The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1257538 times)
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MagneticFree
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« Reply #2450 on: September 16, 2009, 08:30:22 PM »

I don't know whats with all the letters, so I'm changing it back to numbers.
I will not be picking and choosing which polls to put on.



When making the map, tick off the box that shows Congressional Districts - since most of the polls for either Nebraska or Maine are going to be state-wide anyway... And if we're having Green >30% for >50% ties, we should have Yellow >30% for <50% ties.
Based on polls, this it an update what I think the 2012 election will turnout.
Dem - 249
Rep - 257
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2451 on: September 17, 2009, 12:01:37 AM »

Massachusetts (Suffolk University)Sad

64% Favorable
30% Unfavorable

The statewide survey of 500 Massachusetts registered voters was conducted Sept. 12-15, 2009. Of those polled, 39 percent were registered Democrats, 15 percent Republicans, and 44 percent independent. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.

http://www.suffolk.edu/37947.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2452 on: September 17, 2009, 04:59:24 AM »
« Edited: September 17, 2009, 05:02:04 AM by pbrower2a »

Massachusetts update (no surprise there):




The New Jersey poll relates to voters in a gubernatorial race in 2009; I consider it void as a measure of the approval for Obama . 


Explanation of the letters:

A January                     G July
B February                   H August
C March                        I September
D April                          J October
E May                           K November
F June                           L December

Z -- no poll since the election

Letters show the age of the most reliable and credible poll. Age of the poll is relevant.

* -- small states in territory, or districts that have their own electoral vote for which I can't find the most recent poll.

Colors:

Green -- positive approval rating. The lightest is for a positive difference with the approval under 50%. Darker shades of green are for higher levels of approval.

Aqua -- exact 50-50 tie, which I have just seen today.

White -- exact tie with an approval under 50%.

Orange -- old positive approvals that I no longer consider relevant and reliable. These are  as a rule in states that Obama lost.

Yellow -- any  state or district in which  disapproval is higher than approval for Obama; darker shades indicate stronger disapproval.

Gray -- unpolled. Those are Alaska, DC, Maryland, Mississippi, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming.

I colored Utah yellow because it is Utah. I colored NE-01 and NE-03 yellow because they voted for McCain. I colored ME-01 and ME-02 because the voted very close to the pattern for Maine itself, which voted decisively for Obama.

Trouble spots are Indiana and NE-02 because they voted for Obama and have been polled --if with aging polls -- positively for Obama. That is very different from the cases with South Carolina, South Dakota, and Tennessee. I am not going to color those yellow or orange until they are polled again. If I am not making a quick change of color for Iowa or Wisconsin to green until I see a poll for either state, than I will not do so for Indiana or NE-02.





 

 
 
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2453 on: September 17, 2009, 05:07:48 AM »

Massachusetts update (no surprise there):

Once again, I would like to point out that you're adding a poll that measures Obama's *favorability* rating, not his *job approval* rating.
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Zarn
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« Reply #2454 on: September 17, 2009, 07:55:05 AM »

He doesn't care. He is just trying to make Obama look as good as possible.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2455 on: September 17, 2009, 08:07:14 AM »

North Carolina (Rasmussen)Sad

47% Approve
52% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, September 15, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/north_carolina/toplines/toplines_2010_north_carolina_senate_september_15_2009
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2456 on: September 17, 2009, 08:09:59 AM »

Connecticut (Quinnipiac University)Sad

57% Approve
36% Disapprove

From September 10 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 921 Connecticut registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The survey includes 248 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 6.2 percentage points and 342 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 5.3 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1374
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2457 on: September 17, 2009, 08:16:31 AM »

North Carolina goes from 40% disapprove-50% disapprove. Connecticut goes from 60%-50% approving.


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RIP Robert H Bork
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« Reply #2458 on: September 17, 2009, 08:18:58 AM »

He doesn't care. He is just trying to make Obama look as good as possible.

^^^^
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2459 on: September 17, 2009, 10:17:20 AM »

North Carolina (Rasmussen)Sad

47% Approve
52% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, September 15, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/north_carolina/toplines/toplines_2010_north_carolina_senate_september_15_2009

That's not that bad, considering it's North Carolina and Rasmussen's Republican house effect.
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Zarn
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« Reply #2460 on: September 17, 2009, 10:21:12 AM »

Right now, 22 states are in the "yellow."

