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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1030906 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #7925 on: May 17, 2011, 05:14:39 pm »

pbrower, you misunderstand me.  You're right to exclude EGFP polls from your maps, but the thread isn't about your maps.  "EGFP  and favorable/unfavorable both fail to fit the parameters of this thread" is a silly comment.  They fail to fit the parameters of your *maps*, but they do fit the parameters of this thread.


One is free to post any poll, no matter how questionable the source or  shaky its reliability.  I haven't jumped on obvious typos, which so far seem most of the causes for question.

Sure, this thread is not about my maps. My maps, I hope, serve as a device for memory and analysis.  A year from now I might not post them for the simple reason that someone else will have a more professional approach. Here is that  person's website:

http://electoral-vote.com/

It has been dormant since December 2010, when the last House seat was decided. It will surely be back in operation perhaps as early as January 2012, and when it shows Presidential matchups I will abandon  this effort quickly.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7926 on: May 17, 2011, 11:57:21 pm »

Maine (Critical Insights):

52% Favorable
33% Unfavorable

(Gov. LePage)

31% Approve
54% Disapprove

For the current wave of the study, Critical Insights completed a total of 600 telephone interviews with randomly selected voters across the state between May 5-9, 2011.

http://www.criticalinsights.com/assets/CriticalInsightsTrackingSurveySpring2011.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7927 on: May 18, 2011, 08:57:36 am »

Maine (Critical Insights):

52% Favorable
33% Unfavorable

(Gov. LePage)

31% Approve
54% Disapprove

For the current wave of the study, Critical Insights completed a total of 600 telephone interviews with randomly selected voters across the state between May 5-9, 2011.

http://www.criticalinsights.com/assets/CriticalInsightsTrackingSurveySpring2011.pdf

I am using the gubernatorial poll in my "Governors' approval" map, but I can;t use the favorability poll on my Presidential approval map. Hint: the Governor of Maine is political poison, and I question whether Senator Olympia Snowe can win both re0nomination and re-election as a Republican.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7928 on: May 18, 2011, 09:04:01 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50, u.

Disapprove 49%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 34%, u.
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5280
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« Reply #7929 on: May 18, 2011, 11:28:14 am »

Like I say, take this thread with a grain of salt. Otherwise, its a joke.  Notice how there's rarely anybody posting on here anymore?
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #7930 on: May 18, 2011, 02:44:06 pm »

Like I say, take this thread with a grain of salt. Otherwise, its a joke.  Notice how there's rarely anybody posting on here anymore?

I come here daily to see the data because it's so comprehensive. I just wish this was a data-only thread with the analysis confined somewhere else that's easily ignored.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7931 on: May 19, 2011, 12:14:12 am »

FOX News Poll:

55% Approve
41% Disapprove

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll is based on live telephone interviews with a national sample of 910 registered voters, and was conducted May 15-17, 2011 in the evenings.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/051811_bin_Laden_web.pdf

New Jersey (Monmouth)Sad

Adults:

60% Approve, 35% Disapprove

Registered Voters:

60% Approve, 36% Disapprove

The Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll was conducted by telephone with 807 New Jersey adults from May 12 to 16, 2011. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.5 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and originally published by the NJ Press Media newspaper group (Asbury Park Press, Courier-Post, Courier News, Daily Journal, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune).

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP39_2.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7932 on: May 19, 2011, 05:53:18 am »

Ohio (Quinnipiac)Sad

49% Approve
45% Disapprove

Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?

41% Obama
39% Republican

Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

47% Yes
47% No

From May 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,379 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1602
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7933 on: May 19, 2011, 09:18:01 am »

New York (Siena)Sad

How would you rate the job that Barack Obama is doing as President? Would you rate it excellent, good, fair, or poor?

53% Excellent/Good
47% Fair/Poor

I'm going to read a series of names of people and institutions in public life and I'd like you to tell me whether you have a favorable opinion or an unfavorable opinion of each person or institution I name: Barack Obama

62% Favorable
36% Unfavorable

Barack Obama is running for re-election as President in 2012. I know it's a ways off, but as things stand now, would you vote to re-elect him or would you prefer someone else?

54% Re-elect Obama
39% Prefer someone else

Siena College Research Institute, May 11-13, 15-17, 2011, 807 New York State Registered Voters, MOE +/- 3.4%

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/Parents_and_Community/Community_Page/SRI/SNY_Poll/SNY0511%20Crosstabs.pdf
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J. J.
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« Reply #7934 on: May 19, 2011, 09:18:39 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, -1.

