|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 09, 2020, 07:13:43 am
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 316 317 318 319 320 [321] 322 323 324 325 326 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031381 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8000 on: May 30, 2011, 03:49:41 pm »

Yeah, the country is going to embrace this beyond mediocre president and he will win by the same amount. Where's that "era of good feelings" you were predicting pbrower?


Sure, he is beyond mediocre, but probably not as you want the term to mean. So far this President has been able to avoid scandals and military or diplomatic blunders. With cooperative majorities in the 111th Congress he has gotten much legislative activity passed. Osama bin Laden is dead without undue complications. The economy hasn't tanked, and in the absence of a speculative bubble (the President may be lucky that it tanked when it did) there is little chance of another economic meltdown.

I already see the GOP having so bungled its message in the 112th Congress that few of its politicians are in position to challenge the President.  In view of some of the extreme and callous positions that the GOP has taken in Congress, the 2010 elections could be a Pyrrhic victory  for the GOP.

A new Era of Good Feeling? The GOP still has the money and corporate power behind it. That said, many elected Republicans are incredibly unpopular. I look at the gap between President Barack Obama and some Republican Governors and approval for Congress as a whole with the Republican majority and Republicans in Congress... there is no good feeling. This isn't the 1820s all over.

People are fussier about politics than they used to be. In view of what Dubya got away with, that is a very good thing. But that said, if the President has 50% approval on Halloween 2012 and Congressional Republicans have approval ratings in the thirties, then guess how that works. If we had another President as incompetent as Dubya, then we would be in big trouble.

I suggest that you check out this page

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

and overlay the approval ratings for Presidents Reagan, Clinton, and Obama. So far the difference between the three is best described as random noise. Reagan and Carter were both re-elected by decisive margins. Why do you expect differently of President Obama?

 
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,501
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8001 on: May 30, 2011, 05:04:52 pm »

Yeah, the country is going to embrace this beyond mediocre president and he will win by the same amount. Where's that "era of good feelings" you were predicting pbrower?



Well, all that matters is that Obama is considered to be a better option than his opponent... and on that front Obama is doing quite well.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,787
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8002 on: May 30, 2011, 11:34:48 pm »

CNN:

54% Approve
45% Disapprove

Interviews with 1,007 adult Americans conducted by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on May 24-26, 2011. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/05/30/rel9d.pdf
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,787
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8003 on: June 01, 2011, 01:00:26 pm »

Rasmussen:

49-50

Gallup:

49-42

Rasmussen (New Jersey, finally)Sad

53-46

(Gov. Christie)

53-44

LOL, Rasmussen = only pollster to give Christie a higher rating than Obama !

Link

New York (Quinnipiac)Sad

60-35

(Gov. Cuomo)

61-18

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1606
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,787
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8004 on: June 01, 2011, 01:07:42 pm »

Rasmussen is too good to be true:

They wanna make us believe that there are currently 35.6% Republicans and 34.0% Democrats among adults, not even RV or LV.

This is what Rasmussen will use as the June benchmark for their daily tracking poll ... Tongue

Not even the 2010 Exit Poll was so skewed in favor of Republicans, it was actually tied (35-35).

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#USH00p1

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/partisan_trends
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8005 on: June 01, 2011, 02:07:00 pm »
« Edited: June 01, 2011, 05:45:10 pm by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac, New York. New York seems pretty quiet these days, but New Yorkers also have the sort of government that they like.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1318.xml?ReleaseID=1606

Polling was completed in May, so it is still lettered "E"

...the euphoria about the whacking of Osama bin Laden is surely past. Yellow-to-tan colors for Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have to look very dated now.

This weekend, PPP will poll Massachusetts and South Carolina.

Current map:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   120
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 54
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   120
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 60
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 43
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  



Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8006 on: June 02, 2011, 11:33:43 am »

For what it is worth:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,787
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8007 on: June 02, 2011, 11:35:36 am »

Not worth a lot, because Rasmussen's likely voter sample is now about 37% GOP and 33% DEM or something like this -> see one of my posts above.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8008 on: June 02, 2011, 12:27:15 pm »

Not worth a lot, because Rasmussen's likely voter sample is now about 37% GOP and 33% DEM or something like this -> see one of my posts above.

