The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 19, 2021, 12:54:18 AM

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 39 40 41 42 43 [44] 45 46 47 48 49 ... 410
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1086257 times)
Devilman88
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1075 on: June 11, 2009, 07:16:17 PM »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.


Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.


After a 52% approval rating for Obama in Virginia, I cut the estimate down from a 10% margin to a 5% margin. That is the line, and does that put Virginia in the "bare" or "weak" category? The 2008 election makes the decision. Such is my judgment, as I am in no position to judge a poll.

I like my way better Tongue
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,506
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1076 on: June 11, 2009, 07:25:52 PM »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.


Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.


After a 52% approval rating for Obama in Virginia, I cut the estimate down from a 10% margin to a 5% margin. That is the line, and does that put Virginia in the "bare" or "weak" category? The 2008 election makes the decision. Such is my judgment, as I am in no position to judge a poll.

I like my way better Tongue

National polls are a good control, but let's remember: the States elect the President; the people don't.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1077 on: June 11, 2009, 09:27:37 PM »

If his approvals in VA are down, he will not end up getting more votes there...
Logged
Devilman88
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,498


Political Matrix
E: 5.94, S: 2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1078 on: June 11, 2009, 09:30:03 PM »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.


Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.


After a 52% approval rating for Obama in Virginia, I cut the estimate down from a 10% margin to a 5% margin. That is the line, and does that put Virginia in the "bare" or "weak" category? The 2008 election makes the decision. Such is my judgment, as I am in no position to judge a poll.

I like my way better Tongue

National polls are a good control, but let's remember: the States elect the President; the people don't.

Huh?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,107
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1079 on: June 11, 2009, 11:46:56 PM »

Wisconsin (Research 2000)Sad

63% Favorable
31% Unfavorable

The Research 2000 Wisconsin Poll was conducted from June 8 through June 10, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/6/10/WI/309
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,107
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1080 on: June 11, 2009, 11:48:14 PM »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.

Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.

I agree, outliers happen.

And Rasmussen's final VA poll before the election wasn't the best either ...
Logged
Mr.Phips
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,200


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1081 on: June 12, 2009, 12:03:40 AM »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.

Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.

I agree, outliers happen.

And Rasmussen's final VA poll before the election wasn't the best either ...

Didnt he show Obama up just 49%-48% in the final VA poll?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,107
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1082 on: June 12, 2009, 12:07:27 AM »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.

Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.

I agree, outliers happen.

And Rasmussen's final VA poll before the election wasn't the best either ...

Didnt he show Obama up just 49%-48% in the final VA poll?

51-47

Fox News Poll

Obama Approval/Disapproval

Overall: 63%/31%

Hmm, I find it strange to see Gallup's adult voter model having lower approvals than Fox's registered voter model ...
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1083 on: June 12, 2009, 08:50:48 AM »

Fox always gave him high approvals...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,107
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1084 on: June 12, 2009, 01:41:33 PM »

Illinois (Rasmussen)Sad

62% Approve
37% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/states_general/illinois/61_of_illinois_voters_say_they_would_definitely_vote_against_roland_burris
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,941
United Kingdom
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1085 on: June 12, 2009, 04:10:05 PM »

Hmm, I find it strange to see Gallup's adult voter model having lower approvals than Fox's registered voter model ...

Fox is a liberal commie poll, quite obviously.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1086 on: June 12, 2009, 05:20:58 PM »

Hmm, I find it strange to see Gallup's adult voter model having lower approvals than Fox's registered voter model ...

Fox is a liberal commie poll, quite obviously.

Like I just said, but you ignored... Fox always gives him high ratings.
Logged
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,708
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 2.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1087 on: June 12, 2009, 06:56:04 PM »

National - Ipsos-McClatchy [June 4-8, 2009]

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=4429

Approve 64% (-1)
Disapprove 32% (+1)

1023 adults; 823 registered voters
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,107
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1088 on: June 13, 2009, 01:43:19 PM »

Gallup is back to normal levels again:

63-29 (+4, -5)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,208
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1089 on: June 14, 2009, 03:27:59 PM »

So, in four different national polls Obama's approval is 63(Gallup), 63(R2k), 64(Ipsos) and 62(Fox).
Yet Rassmusen gives him 62 at his home state.