Disapprove 50%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, +1.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7935 on: May 19, 2011, 11:43:18 am »

North Carolina (Civitas)Sad

51% Approve
45% Disapprove

(Gov. Perdue)

46% Approve
41% Disapprove

This poll of 600 registered general election voters in North Carolina was conducted May 10-11, 2011 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.

http://www.nccivitas.org/2011/civitas-poll-perdue-job-approval-remains-under-50-percent
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7936 on: May 19, 2011, 12:47:28 pm »
« Edited: May 19, 2011, 12:49:46 pm by pbrower2a »

Ohio (Quinnipiac)Sad

49% Approve
45% Disapprove

Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... If the 2012 election for President were being held today, do you think you would vote for Barack Obama the Democratic candidate, or for the Republican candidate?

41% Obama
39% Republican

Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President... Do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?

47% Yes
47% No

From May 10 - 16, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,379 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1602

FOX News Poll:

55% Approve
41% Disapprove

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll is based on live telephone interviews with a national sample of 910 registered voters, and was conducted May 15-17, 2011 in the evenings.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/051811_bin_Laden_web.pdf

New Jersey (Monmouth)Sad

Adults:

60% Approve, 35% Disapprove

Registered Voters:

60% Approve, 36% Disapprove

The Monmouth University/NJ Press Media Poll was conducted by telephone with 807 New Jersey adults from May 12 to 16, 2011. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.5 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and originally published by the NJ Press Media newspaper group (Asbury Park Press, Courier-Post, Courier News, Daily Journal, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune).

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling/admin/polls/MUP39_2.pdf

North Carolina (Civitas)Sad

51% Approve
45% Disapprove

(Gov. Perdue)

46% Approve
41% Disapprove

This poll of 600 registered general election voters in North Carolina was conducted May 10-11, 2011 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.

http://www.nccivitas.org/2011/civitas-poll-perdue-job-approval-remains-under-50-percent

New Jersey, North Carolina, and Ohio updates.


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 132
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   109
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 132
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   109
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 42
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against anyone other than Romney 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7937 on: May 19, 2011, 03:51:45 pm »

Pbrower, light green and dark green mean the same thing on your map. 
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izixs
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« Reply #7938 on: May 19, 2011, 06:05:41 pm »

Light green might now be weak clowns vs. Romney + Pawlenty + Huntsman now or some such. Its not entirely clear and won't be until more polling is done with the cast of characters we'll actually have to watch.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7939 on: May 19, 2011, 09:39:13 pm »

Pbrower, light green and dark green mean the same thing on your map. 

You are right on the bottom map, and thanks for catching it. It is conceivable, though, that someone might bring some unforeseen strengths as a possible Republican nominee. Daniels? Huntsman? Pawlenty?

At the least, Florida and Pennsylvania seem to get polled very often. Light green seems to mean that Palin automatically loses and that perhaps Gingrich does. Trump didn't figure in with any matches against President Obama.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7940 on: May 20, 2011, 08:52:00 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, +2.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7941 on: May 20, 2011, 03:47:33 pm »
« Edited: May 20, 2011, 08:28:57 pm by pbrower2a »

Now for the upper left corner (WA, PPP), in case Republicans have hope that the state might be drifting their way.

Quote
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Naw.


 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 42
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7942 on: May 21, 2011, 12:20:19 am »

SurveyUSA May Polls:

California: 56% Approve, 40% Disapprove (+10, -10)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c717d146-99e7-4de8-8217-9fb792fc2fb8

Kansas: 42% Approve, 54% Disapprove (+6, -7)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c9cb9d95-0451-467c-8613-efb0bf5d4a7e

Oregon: 46% Approve, 49% Disapprove (-1, nc)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

Washington: 50% Approve, 47% Disapprove (+1, nc)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c34262fe-7152-4e56-be8d-dd7e32b0f6dd
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7943 on: May 21, 2011, 12:22:10 am »

Yeah, Obama has a 33-58 approval among Oregon Independents ... LOL !

Tongue
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J. J.
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« Reply #7944 on: May 21, 2011, 09:41:14 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48, -1.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, -1.

Remarkably stable numbers.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7945 on: May 21, 2011, 12:33:28 pm »


Yeah, Obama has a 33-58 approval among Oregon Independents ... LOL !

