The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1050 on: June 10, 2009, 06:43:15 PM »

I'm sorry, px, I wasn't meaning to be as critical as you're making the comment out to be.  I just find the idea that this map is an especially good predictive, or even cross-sectional analysis, to be misfounded.  Even if we were assuming that approval ratings are strongly correlated (which they are sorta), this ignores:

1. That some outfits treat "fair" as disapproval, while people often think of "fair" as "OK."

2. Time.

3. Differences in pollster quality.

4. Differences in push levels.

It's not a bad effort, it's just not anything to base an electoral narrative on.  pbrowser deserves credit for compiling this all, but the extrapolations being made are unfounded.

I prefer a poll to an extrapolation. I make those only in the absence of a poll. Example: does anyone have any cause to believe that the Democrats won't win Vermont, Maine, Maryland, DC, and Hawaii by large margins? Likewise on the other side on Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, or the 3rd Congressional District of Nebraska? The troublemakers are the not-so-obvious ones not yet polled: Montana, North Dakota, NE-01 (eastern Nebraska other than Greater Omaha), and Mississippi.  I could use gray for states not yet polled, but that loses much common-sense data that no approval poll yet shows (Maryland won't be voting for any Republican, and Idaho won't vote for Obama). The extrapolations that I show imply a carryover from States politically similar to a state in question (Mississippi somewhat intermediate between Alabama and Arkansas, Montana and North Dakota to South Dakota. 

Extrapolations are always risky. I'd rather have polls.  By 2012 I will leave this effort to people who better know what they are doing than I do.
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Alcon
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« Reply #1051 on: June 10, 2009, 06:45:20 PM »

I also much prefer polls to "extrapolations" (I'm not sure what we'd be extrapolating if not polls?).  My point is that you're comparing un-alike polls to each other, and then making a theoretical extrapolation of electoral returns based on that.  It's a perfectly fair effort if you don't want to go to the trouble of developing an algorithm to adjust for the passage of time, or a way of managing polls that ask different questions than "strongly approve"/"approve"/"somewhat approve"/whatever.  But, as it stands, this information is poisoned by a number of variables.
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Vepres
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« Reply #1052 on: June 10, 2009, 06:47:32 PM »

I honestly don't understand why everyone is giving pbrower such a hard time.  I don't think he ever claimed that THIS is what will happen in 2012.  His maps are clearly based on numbers and the only numbers we have right now are approval/favorability ratings.  There are of course many factors they cannot measure, but they're fun to look at.  I'm sure that if/when Obama's approval ratings drop, pbrower's map will become more red and you will all be happy.

I qualify my statements, and I show my methods. I suggest my prediction as "likely results if nothing really changes". Much WILL change by November 2012 -- most particularly that we will have no "Generic Republican" nominated for President.

This model does not allow someone to say such things as "when Oregonians get tired of high taxes or when the auto industry blows up on Obama, then Oregon, Michigan, and Ohio will be easy pickings for any Republican" before such happens. Likewise it does not allow one to say that  "when poor whites and poor blacks recognize shared interests in economics, then they will vote alike -- for Obama".  If "tax revolts" become successful in some states  in the so-called Blue Firewall or if the American auto industry implodes, then Obama will be in political trouble, as shown in Obama having approval ratings in the forties or thirties in such states. Likewise if white poor people and black poor people in the South find common cause in struggles against shared exploiters and oppressors, Obama could win a raft of states that he didn't win in 2008, and that would show in approval ratings in the sixties or higher.

My map is modeled, such as it is, on models not in use (Electoralvote.com, 538.com, 270 to win) since the 2008 election. I respect those models. Am I completely justified in assuming that a 52% approval rating suggests a likely win? Hardly. People who approve of an incumbent President are likely to vote for him; those who don't generally vote for someone else. That's before I can account for the personality of someone who will comprise half the attention of the Presidential campaign of 2012 -- the Republican half.  

Not until we have specific polls involving specific candidates in specific states will we have a really good idea of how Election 2012 will be going. We will have heard the rhetoric at the Democratic and Republican national conventions. We will see the campaign ads.

My system lets nobody count chickens before they hatch; it shows where the eggs are and it might not even be able to tell whether the eggs are from hens or from snakes. They can show statewide trends (in case anyone still needs to be educated on this matter, the States decide who becomes or remains President, and voters don't).

Let me just add that this is if the election were today against a generic Republican. Neither is going to happen. Likely, the Republicans will nominate somebody significantly better or significantly worse than a "generic Republican".

