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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031224 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #9450 on: February 23, 2012, 10:43:26 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, u.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, u.

Interesting jump in "Strongly Approved."  Bad sample, real trend?  Stay tuned.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9451 on: February 23, 2012, 02:03:23 pm »


Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  45%, u

Disapprove:  48%, u

At 45% approval on Gallup, Obama is lower at this close in time than any re-elected president since Truman; Gallup didn't poll in February 1948.

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King
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« Reply #9452 on: February 23, 2012, 04:26:37 pm »

45 percent is an all-time low?  Presidents are popular in Feb I guess.
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« Reply #9453 on: February 23, 2012, 04:27:27 pm »

It's probably been discussed before but anyone want to comment on why Gallup seems like the outlier as of late?
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J. J.
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« Reply #9454 on: February 23, 2012, 05:42:29 pm »

45 percent is an all-time low?  Presidents are popular in Feb I guess.

Re-elected president, possibly excepting Truman.  GHWB was at 39%.  Ford was at 46%.  Carter was peaking at between 55-53%.  LBJ was at 58% in February, 1968, prior to dropping out.

Right now, Obama is below GWB at any point in the latter's first term.
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King
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« Reply #9455 on: February 23, 2012, 06:11:47 pm »

45 percent is an all-time low?  Presidents are popular in Feb I guess.

Re-elected president, possibly excepting Truman.  GHWB was at 39%.  Ford was at 46%.  Carter was peaking at between 55-53%.  LBJ was at 58% in February, 1968, prior to dropping out.

Right now, Obama is below GWB at any point in the latter's first term.

39% = 300 EV landslide
46% = narrow loss
55% = 400 EV landslide
58% = primaried

I believe this was what they call in the stats world "no correlation exists."
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J. J.
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« Reply #9456 on: February 23, 2012, 07:00:04 pm »

45 percent is an all-time low?  Presidents are popular in Feb I guess.

Re-elected president, possibly excepting Truman.  GHWB was at 39%.  Ford was at 46%.  Carter was peaking at between 55-53%.  LBJ was at 58% in February, 1968, prior to dropping out.

Right now, Obama is below GWB at any point in the latter's first term.

39% = 300 EV landslide
46% = narrow loss
55% = 400 EV landslide
58% = primaried

I believe this was what they call in the stats world "no correlation exists."

No, but there is a "point of no return."  At this point, it appears to be in the mid-40's.

LBJ is interesting; he might have been relected in 1968 had he been willing to fight for it.
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King
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« Reply #9457 on: February 24, 2012, 12:48:50 am »

No, but there is a "point of no return."  At this point, it appears to be in the mid-40's.

What makes it appear to be that?
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J. J.
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« Reply #9458 on: February 24, 2012, 01:07:29 am »

No, but there is a "point of no return."  At this point, it appears to be in the mid-40's.

What makes it appear to be that?

Nobody has been reelected with scores below a certain point (in the mid 40's) on Gallup.
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King
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« Reply #9459 on: February 24, 2012, 03:58:21 am »

No, but there is a "point of no return."  At this point, it appears to be in the mid-40's.

What makes it appear to be that?

Nobody has been reelected with scores below a certain point (in the mid 40's) on Gallup.

Considering there's only one President to ever be below Mid-40s in February in a Gallup poll (George H.W. Bush) and he was in a unique 3 man race for re-election, that's hardly a trend.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9460 on: February 24, 2012, 09:26:25 am »

No, but there is a "point of no return."  At this point, it appears to be in the mid-40's.

What makes it appear to be that?

Nobody has been reelected with scores below a certain point (in the mid 40's) on Gallup.

Considering there's only one President to ever be below Mid-40s in February in a Gallup poll (George H.W. Bush) and he was in a unique 3 man race for re-election, that's hardly a trend.

I don't think it was a three man race in February 1992.  He was considering it late in the month:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Perot_presidential_campaign,_1992

There is also the point made several months ago about the low point within the last 18 and 12 months prior to the election.  It is where an incumbent bottoms out on Gallup.  The only one who didn't was Truman.  Ford almost survived with a 39% low 11 months out.

I am saying that, historically, Obama's numbers are not good.  He might be at the point of no return, but we'll still have to watch, because it is close to the number.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9461 on: February 24, 2012, 09:38:39 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, -1.

Disapprove 50%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, u.