Tongue

SurveyUSA polls can be interesting in their own way. They are the only polls that I ever see of Kansas... and the May poll of that state is fascinating. For so conservative a state as Kansas , a 42% approval of the President looks very good. President Obama lost the state by 15%, but not since 1992 has any Democratic nominee been as close as 5% to the Republican nominee. Of course, I figure that Ross Perot was picking off lots of conservative voters in 1992. Gore lost the state by 20% and Kerry by 26% in close elections.

I can't see President Obama winning Kansas except against a lunatic (he'd probably get at most 48% of the vote against someone like Romney or Pawlenty now that Huckabee is out), but I can imagine a House seat or two shifting there with a somewhat-sane Republican as a Presidential nominee. Two here, two there, one here, three there -- it all adds up in the House.

Because nobody else polls Kansas I might be tempted to post the SurveyUSA poll for Kansas on my map -- but that is it. The rest look like either "me-too" efforts or otherwise spurious. 

The last poll that I had for Kansas was SurveyUSA poll in December, and if i thought that one reasonable, I see no cause to believe this one unreasonable.



 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 46
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   48




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.






             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 144
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 42
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against someone other than Romney 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 12
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  48  


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J. J.
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« Reply #7946 on: May 22, 2011, 08:56:31 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, +1.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #7947 on: May 23, 2011, 09:11:59 am »

I can't see President Obama winning Kansas except against a lunatic (he'd probably get at most 48% of the vote against someone like Romney or Pawlenty now that Huckabee is out),

Expecting a shift of "only" 13 or 15 points there? How very restrained.

but I can imagine a House seat or two shifting there with a somewhat-sane Republican as a Presidential nominee. Two here, two there, one here, three there -- it all adds up in the House.

This is an interesting point that I'd love to learn more about! Which of the 4 GOP held seats in Kansas do you expect Democrats to "shift" with a "somewhat-sane Republican" nominee?
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J. J.
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« Reply #7948 on: May 23, 2011, 09:25:52 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, u.

Disapprove 50%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7949 on: May 23, 2011, 10:12:47 am »

I can't see President Obama winning Kansas except against a lunatic (he'd probably get at most 48% of the vote against someone like Romney or Pawlenty now that Huckabee is out),

Expecting a shift of "only" 13 or 15 points there? How very restrained.


1960-1964. Barry Goldwater was no a lunatic, but he got connected to extreme-sounding positions and rhetoric. But what if the Republican nominee is an honest-to-Birch nutcase who resuscitates McCarthyism against liberals?  I can just imagine Kansas choosing sober, pragmatic liberalism over some lunatic-fringe demagoguery. To say that Kansas wouldn't vote for a fascist running as a Republican is like saying that Massachusetts wouldn't vote for a Marxist running as a Democrat.    

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This is an interesting point that I'd love to learn more about! Which of the 4 GOP held seats in Kansas do you expect Democrats to "shift" with a "somewhat-sane Republican" nominee?
[/quote][/quote]

It's the aftermath of the mad proposal to privatize Medicare -- something that can't  be done except by giving the assets to some profiteering monopolist who would gut service and raise costs for captive 'policy-holders' far beyond the means of most current recipients. The Congressional GOP has bit into a political disaster.

Medicare is a prime example of a 'socialist' program that not only works better than private business could ever do for efficacy and cost, and that has the trust of people who consider themselves 'conservatives' on many other issues. Say what you want about government-run bureaucracies, but they seem to to run far better than cartels and trusts designed solely to fleece clients. Privatization of government programs to allow competition as an alternative to hide-bound bureaucracies makes sense. Privatization of the public sector on behalf of crony capitalists is a disaster for all but the would-be crony capitalists.

...Kansas has four Congressional representatives, all Republicans. For even one of them to be defeated -- a possibility if the Republicans can't backtrack fast enough on privatization of Medicare would be a symptom of a loss of the House. But remember -- GOP extremism is better defined in the House of Representatives than among some former and current Governors who have no ties to the current House. "One here, one there, two here, three there" is more a reference to states much less R-leaning than Kansas, where Republicans made House gains in 2010... like Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, and Michigan. Maybe Georgia and Missouri as well.

The Democrats have a better chance of winning the two House seats of Republicans in New Hampshire than one in Kansas... but it would take 'only' 27 House seats to shift from R to D for the Democrats to regain the House, and Kansas might be one of those states in which Republicans do not lose a House seat when 30 lose theirs. 

Barry Goldwater may have said:

"I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice. And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue."

But I would remind you that political extremism in the pursuit of profit is a vice, and laxity in the defense of the most helpless is no virtue. 

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