The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8050 on: June 08, 2011, 12:16:29 PM »

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Jesse Ventura would take more votes from President Obama than from Mitt Romney. This state might not be as overwhelmingly D as states like Vermont and Rhode Island , but it is probably as stable as any State. I figure that it is going to give about 50% of the vote to a Democratic nominee in a Republican landslide for the Presidency (1984) or about 57% to the Democratic landslide for the Presidency in which the Democrat wins 60% of the vote.    

According to the PPP crosstabs, Ventura would take more votes from Romney than from Obama.

Ventura gets 8% of Democrats, 15% Republicans and 25% Independents.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8051 on: June 08, 2011, 12:56:09 PM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 51, +1.

Disapprove 48%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, +1.

After a week, only a slight drop in Rasmussen.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8052 on: June 08, 2011, 11:50:12 PM »

A few new national polls are out:

Reuters/Ipsos: 50-45

FOX News: 48-43

CBS News: 48-43

CNN News: 48-48

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
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J. J.
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« Reply #8053 on: June 09, 2011, 08:51:51 AM »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, -2.

Disapprove 50%, +2.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -1.

For all the complaining about Rasmussen, it is remarkably stable.

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krazen1211
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« Reply #8054 on: June 09, 2011, 09:57:00 AM »

Obama still heavily underwater in Pennsylvania.

http://grassrootspa.com/blogcore/pdf/Toplines-Media-Statewide-June2011.pdf

President Obama’s job approval rating in Pennsylvania is a negative 48% to 41% (disapprove to approve), which reflects an even further decline in the percentage of those who approve of his job performance when compared with his 45% job approval score from our March Statewide Omnibus Poll.

When asked if they think President Obama deserves reelection, 43% say he has done his job well enough to deserve reelection, while 50% say it is time to give a new person a chance.



Of course he won with a very odd coalition. Kerry would have lost if he performed at Obama levels in southwest PA.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #8055 on: June 09, 2011, 10:16:25 AM »

Obama still heavily underwater in Pennsylvania.

http://grassrootspa.com/blogcore/pdf/Toplines-Media-Statewide-June2011.pdf

President Obama’s job approval rating in Pennsylvania is a negative 48% to 41% (disapprove to approve), which reflects an even further decline in the percentage of those who approve of his job performance when compared with his 45% job approval score from our March Statewide Omnibus Poll.

When asked if they think President Obama deserves reelection, 43% say he has done his job well enough to deserve reelection, while 50% say it is time to give a new person a chance.



Of course he won with a very odd coalition. Kerry would have lost if he performed at Obama levels in southwest PA.

I don't know if I buy this. Didn't Pennsylvania vote against George W Bush both times?
Pennsylvania hasn't voted Republican since 1988. However, I wouldn't doubt this poll, as polling in Pennsylvania has consistently shown Obama with low approvals. I find it quite odd his approvals are lower in Pennsylvania than Ohio or North Carolina.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8056 on: June 09, 2011, 10:38:47 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2011, 10:43:59 AM by krazen1211 »

Obama still heavily underwater in Pennsylvania.

http://grassrootspa.com/blogcore/pdf/Toplines-Media-Statewide-June2011.pdf

President Obama’s job approval rating in Pennsylvania is a negative 48% to 41% (disapprove to approve), which reflects an even further decline in the percentage of those who approve of his job performance when compared with his 45% job approval score from our March Statewide Omnibus Poll.

When asked if they think President Obama deserves reelection, 43% say he has done his job well enough to deserve reelection, while 50% say it is time to give a new person a chance.



Of course he won with a very odd coalition. Kerry would have lost if he performed at Obama levels in southwest PA.

I don't know if I buy this. Didn't Pennsylvania vote against George W Bush both times?

Barely, yeah. But Kerry did much better in SW PA than Obama did. That was compensated for by Obama doing much better in SE PA than Kerry did. The problem apparently is that the latter is sliding back to the GOP while the former is not sliding back to the Democrats. At least not this Democrat.

Not the first poll either.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=134324.0
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8057 on: June 09, 2011, 11:38:14 AM »

Obama still heavily underwater in Pennsylvania.

http://grassrootspa.com/blogcore/pdf/Toplines-Media-Statewide-June2011.pdf

President Obama’s job approval rating in Pennsylvania is a negative 48% to 41% (disapprove to approve), which reflects an even further decline in the percentage of those who approve of his job performance when compared with his 45% job approval score from our March Statewide Omnibus Poll.