Ooooookay!
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1090 on: June 14, 2009, 03:45:46 PM »

KOS doesn't have an approval rating. It's a favorable rating. Big difference. But then again, you're not smart enough to realize that.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,208
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1091 on: June 14, 2009, 03:46:49 PM »

KOS doesn't have an approval rating. It's a favorable rating. Big difference. But then again, you're not smart enough to realize that.

Hey, at least I haven't misplaced a whole state.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1092 on: June 14, 2009, 03:47:43 PM »

KOS doesn't have an approval rating. It's a favorable rating. Big difference. But then again, you're not smart enough to realize that.

Hey, at least I haven't misplaced a whole state.

Whatever the hell that even means...
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,208
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1093 on: June 14, 2009, 04:02:54 PM »

KOS doesn't have an approval rating. It's a favorable rating. Big difference. But then again, you're not smart enough to realize that.

Hey, at least I haven't misplaced a whole state.

Whatever the hell that even means...

And you are supposed to be the smart one. Roll Eyes
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1094 on: June 14, 2009, 04:05:33 PM »

KOS doesn't have an approval rating. It's a favorable rating. Big difference. But then again, you're not smart enough to realize that.

Hey, at least I haven't misplaced a whole state.

Whatever the hell that even means...

And you are supposed to be the smart one. Roll Eyes

Sorry, I don't speak gibberish.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,208
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1095 on: June 14, 2009, 04:09:23 PM »


Ok, let's explain it to you like you're a four year old.

You seem to have misplaced a state the size of New Jersey.

Got it son?
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,692


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1096 on: June 14, 2009, 04:12:06 PM »


Ok, let's explain it to you like you're a four year old.

You seem to have misplaced a state the size of New Jersey.

Got it son?

Oh.

Hilarious.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,506
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1097 on: June 14, 2009, 10:52:59 PM »



Please bear with me: Some blogger who did some poll-watching with an algorithm, someone capable of assessing the bias in polling and did a good job of predicting the 2008 election, uses a system similar to mine. Someone at www.fivethirtyeight.com has combined multiple polls, election results, and the national trend to show how "Election June 2009" would go:   

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.





(Note well: anything not in any shade of blue gives Obama a positive rating, the lowest of which is 50.0% in Louisiana). Even those in pink look as if Obama would get 55% or more of the vote based on approval ratings alone, which implies that he would win them by double-digit margins. Really, anything in gray or the medium shade of blue (that's right --

T-E-X-A-S

should be considered a toss-up for now.


Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.



Key (different from the one you expect from me, but for approval ratings):

Near-black 70% or more
Deep red: 65-69.99%
Medium red: 60-64.9%
Pink 55-59.9%
Gray 50-54.9%
Blue 45-45.9%
Deep blue  44.9% or less


My new projection (I will add orange for states and in which Obama seems to have an approval rating above 52.5) based on Nate Silver:   




Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins up to 9%

tossup -- Obama wins barely, if at all (under 5%)
Obama wins 5-9.9%
pink, reddeep red, or near-black Obama wins by more than 10%


The near-black are DC, Hawaii, and Rhode Island, all hard to see. The usual caveats apply: who the GOP nominee is, and of course (by 2012) how good a President Obama is.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1098 on: June 14, 2009, 11:36:39 PM »

Didn't someone tell you that approval and who would actually vote for him are two different things?
Logged
War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,647
Uzbekistan


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -8.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1099 on: June 15, 2009, 12:33:03 AM »

These keep getting better and better.  I'm not a big fan of the rub-it-in thing after an election is over, but this is just too obnoxious.  I hope this is still going strong by the time 2012 rolls around because these maps are going to be hilarious.  And they'll be totally within the limits of reasonable gloating because of the total arrogance of the whole thing.  "Like, duh Obama is going to win Missouri by more than 10 points, are you kidding me?  Pssh..."
Don't tell me you guys didn't do this after 2004. At least we have more logic on our side than you guys did, Bush barely beat John Kerry, who was an anemic candidate. Obama could easily be an extremely popular president and you know your party has huge problems right now. Chances are that he will win pretty easily if the economy improves. Nothing definite can be said right now though, that's for sure.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 39 40 41 42 43 [44] 45 46 47 48 49 ... 410  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.103 seconds with 13 queries.