Also remember that Obama hasn't tackled large divisive issues yet such as healthcare, immigration reform, and cap-and-trade. Thus, the majority of moderates (~40% of the population) combined with the majority of liberals (~25% of the population) make up his approvals. Until he does something that will alienate independents and moderate Republicans and Democrats, expect his approvals to remain in the upper fifties. Thus making the map much more Democratic than it will most likely be on election day.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #1053 on: June 10, 2009, 08:44:16 PM »

So Obama's approval rating debating? Being a republican I hope it goes down, but not to the point where he puts the country in the sh**tter

He's doing that with good approval ratings or not.
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« Reply #1054 on: June 10, 2009, 10:03:46 PM »






Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more


See? The system works. Even if I split the "not sure" 50/50 (which may be charitable for Obama), WV is on the line between "medium" and "hard". In the event of a tossup between such categories I use the 2008 vote to decide -- and it decides that Obama would lose by at least 10% in West Virginia. 

Now that I think of it, that criterion allows me to distinguish Nebraska as a likely win for the GOP nominee and Colorado as a likely win, however marginal, for Obama.

I fixed it, gave Colorado 10 electoral votes. 

With an approval rating that Obama has in CO, I would clearly make Colorado as tossup or even 5% for the GOP.  His popularity is not going to last forever in CO.  Another reason is people are already getting sick of the democrat governor that we have and his job approval.


Since when did Colorado have 10 EVs? If you mean in 2012, I'm not sure it will gain any then.
That is for 2012, Colorado should have 10 electroal votes by then or maybe 11, who knows for sure.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1055 on: June 10, 2009, 10:17:58 PM »






Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more


See? The system works. Even if I split the "not sure" 50/50 (which may be charitable for Obama), WV is on the line between "medium" and "hard". In the event of a tossup between such categories I use the 2008 vote to decide -- and it decides that Obama would lose by at least 10% in West Virginia. 

Now that I think of it, that criterion allows me to distinguish Nebraska as a likely win for the GOP nominee and Colorado as a likely win, however marginal, for Obama.

I fixed it, gave Colorado 10 electoral votes. 

I'm sticking with the 2008 electoral vote until the Census establishes the apportionment of Representatives, and I restore Colorado to a 'weak hold'.

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Since when did Colorado have 10 EVs? If you mean in 2012, I'm not sure it will gain any then.
That is for 2012, Colorado should have 10 electroal votes by then or maybe 11, who knows for sure.

This model does not adjust for the unpopularity of a Governor because such is a different question.
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« Reply #1056 on: June 10, 2009, 11:04:32 PM »

Doesn't make much sense.  Georgia and South Carolina should be pink then.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1057 on: June 11, 2009, 06:31:54 AM »

North Carolina (Civitas Institute)Sad

66% Approve
28% Disapprove

The study of 600 registered voters was conducted May 18-21, 2009 by Tel Opinion Research of Alexandria, Virginia.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina. For purposes of this study, voters we interviewed had to have voted in either the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections or were newly registered voters since 2008.

http://www.jwpcivitasinstitute.org/media/poll-results/may-2009-poll-results
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Rowan
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« Reply #1058 on: June 11, 2009, 06:33:55 AM »

So PPP has him at 51% there, but Civitas at 66%? I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's closer to the 51% than the 66%.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1059 on: June 11, 2009, 06:39:57 AM »

So PPP has him at 51% there, but Civitas at 66%? I'm going to go out on a limb and say it's closer to the 51% than the 66%.

The guys from PPP note that because of their automated polls people are more likely to give negative opinions on politicians, rather than to real people which Civitas is using.

I think 51% is slightly too low and 66% way too high (joke poll).

55% seems to be right for NC at the moment.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #1060 on: June 11, 2009, 06:41:53 AM »






Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more


See? The system works. Even if I split the "not sure" 50/50 (which may be charitable for Obama), WV is on the line between "medium" and "hard". In the event of a tossup between such categories I use the 2008 vote to decide -- and it decides that Obama would lose by at least 10% in West Virginia. 

Now that I think of it, that criterion allows me to distinguish Nebraska as a likely win for the GOP nominee and Colorado as a likely win, however marginal, for Obama.

I fixed it, gave Colorado 10 electoral votes. 

With an approval rating that Obama has in CO, I would clearly make Colorado as tossup or even 5% for the GOP.  His popularity is not going to last forever in CO.  Another reason is people are already getting sick of the democrat governor that we have and his job approval.


Since when did Colorado have 10 EVs? If you mean in 2012, I'm not sure it will gain any then.
That is for 2012, Colorado should have 10 electroal votes by then or maybe 11, who knows for sure.
LOL. Colorado will likely remain at 9 EVs.
And even if it doesn't, your fix changes NONE of the other states? That's not correct. Your map now has 539 EVs.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1061 on: June 11, 2009, 08:56:39 AM »

Virginia (Rasmussen)Sad

52% Approve
46% Disapprove

(Tim Kaine)

62% Approve
35% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1062 on: June 11, 2009, 10:27:07 AM »

Virginia (Rasmussen)Sad

52% Approve
46% Disapprove

(Tim Kaine)

62% Approve
35% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted by Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2009/virginia/election_2009_virginia_governor_election

