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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1030812 times)
J. J.
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« Reply #7975 on: May 27, 2011, 08:38:02 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, -1.

Disapprove 49%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +2.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #7976 on: May 27, 2011, 12:06:10 pm »

Interesting, thanks.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7977 on: May 27, 2011, 12:26:34 pm »


You're welcome. It is a model, and I have no statistical evidence to back it.  Whether it works or not this time may depend upon the personality and achievements of the President -- for which nobody has any objective fact.

 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7978 on: May 27, 2011, 11:41:04 pm »
« Edited: May 28, 2011, 11:02:25 pm by Mr. Morden »

Rasmussen polled NJ this week, but approvals are only available to premium members because of Rasmussen's shadyness in recent years.

link
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J. J.
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« Reply #7979 on: May 28, 2011, 12:55:56 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50, +1.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.

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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7980 on: May 28, 2011, 11:01:16 pm »

Rasmussen has jumped the shark now with its latest Rasmussen New Jersey poll.  There's absolutely no reason to believe that Rasmussen provides a more accurate picture of New Jersey than SurveyUSA.  And before you think SurveyUSA has some type of bias against certain types of Republicans, just look at the Bachmann/Pawlenty numbers in Minnesota.  Rasmussen is pretty much an establishment Republican schill at this point.

The good news though is that PPP and Tom Jensen were embarrassed itself in the West Virginia GOP primary. 

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7981 on: May 28, 2011, 11:03:15 pm »

Rasmussen polled NJ this week, but approvals are only available to premium members because of Rasmussen's shadyness in recent years.

link


I modified your post because the URL was stretching the page.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7982 on: May 28, 2011, 11:07:32 pm »

Rasmussen has jumped the shark now with its latest Rasmussen New Jersey poll.  There's absolutely no reason to believe that Rasmussen provides a more accurate picture of New Jersey than SurveyUSA.  And before you think SurveyUSA has some type of bias against certain types of Republicans, just look at the Bachmann/Pawlenty numbers in Minnesota.  Rasmussen is pretty much an establishment Republican schill at this point.

The good news though is that PPP and Tom Jensen were embarrassed itself in the West Virginia GOP primary. 

How were they "embarrassed" ?

They were the only pollster which noticed that Ireland was falling behind. Maloney just picked up the majority of the undecided vote in the last days ...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7983 on: May 28, 2011, 11:08:32 pm »

Democracy Corps (D):

May 21-25, 2011
1000 Likely Voters

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Total approve ..................................................................... 49
Total disapprove ................................................................ 45

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/dcor052511fq5_political.pdf
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7984 on: May 28, 2011, 11:28:10 pm »

Tender,

The Politico write-up of PPP's error makes it clear that nobody thought the primary contest would be close except for PPP.   Maloney had already won over voters that PPP claimed were undecided.

If you want to excuse a 13-point error, go right ahead.  Every pollster will claim from this point forward that they got it right but only missed the undecideds.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7985 on: May 28, 2011, 11:39:33 pm »

Tender,

The Politico write-up of PPP's error makes it clear that nobody thought the primary contest would be close except for PPP.   Maloney had already won over voters that PPP claimed were undecided.

If you want to excuse a 13-point error, go right ahead.  Every pollster will claim from this point forward that they got it right but only missed the undecideds.

Take a close look here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Virginia_gubernatorial_special_election,_2011#Polling_2

Between the 2 PPP polls, Ireland gained zero - I repeat - zero support, while Maloney got almost all of the undecideds.

Why would it be so out of question that Maloney got all of the remaining undecided support over the final weekend ?
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7986 on: May 29, 2011, 12:00:15 am »

You're missing the argument.

PPP found undecideds when there weren't any.....they had already decided to vote for Maloney by the time PPP called West Virginia Republicans.

So PPP found a much more indecisive electorate than the actual electoraate at the  time it called.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7987 on: May 29, 2011, 08:47:51 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50, u.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -1.


(Would somebody else please get this for the next fortnight.)
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7988 on: May 29, 2011, 12:41:10 pm »

Obama falls apart in Gallup.  Down to 46/45 among adults.
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Dgov
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« Reply #7989 on: May 29, 2011, 01:34:35 pm »

Obama falls apart in Gallup.  Down to 46/45 among adults.

Two Big Drops in a row too, which suggest either two consecutive bad samples, or a bad sample coming in and then a good one dropping out.  Also might be something to do with memorial weekend biasing the samples.  If he's not up to at least 49% again by Tuesday, he's probably taken a substantive hit.
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Penelope
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« Reply #7990 on: May 29, 2011, 02:30:13 pm »

They probably got a slightly more negative sample.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7991 on: May 29, 2011, 03:21:16 pm »

Obama's approval ratings are incredibly weak considering that he won with 53% of the vote.

Even if he wins in 2012, he'll probably end up being the only incumbent in the last 100 years other than Wilson to win with a smaller percentage of the vote than he won his first term with.

I still think he loses and potentially loses big.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7992 on: May 29, 2011, 06:26:08 pm »

Obama's approval ratings are incredibly weak considering that he won with 53% of the vote.

Even if he wins in 2012, he'll probably end up being the only incumbent in the last 100 years other than Wilson to win with a smaller percentage of the vote than he won his first term with.

I still think he loses and potentially loses big.



Approval is a tough standard. In general, an incumbent Governor or Senator typically gains about 6% vote share from approval between the primary and the general election. 6%? That sounds like a lot -- but remember -- governing and campaigning are very different entities.

46/45 is still good enough that with an 'average' campaign he will get 52% of the vote share with which he can't lose. If current statewide polls are true, then the President will win roughly as he did in 2008.

