the smoke and heat from the immediate debate subsides this is a plan most Americans will support over the status quo, thus justifying Obama's firm efforts to push this through.

Put another way, half-baked accusations of death panels and the like finding some fertile ground among the gullible and temporarily reducing poll support for HCR is no reason to abandon it.

New taxes without immediate benefits won't go over well, though.

True enough, which is my biggest concern about HCR (and Obama) surviving until 2014.

Still, there are several things that help here: 1) Some popular portions of the law kick in this year, such as regulating insurance companies denying/revoking coverage; 2) The taxes effect only a tiny tiny percentage of voters (albeit a group that through their wealth has inordinate influence in politics and the media); and 3) perhaps most importantly voters and politicians are already starting to accept HCR as a done deal, which is accordingly gaining in support now that it's a reality and the world (or even the US health care system) hasn't promptly collapsed or reverted to Stalinism as predicted.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4266 on: March 24, 2010, 09:47:26 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%

Disapprove 52%

Both unchanged.

"Strongly Approve" is at 31%.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.



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J. J.
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« Reply #4267 on: March 24, 2010, 10:07:34 AM »



The Republicans may be in deep trouble. They may have satisfied their ideological base but few else. 

Looking at the 'bot, the only thing Obamacare may have done was rally his base.  He might basically stopped the hemorrhaging, though it was more of a slow leak.



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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4268 on: March 24, 2010, 01:02:31 PM »

If you're going to see a bump in Obama's numbers regarding health care, it will be primarily with Democrats. I'd guess his numbers will enjoy a short-term shoring up in heavily Democratic states (which would be a godsend for Dems in California and Illinois, two Senate seats trending "competitive" where Republicans should be anything but).'

I doubt it moves the needle appreciably in his favor in Ohio.

Anyway, once this health care dust settles, the question becomes: What next? What is Obama going to do over the next eight months to avoid further erosion of his numbers due to the economy?
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Vepres
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« Reply #4269 on: March 24, 2010, 01:09:46 PM »


Yep.  I still am.  And I never said in my post above that I personally am against the bill or the president on this issue.  What I'm against are officials who're elected to represent the will of the people not doing their jobs.  When a majority of your constituents don't like something you're doing, you should either stop completely or go at it using a different approach.  The fact is, we need health care reform, but the way they've approached the reform hasn't worked.  So instead of having the support of the majority of the people, they're going to be shoving this thing down the throats (that's what she said - sorry...) of citizens who are against it.  It's going to backfire.

There's always the tension in democracy of the balance leaders must strike between following the dictates of their constituency vs. striving to lead towards immediately unpopular but necessary reforms.

From what I've seen generally polls that ask Americans if they support (insert generic description of current HCR plan) the majority clearly (albeit not overwhelmingly) support it, especially if it includes language describing a public option. If polls ask whether Americans support "the Obama/ Congress's/ Democratic/currently proposed" plan they tend to split or lean opposed. That indicates when the smoke and heat from the immediate debate subsides this is a plan most Americans will support over the status quo, thus justifying Obama's firm efforts to push this through.

Put another way, half-baked accusations of death panels and the like finding some fertile ground among the gullible and temporarily reducing poll support for HCR is no reason to abandon it.

New taxes without immediate benefits won't go over well, though.

True enough, which is my biggest concern about HCR (and Obama) surviving until 2014.

Still, there are several things that help here: 1) Some popular portions of the law kick in this year, such as regulating insurance companies denying/revoking coverage; 2) The taxes effect only a tiny tiny percentage of voters (albeit a group that through their wealth has inordinate influence in politics and the media); and 3) perhaps most importantly voters and politicians are already starting to accept HCR as a done deal, which is accordingly gaining in support now that it's a reality and the world (or even the US health care system) hasn't promptly collapsed or reverted to Stalinism as predicted.

This can have negative consequences though. One the one hand, people realize the bill isn't nearly as big a deal as they thought, so those opposed to it won't really care much about it. However, supporters will also start to realize this isn't the amazing fix that would last for decades either. Honestly, I think this will be like NCLB, lots of debate when being pushed through but really not relevant when it comes to approvals and elections.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #4270 on: March 24, 2010, 01:26:33 PM »

If you're going to see a bump in Obama's numbers regarding health care, it will be primarily with Democrats. I'd guess his numbers will enjoy a short-term shoring up in heavily Democratic states (which would be a godsend for Dems in California and Illinois, two Senate seats trending "competitive" where Republicans should be anything but).'

Don't forget Congressional races.

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Recent poor polls in Indiana and Ohio probably relate more to the overall economy than anything else. But that said, we must remember that there have been some vitriolic ads directed at any Democrat who said that he would vote for health care reform, part of the vitriol being the claim that health care reform would cost jobs. When people are afraid of losing their jobs, they might be vulnerable to any attack ads attempting to associate health care reform with job losses.

What isn't said that escalating costs of health care themselves put jobs at risk.

In any event, the poisoned environment of American political life has gotten some antidote. Obama won, and the Republicans came out with nothing.

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One hopes that we will see the job-creating stage of the economic recovery.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4271 on: March 24, 2010, 02:22:59 PM »


I'm not, but the *real* battleground races are in R+x districts, some heavily tilting towards the GOP. These are not the places where Obama's "victory" helps matters.

In any event, the poisoned environment of American political life has gotten some antidote. Obama won, and the Republicans came out with nothing.

A very short-term antidote. Massachusetts' version of HCR has, by some measures, gotten less popular as time goes on. And we're all freakin' Democrats.

One hopes that we will see the job-creating stage of the economic recovery.

One hopes, yes. I'm not terribly optimistic.
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Rowan
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« Reply #4272 on: March 24, 2010, 02:50:19 PM »

I'm back!



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
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J. J.
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« Reply #4273 on: March 24, 2010, 05:10:01 PM »


One hopes that we will see the job-creating stage of the economic recovery.

One hopes, yes. I'm not terribly optimistic.

Nor am I.  The current "Misery Index" numbers are higher than at any point during the GWB administration.  You actually have to go back the recession of 1991 to find even comparable numbers.  http://www.miseryindex.us/customindexbymonth.asp
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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #4274 on: March 24, 2010, 05:56:58 PM »

I'm back!



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

I still want to know how in hell the Northwest is in Red.
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