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« Reply #9462 on: February 24, 2012, 01:21:27 pm »

No, but there is a "point of no return."  At this point, it appears to be in the mid-40's.

What makes it appear to be that?

Nobody has been reelected with scores below a certain point (in the mid 40's) on Gallup.

Considering there's only one President to ever be below Mid-40s in February in a Gallup poll (George H.W. Bush) and he was in a unique 3 man race for re-election, that's hardly a trend.

I don't think it was a three man race in February 1992.  He was considering it late in the month:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ross_Perot_presidential_campaign,_1992

There is also the point made several months ago about the low point within the last 18 and 12 months prior to the election.  It is where an incumbent bottoms out on Gallup.  The only one who didn't was Truman.  Ford almost survived with a 39% low 11 months out.

I am saying that, historically, Obama's numbers are not good.  He might be at the point of no return, but we'll still have to watch, because it is close to the number.

Gallup is sensitive enough that this would be a nearly meaningless statement even with a Republican field that was something other than a travesty and abortion of decent conservative politics.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9463 on: February 24, 2012, 02:56:21 pm »


Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  45%, u

Disapprove:  47%, +1




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J. J.
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« Reply #9464 on: February 24, 2012, 03:03:43 pm »



Gallup is sensitive enough that this would be a nearly meaningless statement even with a Republican field that was something other than a travesty and abortion of decent conservative politics.

Actually, I'm using the weekly numbers, which are fairly stable.  They have shown only a 4 point range from 12/1/11 until 2/19/12.
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Miliband: The Art of the Comeback
Nathan
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« Reply #9465 on: February 24, 2012, 03:16:44 pm »



Gallup is sensitive enough that this would be a nearly meaningless statement even with a Republican field that was something other than a travesty and abortion of decent conservative politics.

Actually, I'm using the weekly numbers, which are fairly stable.  They have shown only a 4 point range from 12/1/11 until 2/19/12.

I've also been finding it interesting how it seems like at some point over the past year or so Gallup just kind of drifted to the generally low end in terms of the President's approval ratings. I might be misremembering but it seemed like it used to be consistently fairly bullish on him.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9466 on: February 24, 2012, 03:49:07 pm »




I've also been finding it interesting how it seems like at some point over the past year or so Gallup just kind of drifted to the generally low end in terms of the President's approval ratings. I might be misremembering but it seemed like it used to be consistently fairly bullish on him.

It hit lows in the summer and they went into the fall, so there has been some improvement. 

I marked the "turn" in September/early October (my "von Kluck analogy").  That was not too unusual.  It was Carter's low point; Obama was 11% ahead of Carter.  Both Bushes showed a slide over the third year summer/fall.

Obama is clearly off his lows, but so far, not nearly enough. 

The good news for Obama, however, is that, excepting GWB, his low point was higher than everyone back to Ford, at this point.  The bad news is that GHWB experienced his low in the spring/summer of 1992, as did GWB.  GWB's "low" was one point higher than Obama's current number.

Obama's numbers are not great currently, but before you can write him off, he'll have to slide down some more.  At this point, he's not sliding.
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J. J.
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« Reply #9467 on: February 25, 2012, 10:00:03 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -2.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  40%, u.

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J. J.
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« Reply #9468 on: February 25, 2012, 04:43:45 pm »



Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  45%, u

Disapprove:  46%, -1


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J. J.
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« Reply #9469 on: February 26, 2012, 09:54:16 am »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  41%, +1.

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J. J.
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« Reply #9470 on: February 26, 2012, 06:17:59 pm »




Gallup Daily:  http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Approve:  44%, -1

Disapprove:  46%, u

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J. J.
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« Reply #9471 on: February 27, 2012, 09:58:30 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  42%, +1.


It could be a bad anti-Obama sample.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #9472 on: February 27, 2012, 10:00:21 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -1.

Disapprove 53%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at  42%, +1.


It could be a bad anti-Obama sample.

And, it could be high gas prices. The sample was very similiar to the sample that rolled off.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9473 on: February 27, 2012, 10:30:44 am »

And the Politico/Tarrance/Lake poll is the complete opposite:

53% Approve
45% Disapprove

Among likely voters.

Maybe Rasmussen has a bad sample inside, and well Gallup is just Gallup - flawed and outdated like the GOP.
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Nathan
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« Reply #9474 on: February 27, 2012, 10:32:32 am »

I tend to just mentally resolve all of these approval rating bounces to 'tie' these days.
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