When asked if they think President Obama deserves reelection, 43% say he has done his job well enough to deserve reelection, while 50% say it is time to give a new person a chance.



Of course he won with a very odd coalition. Kerry would have lost if he performed at Obama levels in southwest PA.

That would explain much. Aside from greater Pittsburgh, southwestern Pennsylvania is demographically much like West Virginia, a state that Barack Obama lost badly for a Democrat. He did extremely well in the suburban areas of Philadelphia in 2008, drawing away some traditional Republican voters who until then reliably voted with their bosses on such issues as taxes and regulation.

A Republican nominee can win this state if he can establish a message of hope based upon trust in corporate power and the (alleged) beneficence of elites, which was demonstrated in the election of Pat Toomey as Senator in 2010 -- Pat Toomey, former head of the Club for Growth, and about as pure a corporatist as there is.

Economic desperation can lead people to vote for a very flawed savior. A drowning man grasps at a viper.

   
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8058 on: June 09, 2011, 01:29:38 PM »

That would explain much. Aside from greater Pittsburgh, southwestern Pennsylvania is demographically much like West Virginia, a state that Barack Obama lost badly for a Democrat. He did extremely well in the suburban areas of Philadelphia in 2008, drawing away some traditional Republican voters who until then reliably voted with their bosses on such issues as taxes and regulation.

A Republican nominee can win this state if he can establish a message of hope based upon trust in corporate power and the (alleged) beneficence of elites, which was demonstrated in the election of Pat Toomey as Senator in 2010 -- Pat Toomey, former head of the Club for Growth, and about as pure a corporatist as there is.

Economic desperation can lead people to vote for a very flawed savior. A drowning man grasps at a viper.
   

The conclusion isn't supported by the facts. Toomey held a Congressional seat in the Lehigh Valley that Kerry won by a couple hundred votes long before today's economic desperation.

These people simply prefer a socially moderate Republican, or even a conservative who isn't a culture warrior, to a Democrat. Sestak actually won Philadelphia by more votes than Casey did in 2006 and did well enough in Philadelphia to win statewide; if he didn't get demolished elsewhere.
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« Reply #8059 on: June 09, 2011, 06:51:31 PM »

If Obama doesn't win PA, which is looking ever likely, I don't think he'll win re-election. Nice to see my boy, Mitt, pull level with him in the overall polls too (although still quite early).
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« Reply #8060 on: June 09, 2011, 07:27:34 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2011, 07:29:29 PM by Icefire9 »

If Obama doesn't win PA, which is looking ever likely, I don't think he'll win re-election. Nice to see my boy, Mitt, pull level with him in the overall polls too (although still quite early).



If Pensylvania is swinging Republican, Obama could compensate elsewhere.  
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« Reply #8061 on: June 09, 2011, 08:22:40 PM »
« Edited: June 09, 2011, 08:25:58 PM by Mitt Romney's Hair »

If Obama doesn't win PA, which is looking ever likely, I don't think he'll win re-election. Nice to see my boy, Mitt, pull level with him in the overall polls too (although still quite early).



If Pensylvania is swinging Republican, Obama could compensate elsewhere.  


Good luck: http://articles.philly.com/2011-05-15/news/29545905_1_independent-voters-pennsylvania-poll-pennsylvania-voters

Also, NC? VA? Come on now.

PS: Can someone please tell me why we inverse the colors on this forum? It's beyond irritating.
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« Reply #8062 on: June 09, 2011, 09:02:52 PM »

Obama has a legitamate shot at both Virginia and North Carolina.  He consistantly leads all Republicans in matchups.  While its still a long way from election day, Obama may be stronger in North Carolina and Virginia than in Pennsylvania.

NC: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_0523.pdf

VA: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_0510424.pdf
      http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_050042011_MON.html

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This apparently is the article's rational, Obama doesn't win Ohio or Florida in my scenario.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8063 on: June 09, 2011, 09:09:28 PM »

If Obama doesn't win PA, which is looking ever likely, I don't think he'll win re-election. Nice to see my boy, Mitt, pull level with him in the overall polls too (although still quite early).



If Pensylvania is swinging Republican, Obama could compensate elsewhere.  


Good luck: http://articles.philly.com/2011-05-15/news/29545905_1_independent-voters-pennsylvania-poll-pennsylvania-voters

Also, NC? VA? Come on now.

PS: Can someone please tell me why we inverse the colors on this forum? It's beyond irritating.

