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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031066 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #7900 on: May 14, 2011, 12:05:24 am »

Please do not include the Zogby poll, pbrower.

It's a favorable poll, not an approval poll.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7901 on: May 14, 2011, 04:08:54 am »

Please do not include the Zogby poll, pbrower.

It's a favorable poll, not an approval poll.

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J. J.
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« Reply #7902 on: May 14, 2011, 09:23:55 pm »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48, +1

Disapprove 51%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -2.

A bad sample dropped.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #7903 on: May 14, 2011, 10:12:53 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 29%, -19

Disapprove 70%, +19.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -2.

Could be a bad sample. Come back tomorrow.


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Dgov
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« Reply #7904 on: May 14, 2011, 10:16:46 pm »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 29%, -19

Disapprove 70%, +19.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -2.

Could be a bad sample. Come back tomorrow.


You'd think they would be better with the Typos by now
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J. J.
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« Reply #7905 on: May 15, 2011, 09:36:43 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 29%, -19

Disapprove 70%, +19.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -2.

Could be a bad sample. Come back tomorrow.


You'd think they would be better with the Typos by now

Except it is not my typos.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7906 on: May 15, 2011, 09:39:51 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48, u.

Disapprove 51%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, +1.

It is in the description, but not up on the chart.
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Penelope
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« Reply #7907 on: May 15, 2011, 10:10:52 am »

Gallup's at 48-45. Down 2 from Friday, likely a negative sample. We'll see if it goes back up later today.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7908 on: May 15, 2011, 01:43:15 pm »
« Edited: May 16, 2011, 06:12:03 am by pbrower2a »

With the announcement by Mike Huckabee that he will not be running for President, I can make a subtle change for one state (Iowa). Some subtle changes in wording also become possible, as anyone other than Romney now seems a blunder:
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 42
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 6
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee anyone other than Romney 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7909 on: May 15, 2011, 01:45:27 pm »

Gallup's at 48-45. Down 2 from Friday, likely a negative sample. We'll see if it goes back up later today.

The euphoria over the demise of Osama bin Laden was short-lived. Good call, but it's the economy now.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7910 on: May 16, 2011, 12:54:36 am »

Politico Poll:

52% Approve
44% Disapprove

The POLITICO - George Washington University Battleground Poll is a national recognized, bipartisan political opinion survey focused on election politics in the United States.

The poll is conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.

The poll of 1000 likely voters was conducted May 8-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

http://www.politico.com/polls/politico-george-washington-university-battleground-poll.html
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7911 on: May 16, 2011, 01:14:02 am »

Hawaii checks in once again:



(Gov. Neil Abercrombie)

50% Approve
36% Disapprove

The poll of 614 registered voters was conducted by Ward Research for Hawaii News Now and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/14649236/hawaii-poll-half-of-island-voters-approve-of-governor-in-first-six-months-of-term
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7912 on: May 16, 2011, 01:17:53 am »

Looks like Obama is about where he was on Election Night 2008 right now, or even slightly better off.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7913 on: May 16, 2011, 06:13:59 am »

Hawaii checks in once again:



(Gov. Neil Abercrombie)

50% Approve
36% Disapprove

The poll of 614 registered voters was conducted by Ward Research for Hawaii News Now and the Honolulu Star-Advertiser.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/14649236/hawaii-poll-half-of-island-voters-approve-of-governor-in-first-six-months-of-term

It changes nothing in my Presidential projection, so I have no new map.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7914 on: May 16, 2011, 08:56:35 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -1.

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7915 on: May 16, 2011, 03:47:03 pm »

Michigan (EPIC-MRA)Sad

53% (+9) Favorable
40%  (-9) Unfavorable

49% (+11) Excellent/Good
50%  (-11) Fair/Poor

The poll of 600 likely 2012 voters from across the state was taken from May 9-11. It was a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

http://www.freep.com/article/20110516/NEWS15/110516056/Obama-approval-up-Michigan-after-bin-Laden-s-death
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7916 on: May 16, 2011, 05:12:37 pm »

Michigan (EPIC-MRA)Sad

53% (+9) Favorable
40%  (-9) Unfavorable

49% (+11) Excellent/Good
50%  (-11) Fair/Poor

The poll of 600 likely 2012 voters from across the state was taken from May 9-11. It was a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

http://www.freep.com/article/20110516/NEWS15/110516056/Obama-approval-up-Michigan-after-bin-Laden-s-death

Again, EGFP  and favorable/unfavorable both fail to fit the parameters of this thread.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7917 on: May 17, 2011, 05:48:04 am »

Michigan (EPIC-MRA)Sad

53% (+9) Favorable
40%  (-9) Unfavorable

49% (+11) Excellent/Good
50%  (-11) Fair/Poor

The poll of 600 likely 2012 voters from across the state was taken from May 9-11. It was a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

http://www.freep.com/article/20110516/NEWS15/110516056/Obama-approval-up-Michigan-after-bin-Laden-s-death

Again, EGFP  and favorable/unfavorable both fail to fit the parameters of this thread.