President Obama can still be defeated if certain things happen -- a personal scandal, a severe meltdown in the economy, or an unrelieved military or diplomatic debacle. But time is running out for any of those. The potential GOP candidates are unusually weak; the GOP majority in the House is now wildly unpopular. GOP governors in a swath of stats from Iowa to new Jersey are incredibly unpopular -- and just look at Florida. Do you think that any Republican nominee for President will want to appear on a podium with Governors Scott, Walker, Snyder, Corbett, or Christie? Nobody likes a loser.

If you think that President Obama has a weak chance of winning re-election, then just look at Dubya, the lowest-achieving President since Jimmy Carter. Dubya had an approval rating in the mid-to-high forties throughout most of 2004... and still won. So why should Dubya win and Obama lose?

President Obama has done most of what one expects a President to do and get re-elected. He has an extensive record of legislative achievements. He has avoided scandals. He has presided over an improving economy for most of his first term. He has gotten us less involved in foreign wars without an obvious defeat. All that remains is that certain negatives don't happen.

Don't count on an economic meltdown; there's no bubble to burst, as the one that could burst about five years ago did -- before he was elected. This President is a stickler for legal, procedural, and diplomatic niceties; he clearly pays attention to intel. When Sarah Palin said

"If we had a real leader instead of a Professor of Constitutional Law (basically things would be better)"

she vastly underestimated this President.

 We are beginning to see why lawyers dominate the Presidency and not other certifiably-smart people (like physicians, engineers, research scientists, journalists, novelists, classical musicians, prelates, and certified public accountants) as President. Lawyers are competitive generalists adept at winning on details.  The other smart people who have more representation as President are high-ranking military officers (so far only Army Generals, but I can imagine Navy Admirals)  are competitive generalists who can win on a detail.  We had one college professor (W. Wilson) and he got mixed results.

So far he seems to win much as he did in 2008 against Romney and pulls off a landslide against just about anyone else.
 
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #7993 on: May 29, 2011, 07:30:00 pm »

So you are comparing Obama's 2011 numbers to Bush's 2004 numbers?   The proper comparison is between Obama's 2011 numbers and Bush's 2003 numbers and Bush is wins that comparison easily.

He didn't have anywhere near Obama's baggage and he was coming off a great 2002 midterm election.

As for Palin's lawyer comment, I think she's right in the sense that a non-lawyer would be able to less likely to consider an counterargument that should not be treated with any credibility.  As lawyers, we are trained to consider both sides but that mindset doesn't necessarily translate into being a good President.

To call Obama a "lawyer" is a little misleading in the sense that he did not have a distinguished career as a practicing lawyer.  He worked for a scumbag "civil rights" law firm as a back-bencher.  A practicing lawyer probably brings more to the table in my opinion than a lawyer who derives his experience from the classroom.
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King
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« Reply #7994 on: May 29, 2011, 07:58:27 pm »

So we have our mypalfish of the 2012 cycle? Lovely.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7995 on: May 29, 2011, 10:27:43 pm »
« Edited: May 30, 2011, 10:28:35 am by pbrower2a »

So you are comparing Obama's 2011 numbers to Bush's 2004 numbers?   The proper comparison is between Obama's 2011 numbers and Bush's 2003 numbers and Bush is wins that comparison easily.

There is no perfect analogy. George W. Bush was riding the good will related to early ground wins in Iraq -- before the guerrilla warfare began and started killing so many Americans. President Obama has not had approval ratings as inflated as those of Dubya. "Steady as she goes" will be adequate until campaign season begins.  

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Unless you fail to count "incompetence" and "dishonesty" as baggage, in which case Dubya is overloaded. The great 2002 midterm -- the result of 9/11. I have seen plenty of articles suggesting that Dubya was one of the worst Presidents in American history that don't even mention ideology. Those that castigate President Obama center on his agenda. So it was with Ronald Reagan, and Reagan still won big in 1984.

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But those are habits that attorneys need! Most others get away with some finagling, as you can see with some of the professions that I mentioned. Nothing says that one must be a superb attorney to be a good President (example: Truman, but somehow I think that Truman would have been a fine attorney). If you can't see the counterargument then you can't recognize a rash action for consequences beyond the objective.

Case: I look at the gangland-style hit that put an end to Osama bin Laden. I can imagine what went through the mind of the President -- most notably, "what can go wrong?" There could have been a Pakistani military guard present in a place full of Pakistani army officers. That might have made the hit fail not only but to kill Pakistanis that the President had no desire to harm... and perhaps turn Pakistan into a new Iran.

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So he went into elected public office. Of course, the most lucrative area of legal practice is corporate law... if he had been greedy and materialistic, then he would have been good at it.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7996 on: May 30, 2011, 12:08:25 am »

Lol... before Edwards did himself in... what were the GOPers saying about him?

It's Pouding-the-Palin-rock... he's back now Palin looks like getting into the race.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7997 on: May 30, 2011, 12:10:32 am »

Gallup has a tool for comparing and contrasting the approvals of Presidents. The closest analogues for President Obama are Presidents Reagan and Clinton. The charts of their approval ratings are so similar that the difference looks at all times but the first 200 days. Differences  look like random noise for our  40th, 42nd, and 44th Presidents.  

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Job-Approval-Center.aspx

Two of the three were re-elected decisively. The other is President Obama.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7998 on: May 30, 2011, 08:42:40 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, -1.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 34%, -1.

Well someone else get this, starting tomorrow?
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Carapace Clavicle Moundshroud
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« Reply #7999 on: May 30, 2011, 02:37:57 pm »

Yeah, the country is going to embrace this beyond mediocre president and he will win by the same amount. Where's that "era of good feelings" you were predicting pbrower?

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