1. The polls that showed President Obama holding an approval rating in the low forties in Pennsylvania came when he was doing badly in polls nationwide. Since then, Osama bin Laden has met the Great Satan. There are now May polls for Pennsylvania, but those for some neighboring (New York and Ohio) and near-neighboring (Virginia) states have shown the President with much higher approval ratings. The last one for New York State showed the President with an approval rating in the low sixties. Pennsylvania is about 10% less Democratic than New York,  so...I figure that the April polls for Pennsylvania, if right at the time, are dated. The most recent polls for Presidential approval in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, and North Carolina are higher. But those are more recent than the latest polls for Pennsylvania.  

2. Pennsylvania gets polled often because it is large, because it is critical, and because it has no obvious analogue.  If you should see an approval rating of 52% for Pennsylvania, then don't be surprised.  

3.  If you notice my maps I show Pennsylvania winnable by a Republican nominee -- but only by Mitt Romney. Even at the low point, everyone else -- Mike Huckabee was then in the mix -- was projected to lose to President Obama -- loses.

4. Pennsylvania has a relatively old population. Paul Ryan laid an egg with older voters with his proposal to privatize Medicare and Medicaid. That has yet to show.
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« Reply #8064 on: June 09, 2011, 09:16:19 PM »

If Obama doesn't win PA, which is looking ever likely, I don't think he'll win re-election. Nice to see my boy, Mitt, pull level with him in the overall polls too (although still quite early).



If Pensylvania is swinging Republican, Obama could compensate elsewhere.  


Good luck: http://articles.philly.com/2011-05-15/news/29545905_1_independent-voters-pennsylvania-poll-pennsylvania-voters

Also, NC? VA? Come on now.

PS: Can someone please tell me why we inverse the colors on this forum? It's beyond irritating.

1. The polls that showed President Obama holding an approval rating in the low forties in Pennsylvania came when he was doing badly in polls nationwide. Since then, Osama bin Laden has met the Great Satan. There are now May polls for Pennsylvania, but those for some neighboring (New York and Ohio) and near-neighboring (Virginia) states have shown the President with much higher approval ratings. The last one for New York State showed the President with an approval rating in the low sixties. Pennsylvania is about 10% less Democratic than New York,  so...I figure that the April polls for Pennsylvania, if right at the time, are dated. The most recent polls for Presidential approval in Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, and North Carolina are higher. But those are more recent than the latest polls for Pennsylvania.  

2. Pennsylvania gets polled often because it is large, because it is critical, and because it has no obvious analogue.  If you should see an approval rating of 52% for Pennsylvania, then don't be surprised.  

3.  If you notice my maps I show Pennsylvania winnable by a Republican nominee -- but only by Mitt Romney. Even at the low point, everyone else -- Mike Huckabee was then in the mix -- was projected to lose to President Obama -- loses.

4. Pennsylvania has a relatively old population. Paul Ryan laid an egg with older voters with his proposal to privatize Medicare and Medicaid. That has yet to show.

No offense PBrower, but your map is almost impossible to read. Color coded maps are suppose to make things easier. There's way too many colors on yours, it's a headache. I simply ignore it for that reason. I applaud your effort, but you need to make it clearer and easier to read.....
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8065 on: June 10, 2011, 12:18:56 AM »

It's not my map.

It's the size that makes them difficult to read.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8066 on: June 10, 2011, 08:49:27 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47, -3.

Disapprove 53%, +4.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, +3.

Probably a bad sample, but it now looks like a drop across the board.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8067 on: June 10, 2011, 08:51:01 AM »

a 7% swing in a day? and probably a bad sample? lol
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J. J.
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« Reply #8068 on: June 10, 2011, 10:21:09 AM »

a 7% swing in a day? and probably a bad sample? lol

Or a bad sample dropped out.

The "swing" is basically 3-3.5 points, so it is not unusually dramatic (and in the MOE).  The other polls are showing a drop, however.  The economic news is not particularly good, which could be a cause.

All that said, I'd rather wait to Monday to see if it is still there.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #8069 on: June 10, 2011, 10:44:45 AM »

If Obama doesn't win PA, which is looking ever likely, I don't think he'll win re-election. Nice to see my boy, Mitt, pull level with him in the overall polls too (although still quite early).



If Pensylvania is swinging Republican, Obama could compensate elsewhere.  


That's a likely outcome I think. NC was R+1 or so in the 2010 congressional elections, statewide, and should still be more Republican than the nation as a whole in 2012.