And your repeated posting of general election matchup polling and 5-colored maps modeling Obama's reelection chances does "fit the parameters of this thread"?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7918 on: May 17, 2011, 07:22:02 am »

Michigan (EPIC-MRA)Sad

53% (+9) Favorable
40%  (-9) Unfavorable

49% (+11) Excellent/Good
50%  (-11) Fair/Poor

The poll of 600 likely 2012 voters from across the state was taken from May 9-11. It was a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

http://www.freep.com/article/20110516/NEWS15/110516056/Obama-approval-up-Michigan-after-bin-Laden-s-death

Again, EGFP  and favorable/unfavorable both fail to fit the parameters of this thread.

And your repeated posting of general election matchup polling and 5-colored maps modeling Obama's reelection chances does "fit the parameters of this thread"?


I got sharp criticism for using EGFP and "favorability" polls.

If you don't like my five-color maps... tough! 
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7919 on: May 17, 2011, 07:31:36 am »

Well, I agree that you shouldn't put those on your maps.  But this thread isn't just about your maps.

It seems rather silly of you to criticize Tender's posting of E/G/F/P polls in this thread, considering the amount of space you devote to items here that are only tenuously connected to Obama approval ratings.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7920 on: May 17, 2011, 09:46:44 am »

Rasmussen:

50% Approve (+1)
49% Disapprove (-1)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history

PPP/DailyKos:

51% Approve
44% Disapprove

52% Favorable
42% Unfavorable

Public Policy Polling, 1002 Registered Voters, MoE 3.1%, May 12, 2011 - May 15, 2011

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/5/12
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7921 on: May 17, 2011, 10:25:25 am »
« Edited: May 17, 2011, 12:32:05 pm by pbrower2a »

Well, I agree that you shouldn't put those on your maps.  But this thread isn't just about your maps.

It seems rather silly of you to criticize Tender's posting of E/G/F/P polls in this thread, considering the amount of space you devote to items here that are only tenuously connected to Obama approval ratings.


1. I don't pretend to be neutral on contemporary politics -- including the near-future.

2. I am trying to predict the future upon objective evidence -- and that means reliable polls.

3. Tender Branson himself has told me to remove "favorability" and EGFP polls. I remind people why I don't include them in case we have a newbie who doesn't go through hundreds of posts.

"Favorability" is essentially that one likes the politician even if one thinks him a bumbler, as in "He's a nice guy, but his economic policies are hurting us". "EGFP" includes "fair", which is ambiguous. "He's doing a fair job" can suggest that one is performing adequately, but not remarkably well, as in "not bad for what I expected".  

4.  Anyone can post a poll even if it is blatantly biased. Someone even posted a fabricated poll within the last couple of weeks (it was ostensibly by a University of Texas entity and showed a ridiculously-high level of approval for the President).  I have stated in my methodology (which needs to be repeated because it isn't self-evident) that polls by organizations with blatant bias (political parties and their fronts, political campaigns, unions, trade organizations, ethnic associations, extremist  groups) don't figure in my model.  If I use a poll by the NAACP (which does much good), do I also need to include polls collected by a Klan group?

I checked the link for what proved a bogus poll, and I removed a post in which I had used the data. "Trust but verify" is good practice.  

Likewise I saw a news release of polls supposedly by Marist -- ordinarily a good poster, but one that has been in hibernation in recent months in issuing statewide polling results. The news source was the once-respected UPI that has now fallen into the control of the Unification Church, the cult of Reverend Sun Myung Moon. The poster of that news release said that he wanted to see it from Marist itself. The official release by Marist never came, so maybe the news story was a fake.
 
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J. J.
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« Reply #7922 on: May 17, 2011, 11:14:18 am »
« Edited: May 17, 2011, 04:49:11 pm by J. J. »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 34%, -1.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7923 on: May 17, 2011, 01:11:41 pm »

Interesting poll by Rasmussen:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/general_lifestyle/may_2011/50_give_government_positive_marks_for_response_to_weather_disasters

 

Quote
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Wording of questions:

Quote
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This may as much be a response to state governors, largely in the South, as to the President and the Federal government. It looks better than the response to Hurricane Katrina, though.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7924 on: May 17, 2011, 04:04:51 pm »

pbrower, you misunderstand me.  You're right to exclude EGFP polls from your maps, but the thread isn't about your maps.  "EGFP  and favorable/unfavorable both fail to fit the parameters of this thread" is a silly comment.  They fail to fit the parameters of your *maps*, but they do fit the parameters of this thread.
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