Come on Obama. You can do it. Just 4 more. Wink

Although, Alaska, Mississippi, North Dakota, Wyoming, South Dakota, South Carolina, and Tennessee are all probably "yellow" right now.

DC, Vermont, and Maryland are likely "green."

I always saw yellow as a lukewarm color rather than a color of disapproval. The lukewarm people barely approve, and there is no color for that. They just get stuck with light green. Sad
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #2461 on: September 17, 2009, 11:34:22 AM »

MidtermOdd-year elections are very different from Presidential and even midterm elections; they have far lesser participation, and such elections tend to be more Republican than those in Presidential years.

Actually, in New Jersey, midterm elections see almost identical turnout when you compare them to odd-year gubernatorial elections.  Some of the voters will be different, sure, but I don't think they're going to be as different as you think.

In 2005, 49% turned out; it was 48% in 2006.  In 2001, 49% turned out; it was 46% in 2002.

Comparitively, 73% turned out for the 2008 Presidential election; only 32% showed up for odd-year State Senate legislative midterms (2007).  Expect that already-low number to get even worse next decade—State Assemblymen will top the ticket in 2015 and 2019.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2462 on: September 17, 2009, 11:43:59 AM »

I kind of want to change the yellow states to red states. Granted, that is a party color, but red means negative. I might start doing that.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2463 on: September 17, 2009, 12:50:23 PM »

Texas Republicans (Rasmussen):

18% Approve
80% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/texas/toplines/toplines_texas_republican_primary_september_16_2009
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Devilman88
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« Reply #2464 on: September 17, 2009, 01:14:13 PM »
« Edited: September 17, 2009, 01:18:30 PM by Devilman88 »




Green- Has positive approval rating
Red- Has negative approval rating
White- Tie
Orange- Out of date poll
Gray- No Data






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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2465 on: September 17, 2009, 01:14:51 PM »

Pew Research:

55% Approve
33% Disapprove

Results for this survey are based on telephone interviews conducted under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates among a nationwide sample of 1,006 adults, 18 years of age or older, from September 10-15, 2009.

Total sample 1,006
Republicans 250
Democrats 353
Independents 327

http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/545.pdf
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change08
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« Reply #2466 on: September 17, 2009, 01:17:28 PM »


I would've expected worse for some reason.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2467 on: September 17, 2009, 01:33:21 PM »

NC update:



... I promise: unless Indiana or NE-02 is polled by September 31, it goes "orange". Six months is clearly outdated.
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« Reply #2468 on: September 17, 2009, 01:43:24 PM »

NC update:



... I promise: unless Indiana or NE-02 is polled by September 31, it goes "orange". Six months is clearly outdated.

Any older than a month and a half, at the most, should really be orange.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2469 on: September 17, 2009, 01:51:08 PM »

Virginia (Rasmussen)Sad

49% Approve
50% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 16, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_september_16_2009
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Zarn
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« Reply #2470 on: September 17, 2009, 01:54:19 PM »

Virginia (Rasmussen)Sad

49% Approve
50% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 16, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/virginia/toplines/toplines_virginia_governor_election_september_16_2009

*Sigh*

Don't you know that NJ and VA polls that have Obama below 50% don't count.

Hack!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2471 on: September 17, 2009, 03:10:50 PM »

Here's why that poll does not count:

9* Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?

34% Strongly favor

12% Somewhat favor

6% Somewhat oppose

45% Strongly oppose

3% Not sure

The question is excessively specific on one issue and to broad in  responsibility (it includes Congress). It does not ask either for general approval or general favorability of the President.

 As such it is disqualified for my map.

Most recent poll,
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2472 on: September 17, 2009, 03:13:37 PM »

Here's why that poll does not count:

9* Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?

34% Strongly favor

12% Somewhat favor

6% Somewhat oppose

45% Strongly oppose

3% Not sure

The question is excessively specific on one issue and to broad in  responsibility (it includes Congress). It does not ask either for general approval or general favorability of the President.

 As such it is disqualified for my map.

Most recent poll,

LOL.

What about question 1:

"How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President… do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job he’s been doing?"
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Rowan
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« Reply #2473 on: September 17, 2009, 03:19:31 PM »

Pbrower has to be one of the most brain dead people I have ever dealt with.
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Alcon
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« Reply #2474 on: September 17, 2009, 03:21:02 PM »

We now have two maps that are misinterpreting poll results in unique ways Tongue
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