A Republican will need to win about 67% of NC whites. McCain got 64%
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8070 on: June 10, 2011, 10:54:31 AM »
« Edited: June 10, 2011, 11:04:37 AM by pbrower2a »

The state in which Paul Revere took his famous ride in 1775 checks in:

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What can anyone expect in one of the two states, the other Minnesota, that split as highest (winner) and second-highest (loser) for  McGovern in 1972 and Mondale in 1984?


Current map:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 43
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  






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« Reply #8071 on: June 10, 2011, 01:01:28 PM »

He's also back underwater in Gallup too, down to 45-46

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx

Although Gallup's been jumping around a lot lately, so he might bounce back up to 50-40 tomorrow for all I know.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8072 on: June 10, 2011, 01:43:40 PM »

Of greater interest is the state first to secede in 1860 (but a plurality in the state now is glad that the North won the Civil War, according to a miscellaneous poll by PPP:

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Current map:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 43
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 43
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  







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« Reply #8073 on: June 10, 2011, 01:48:02 PM »

I think you might be adding too much to Obama.  That map is Generic R, that's Bachmann.  What would the map look like if you only added half as much as you currently do to incumbent advantages?
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« Reply #8074 on: June 10, 2011, 02:56:56 PM »

I think you might be adding too much to Obama.  That map is Generic R, that's Bachmann.  What would the map look like if you only added half as much as you currently do to incumbent advantages?

The lower map shows matchups, and in general those show my estimates justified. "Generic Republican" is relevant this year because the Republican Party has no candidate analogous to Ronald Reagan who has an adequately-wide appeal across a cross-section of America. "Generic Republican" defeats a Democratic incumbent President who has an approval rating just below 50% but that candidate  as a rule goes into hibernation as the first primaries and caucuses of the Presidential election begin.  It would take a Ronald Reagan to defeat President Obama now... but all in all, I think that Barack Obama has political skills closer to those of Ronald Reagan than does anyone who followed the Gipper.

The President's approval is underwater in Ohio and Georgia, yet he apparently wins against everyone there, as shown in matchups. The lower map shows Romney as the only possible winner against President Obama in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (those polls are dated!) -- but that hardly contradicts my "add 6%" rule for states in which the President's approval rating is between 40% and 45%. That would seem to illustrate the relevance of the rule. As for Arizona, it is possible for an incumbent Senator or Governor to begin campaign season and gain less than 4% in vote share from an early approval rating. Winning the electoral votes of a State is much like running a Gubernatorial or Senatorial election... except that the Presidential nominee knows well enough to waste time or advertising money on States in which he has no chance (this time Oklahoma would be a prime example) or in sure things (New York is obvious this time). 

If anything, I am diluting the "add 6% rule" for values of approval above 46%. An incumbent Governor or Senator doesn't have much choice in what race to content; an incumbent President can pick and choose. Take a good look at Arizona: it has an open Senate seat. President Obama can lose the state's electoral votes yet score a huge win in the state -- if he can help the Democrat win that seat. If the President seems to be ahead in Michigan 53-47 and in a virtual tie in Ohio at 49-49, then where will he appear and where will his ad campaign buy more time?

The President is now governing; he isn't electioneering. That is for the best. We don't elect our politicians to simply run for re-election. We make public office attractive enough as the ultimate ego trip that those who do well enough want to run again. But to get re-elected they must first serve us well enough to seem to deserve re-election. There will be international crises. There will be natural disasters. There will be give-and-take with Congress.

Now for the obvious. The partisan sure-things don't decide the election.  In a two-way race, the worst performers got the following percentages of the vote:

Goldwater, 1964   38.47%
Landon, 1936        36.54%
McGovern, 1972    37.52%
Mondale,   1984    40.56%   
Hoover, 1932        39.65%
Carter, 1980         41.01%
Stevenson, 1956   41.97%

...which is probably close to partisan identification with the party at the time. Independents -- mostly moderates -- decide the election. Those are the most capricious of voters, and they care how the President responds to natural disasters and international crises, and how he relates to people like them. Take a good look at those electoral results for Presidential losers. Those are about how a partisan hack will do against President Obama. 

If you ask me why I mute the incumbency effect for the President, it is because even the most effective Presidents have a ceiling of about 62% of the popular vote. 

Dubya, arguably the worst President that anyone not extremely old could know, got re-elected. If he could be re-elected despite lying to get into a war for profit that had begun to go badly, having little legislative achievement (more than Carter, which isn't saying much) and basically a jobless recovery from the high-tech crash of 2002, then think of what President Obama can do.   
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