If we reverse the numbers (62% Obama, 52% Kaine), that should be more believable.
Otherwise Tim Kaine might want to share his secret with the other governors whose favorables are hard hit by the recession.
And wasn't everyone saying that Virginians were disatisfied with his decision to become DNC Chair?
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Zarn
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« Reply #1063 on: June 11, 2009, 10:54:40 AM »

You can't switch results. That's not how it works.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1064 on: June 11, 2009, 01:38:49 PM »

Virginia support for Obama cut back a bit:






Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins 5-9%
GOP wins up to 5%
tossup
Obama wins up to 5%
Obama wins 5-9%
Obama wins 10% or more
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Zarn
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« Reply #1065 on: June 11, 2009, 02:16:55 PM »

Considering Obama's approvals are mediocre, that isn't happening.
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #1066 on: June 11, 2009, 02:52:58 PM »

Fox News Poll

Obama Approval/Disapproval

Overall: 63%/31%

Democrats 88%/8%

Republicans: 28%/62%

Independents: 66%/26%

Biden Approval/Disapproval

Overall: 49%/32$

Democrats: 75%/13%

Republicans: 18%/59%

Independents: 48%/27%

Economy getting better/getting worse/staying the same

Overall: 40%/42%/16%

Democrats: 50%/28%/19%

Republicans: 27%/57%/14%

Independents: 41%/41%/16%

 
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1067 on: June 11, 2009, 04:26:23 PM »

Why all the Republican hate towards Biden?
Ok, he's made some gaffes, but he hasn't been especially partisan and I haven't heard any Republican official complain about him and his role (like the Dems did with Cheney).
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Devilman88
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« Reply #1068 on: June 11, 2009, 05:11:31 PM »

Ok, what I did was took the national average approval rating and subtracted it from the approval rating of the said state. For Example:

Poll was taken on Feb 6, 2009 for a said state: On that date Obama had a 62% approval rating. So lets say the poll showed said state had a 68% approval rating of Obama. I took 68 - 62= 6. So, that state polled 6% higher then the national average on Obama's approval ratings.

Key is:
Dark Red: 10% higher
Medium Red: 7-9% higher
Light Red: 4-6 higher
Green: Any were from 3% higher to 3% lower
Light Blue: 4-6% lower
Medium Blue: 7-9% lower
Dark Blue: 10% or below


Feb 2009



March 2009


April 2009


May 2009
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Badger
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« Reply #1069 on: June 11, 2009, 05:41:56 PM »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.
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Badger
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« Reply #1070 on: June 11, 2009, 05:44:22 PM »

I honestly don't understand why everyone is giving pbrower such a hard time.  I don't think he ever claimed that THIS is what will happen in 2012.  His maps are clearly based on numbers and the only numbers we have right now are approval/favorability ratings.  There are of course many factors they cannot measure, but they're fun to look at.  I'm sure that if/when Obama's approval ratings drop, pbrower's map will become more red and you will all be happy.
What Blago said. I think that anyone trying to spin these ratings into anything more than an estimate of what would happen if the presidential election were held today is overacting.
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Rowan
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« Reply #1071 on: June 11, 2009, 05:49:28 PM »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.

Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.
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Badger
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« Reply #1072 on: June 11, 2009, 05:51:25 PM »

I also much prefer polls to "extrapolations" (I'm not sure what we'd be extrapolating if not polls?).  My point is that you're comparing un-alike polls to each other, and then making a theoretical extrapolation of electoral returns based on that.  It's a perfectly fair effort if you don't want to go to the trouble of developing an algorithm to adjust for the passage of time, or a way of managing polls that ask different questions than "strongly approve"/"approve"/"somewhat approve"/whatever.  But, as it stands, this information is poisoned by a number of variables.
True, but isn't this argument just as applicable to polls taken in Oct. 2012 as those taken today? Again, I don't think PB2 is trying to predict the 2012 race so much as show where Obama's popularity is today on a state by state basis. Measuring it in terms of 2012 electoral maps makes sense only because we're such political junkies grubbing poll results to be displayed on pretty map graphics. (Nice job, BTW).
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Badger
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« Reply #1073 on: June 11, 2009, 06:06:27 PM »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.

Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.
His 2008 vote share in VA was 52.63%. Nice try.

You'll pull amuscle stretching like that.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1074 on: June 11, 2009, 07:01:36 PM »

I love that Obama will win VA by 10 points or more. Dude, your "system" sucks.
Uh, he won by 6.3 points only several months ago. So you're incredulous about Obama improving by at least 3.7 points nationally, let alone in one of the most aggressively Democratic shifting states?

I don't think it's his analysis that sucks here.


Hmm, his approval rating there is 52%, lower than his 2008 vote total. So yeah, I have a hard time believing it.


After a 52% approval rating for Obama in Virginia, I cut the estimate down from a 10% margin to a 5% margin. That is the line, and does that put Virginia in the "bare" or "weak" category? The 2008 election makes the decision. Such is my judgment, as I am in no position to judge a poll.
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