Basically an electorate slightly more R than that of 2010. Why does that make about as much sense as expecting the WCTU to start pushing beer?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,787
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8009 on: June 02, 2011, 12:34:17 pm »

Whoah, big Gallup jump today:

53% Approve (+4)
39% Disapprove (-3)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,787
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8010 on: June 02, 2011, 12:38:07 pm »

This is the first time since November 2009 that his disapproval has dropped to below 40%.
Logged
CJK
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 671
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8011 on: June 02, 2011, 12:59:04 pm »

Obama Approval Rating for May 2011 (Gallup):

50% Approve

42% Disapprove

Trends for Comparison:

Carter: 35/51 (May 1979)

Reagan: 44/48 (May 1983)

Bush I: 75/17 (May 1991)

Clinton: 51/42 (May 1995)

Bush II: 66/30 (May 2003)
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,541
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8012 on: June 02, 2011, 01:08:19 pm »

Whoah, big Gallup jump today:

53% Approve (+4)
39% Disapprove (-3)
Gallup's been all over the place lately.
Logged
Oakvale
oakvale
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,627
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8013 on: June 02, 2011, 01:11:17 pm »

Gallup's being weird.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8014 on: June 02, 2011, 03:45:57 pm »

Foretaste on Minnesota. Which one of these looks like the most likely first President of the United States from Minnesota? (Hubert Humphrey is obviously no longer available).

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

The current Senator will have to wait until 2016. The quibble on the difference between approval and favorability is slight in contrast to the obvious.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MN_0602.pdf

PPP, which hadn't polled Minnesota since December, will be releasing approvals on the President in Iowa and Minnesota this week.
Logged
DS0816
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,173
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8015 on: June 03, 2011, 07:07:40 am »

Party affliliation can only go so far; plenty of Republican presidents the last 40 years while there were more self-identifying Democrats.

I'll trust Gallup's polling over Rasmussen's. Ras was the one that told us McCain was still ahead in Ohio til early October. I think Zogby, or someone else, pulled the same crap with Florida.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,820


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8016 on: June 03, 2011, 08:00:51 am »

Party affliliation can only go so far; plenty of Republican presidents the last 40 years while there were more self-identifying Democrats.

I'll trust Gallup's polling over Rasmussen's. Ras was the one that told us McCain was still ahead in Ohio til early October. I think Zogby, or someone else, pulled the same crap with Florida.

Gallup was off by several points for the whole country.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8017 on: June 03, 2011, 11:08:14 am »
« Edited: June 03, 2011, 04:40:45 pm by pbrower2a »

Iowa, PPP.  Probably off the table for any GOP nominee for President in 2012, with President Obama likely winning it about as he did in 2008 against Romney. Others are barely worth mentioning. Still a May poll.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.



Current map:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 48
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 134
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   126
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 54
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 43
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  




Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,525
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8018 on: June 03, 2011, 03:21:51 pm »

Gallup

Approve: 51 (-2)
Disapprove: 42 (+3)

Logged
Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8019 on: June 03, 2011, 08:59:18 pm »


They're just all over the place lately hugh?

Oh well.  Obama's probably around 48-50% and they just got a couplet bad samples recently
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,787
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8020 on: June 04, 2011, 12:00:42 am »

Allstate / National Journal Hearland Monitor:

51% Approve
41% Disapprove

http://www.allstate.com/Allstate/content/refresh-attachments/Heartland_IX_data.pdf
Logged
Poundingtherock
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 917
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8021 on: June 04, 2011, 12:36:36 pm »

Obama falls apart in Gallup.  Back down to 48/44

Down ten net approval points in two days.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,525
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8022 on: June 04, 2011, 12:49:44 pm »

Yeah, I'd say Obama's somewhere around 48-52. Probably a dip in approval due to job losses in May.
Logged
Oakvale
oakvale
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,627
Ireland, Republic of
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8023 on: June 04, 2011, 01:17:48 pm »

Obama falls apart in Gallup.  Back down to 48/44

Down ten net approval points in two days.

Stop saying that, it's silly. It's like me going Obama surges in approval!!!!!11 after the bump a few days ago.
Logged
Poundingtherock
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 917
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8024 on: June 04, 2011, 01:25:01 pm »

Unfortunately Oakvale, your buddies in the Democrat Party all pointed to how Obama's approval rating in Gallup was at its highest point and how his disapproval was now under 40% when he hit 53/39 two days ago.

Now that he's back down to a mediocre 48/44 and may fall tomorrow as well, I'm going to point it out.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 316 317 318 319 320 [321] 322 323 324 325 326 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines