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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7850 on: May 07, 2011, 08:57:58 am »

Rasmussen, May 7 (Saturday):

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But --

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The President now has the lowest level of "strong disapproval" since July 2009.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

My comment: any collateral benefits from the demise of Usama bin Laden will be to the benefit of Democrats of all kinds.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7851 on: May 07, 2011, 09:01:06 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 41, -9.  Smiley

Disapprove 48%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 33%, -1.

It looks like a typo in Rasmussen's numbers I think it is really:

Approve 51, +1.  

Disapprove 48%, -1.

Even with that, I'm surprised  the OBL bounce is not much greater.
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« Reply #7852 on: May 07, 2011, 09:12:07 am »

I think the change in the strongly approve/disapprove numbers are more telling - I think there's been firming support within the approve camp and some softening in the disapprove, while that may not necessarily translate to a clean transfer to approve/disapprove, it does suggest that those who liked Obama like him slightly more and some of those who REALLY hate him, don't hate him as much.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7853 on: May 07, 2011, 09:26:53 am »

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 41, -9.  Smiley

Disapprove 48%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 33%, -1.

It looks like a typo in Rasmussen's numbers I think it is really:

Approve 51, +1.  

Disapprove 48%, -1.

Even with that, I'm surprised  the OBL bounce is not much greater.


Maybe the War on Terror is "old, tired news". Maybe millions of people thought that Bin Laden was already dead before 5/1/2001.

Rasmussen does not recognize a bump that other pollsters find.

This is not directly related to the President, but:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 26% of Likely U.S. Voters continue to favor the budget proposal by Ryan that claims to cut federal spending by $4 trillion over the next decade. But thatís unchanged from a month ago.
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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/federal_budget/april_2011/opposition_to_ryan_budget_plan_grows

Maybe it is the economy. Maybe if general confidence rises, the economy will improve, and that will improve the approval ratings for the President.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #7854 on: May 07, 2011, 10:36:52 am »

New Quinnipiac:

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 40%

Approval is +6% and disapproval is -8% from before the killing.

The poll shows a huge positive shift among men but not much of a change among women.

It does look like the bounce is going to be a lot smaller than I initially thought it would be... still kind of early to say for sure though.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1596&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0



Those are probably good numbers for him.

The Republican number probably doesn't matter as much as most of those will drop him quickly, but 49% amongst independents is a good enough number for him to win.

At 40% amongst independents any President will likely lose.
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J. J.
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« Reply #7855 on: May 07, 2011, 11:03:10 am »

I think the change in the strongly approve/disapprove numbers are more telling - I think there's been firming support within the approve camp and some softening in the disapprove, while that may not necessarily translate to a clean transfer to approve/disapprove, it does suggest that those who liked Obama like him slightly more and some of those who REALLY hate him, don't hate him as much.

I think that fairly sizable drop in strongly disapprove is the real story.  His strongly approve numbers are actually worse than 2 months ago.  Obama stopped the bleeding, however.

There is an improvement in his "approve" numbers, but, like some of the other polls, it isn't dramatic. 

I expected a 10-20 point gain, and we have not seen that.
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« Reply #7856 on: May 07, 2011, 11:05:32 am »

I think the change in the strongly approve/disapprove numbers are more telling - I think there's been firming support within the approve camp and some softening in the disapprove, while that may not necessarily translate to a clean transfer to approve/disapprove, it does suggest that those who liked Obama like him slightly more and some of those who REALLY hate him, don't hate him as much.

I think that fairly sizable drop in strongly disapprove is the real story.  His strongly approve numbers are actually worse than 2 months ago.  Obama stopped the bleeding, however.

There is an improvement in his "approve" numbers, but, like some of the other polls, it isn't dramatic. 

I expected a 10-20 point gain, and we have not seen that.

You did? I expected 6-10...
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J. J.
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« Reply #7857 on: May 08, 2011, 09:21:29 am »
« Edited: May 08, 2011, 09:26:19 am by J. J. »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 51, u (typo fixed)

Disapprove 48%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 34%, +1.

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J. J.
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« Reply #7858 on: May 08, 2011, 09:25:31 am »

I think the change in the strongly approve/disapprove numbers are more telling - I think there's been firming support within the approve camp and some softening in the disapprove, while that may not necessarily translate to a clean transfer to approve/disapprove, it does suggest that those who liked Obama like him slightly more and some of those who REALLY hate him, don't hate him as much.

I think that fairly sizable drop in strongly disapprove is the real story.  His strongly approve numbers are actually worse than 2 months ago.  Obama stopped the bleeding, however.

There is an improvement in his "approve" numbers, but, like some of the other polls, it isn't dramatic. 

I expected a 10-20 point gain, and we have not seen that.

You did? I expected 6-10...

Yes, and I was one of the lower estimates.  Smiley

I'm really surprised his overall approval numbers are not higher.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7859 on: May 08, 2011, 10:34:46 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 51, u (typo fixed)

Disapprove 48%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 34%, +1.



That is very close to the results of the Presidential election of 2008. 51% approval from Rasmussen may be stronger than 54% from someone else.

PPP is polling Virginia this weekend, and results should be... interesting. The Senate race is a tossup (not a PPP poll, but one for the Washington Post), which suggests that political reality in 2012 may be more like that of 2006 than like 2010.  In 2006 the Democrats won Senate seats despite a lack of available open seats -- all  Democratic Senate gains coming through the defeat of incumbents. To be sure, 2012 will be a Presidential year. 
 
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« Reply #7860 on: May 08, 2011, 01:21:14 pm »

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Not necessarily, Virginia is growing more liberal, meaning that it would now be a tossup in a more Republican year than 2006. 
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« Reply #7861 on: May 09, 2011, 12:33:24 am »

VA (Washington Post):

Overall: 52-43
Pre-Bin-Laden: 49-46
Post-Bin-Laden: 57-40

This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone April 28 to May 4, 2011, among a random sample of 1,180 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia, including 1,040 registered voters and users of both conventional and cellular phones. 677 interviews conducted before targeting killing of Osama bin Laden; 503 afterward. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_050042011_MON.html
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7862 on: May 09, 2011, 06:45:38 am »
« Edited: May 09, 2011, 07:19:52 am by pbrower2a »

Virginia, before the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Washington Post (49-46). President Obama was going to win Virginia. This was probably after the GOP mucked up on Medicare, Medicaid, and the Ryan Budget (see how I interpret Arizona):
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   123
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   125
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 6
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7863 on: May 09, 2011, 07:04:01 am »


Virginia, before after the assassination of Osama bin Laden. Washington Post (49-46) 57-40. President Obama was going to win Virginia even before Osama bin Laden got the opportunity to meet the Great Satan more intimately and permanently.

Because Virginia was one of the states to have felt the worst effects of 9/11, it is easy to figure that the polling effects are stronger there than they would be in such a state as Ohio which had no originating flights no flights scheduled by the airlines to reach it, and no targets hit.  One of the commandeered jetliners flew from Virginia and smashed into the Pentagon, which is in Virginia.  With the arguable exception of New Hampshire (might have had passengers on one of the flights), Virginia is the only State to have ever voted for George W. Bush that felt 9/11 at the personal level.   

A 57% approval for President Obama in Virginia suggests a national landslide -- at least 55% of the popular vote nationwide, and about 400 electoral votes. Projections that show the President behind in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are likely obsolete.
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 131
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   110
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   125
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 36
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 6
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  



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Rowan
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« Reply #7864 on: May 09, 2011, 07:09:13 am »

Pbrower, no one in America even knows or cares about the Ryan budget. Please get out of your political bubble for once and look at things objectively.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7865 on: May 09, 2011, 07:38:37 am »
« Edited: May 09, 2011, 09:04:15 am by pbrower2a »

Pbrower, no one in America even knows or cares about the Ryan budget. Please get out of your political bubble for once and look at things objectively.

Maybe not in the Presidential race. For Congressional races -- maybe. Democratic challengers are going to run against it, and in many districts, Republicans are going to try to run from it. ordinarily a politician runs on his record and wins or runs from his record and loses.

In the Presidential election, we all know what event has more immediate influence. The WaPo poll after May 1, 2011 suggests that President Obama would win Virginia by something close to a 57-40 margin (and that is charitable to Republicans). Virginia is close to the national average in voting.

Guess which President was last to win 57% of the popular vote as an incumbent! Reagan won 59%, Nixon 60%, and LBJ 61%.

Dwight Eisenhower, 1956.  1956 was not a pretty year for Democrats. I cannot predict how a 57-43 split of the popular vote would manifest itself in electoral votes, so I can't give a map of such an event. 55-45 likely solidifies Indiana and North Carolina and flips at the least the following states from 2008:

Arizona
Georgia
Missouri
Montana

Ike won 457 electoral votes in 1956 and would have probably won both Alaska and Hawaii if those two states had been voting. Maybe even DC because the Democrats that year had the segregationist vote tied up.
  
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7866 on: May 09, 2011, 08:44:54 am »

A note from Rasmussen today:

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J. J.
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« Reply #7867 on: May 09, 2011, 08:58:50 am »

A note from Rasmussen today:

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No tracking numbers reported.
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« Reply #7868 on: May 09, 2011, 12:22:55 pm »

Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Approve: 51% (u)
Dissaprove: 40% (-1)
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7869 on: May 09, 2011, 12:43:19 pm »

Pbrower, no one in America even knows or cares about the Ryan budget. Please get out of your political bubble for once and look at things objectively.

Maybe not in the Presidential race. For Congressional races -- maybe. Democratic challengers are going to run against it, and in many districts, Republicans are going to try to run from it. ordinarily a politician runs on his record and wins or runs from his record and loses.

In the Presidential election, we all know what event has more immediate influence. The WaPo poll after May 1, 2011 suggests that President Obama would win Virginia by something close to a 57-40 margin (and that is charitable to Republicans). Virginia is close to the national average in voting.

Guess which President was last to win 57% of the popular vote as an incumbent! Reagan won 59%, Nixon 60%, and LBJ 61%.

Dwight Eisenhower, 1956.  1956 was not a pretty year for Democrats. I cannot predict how a 57-43 split of the popular vote would manifest itself in electoral votes, so I can't give a map of such an event. 55-45 likely solidifies Indiana and North Carolina and flips at the least the following states from 2008:

Arizona
Georgia
Missouri
Montana

Ike won 457 electoral votes in 1956 and would have probably won both Alaska and Hawaii if those two states had been voting. Maybe even DC because the Democrats that year had the segregationist vote tied up.
  

1956 was a pretty good year for Democrats downballot.
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« Reply #7870 on: May 09, 2011, 01:29:55 pm »


Gallup's weekly totals will also be up soon, and should all be Post-Bin-Laden, so we'll get some cross-tabs as well
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7871 on: May 09, 2011, 03:00:04 pm »

Pbrower, no one in America even knows or cares about the Ryan budget. Please get out of your political bubble for once and look at things objectively.

Maybe not in the Presidential race. For Congressional races -- maybe. Democratic challengers are going to run against it, and in many districts, Republicans are going to try to run from it. ordinarily a politician runs on his record and wins or runs from his record and loses.

In the Presidential election, we all know what event has more immediate influence. The WaPo poll after May 1, 2011 suggests that President Obama would win Virginia by something close to a 57-40 margin (and that is charitable to Republicans). Virginia is close to the national average in voting.

Guess which President was last to win 57% of the popular vote as an incumbent! Reagan won 59%, Nixon 60%, and LBJ 61%.

Dwight Eisenhower, 1956.  1956 was not a pretty year for Democrats. I cannot predict how a 57-43 split of the popular vote would manifest itself in electoral votes, so I can't give a map of such an event. 55-45 likely solidifies Indiana and North Carolina and flips at the least the following states from 2008:

Arizona
Georgia
Missouri
Montana

Ike won 457 electoral votes in 1956 and would have probably won both Alaska and Hawaii if those two states had been voting. Maybe even DC because the Democrats that year had the segregationist vote tied up.
  

1956 was a pretty good year for Democrats downballot.

Definately, 1956 was in no way an embrace of the GOP at all. On wikipedia (take it for what its worth) its says that it was primarily a vote for the status quo. They kept the Dems in control of the House and the Senate (which they had gained in 1954) while reelecting Ike in a landslide.

Ike's performance seems to me to be the last hurrah of the ancient Civil War Political map with a lot of his voters coming from legacy voting by people who really were Democrats and voted such on the rest of the ballot.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #7872 on: May 09, 2011, 03:32:54 pm »

Pbrower, no one in America even knows or cares about the Ryan budget. Please get out of your political bubble for once and look at things objectively.

Maybe not in the Presidential race. For Congressional races -- maybe. Democratic challengers are going to run against it, and in many districts, Republicans are going to try to run from it. ordinarily a politician runs on his record and wins or runs from his record and loses.

In the Presidential election, we all know what event has more immediate influence. The WaPo poll after May 1, 2011 suggests that President Obama would win Virginia by something close to a 57-40 margin (and that is charitable to Republicans). Virginia is close to the national average in voting.

Guess which President was last to win 57% of the popular vote as an incumbent! Reagan won 59%, Nixon 60%, and LBJ 61%.

Dwight Eisenhower, 1956.  1956 was not a pretty year for Democrats. I cannot predict how a 57-43 split of the popular vote would manifest itself in electoral votes, so I can't give a map of such an event. 55-45 likely solidifies Indiana and North Carolina and flips at the least the following states from 2008:

Arizona
Georgia
Missouri
Montana

Ike won 457 electoral votes in 1956 and would have probably won both Alaska and Hawaii if those two states had been voting. Maybe even DC because the Democrats that year had the segregationist vote tied up.
  

1956 was a pretty good year for Democrats downballot.

Definately, 1956 was in no way an embrace of the GOP at all. On wikipedia (take it for what its worth) its says that it was primarily a vote for the status quo. They kept the Dems in control of the House and the Senate (which they had gained in 1954) while reelecting Ike in a landslide.

Ike's performance seems to me to be the last hurrah of the ancient Civil War Political map with a lot of his voters coming from legacy voting by people who really were Democrats and voted such on the rest of the ballot.

OK -- it wasn't that bad for down-ticket Democrats. But it was a horrible performance by Adlai Stevenson. Maybe no Democrat had a chance against Ike.

Should approval ratings for the President stay around 55%, then the political map of the 2012 Presidential election  could look almost like an inverse of 1952 or 1956. Tellingly, Democrat Barack Obama won 365 electoral votes -- but won only one state, that barely (North Carolina) that Dwight Eisenhower won in neither 1952 or 1956.   
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« Reply #7873 on: May 09, 2011, 11:39:18 pm »

The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll backs up Gallup and Quinnipiac:

52% Approve
41% Disapprove

Favorable Rating:

54% Somewhat/Very Positive
31% Somewhat/Very Negative
14% Neutral

If President Obama runs for re-election in the year 2012, do you think you will probably vote for President Obama or probably vote for the Republican candidate?

45% Probably vote for President Obama
30% Probably vote for Republican candidate
  4% Vote for other party
16% Depends on who opponent is

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/11192_MAY_NBC_Poll.pdf
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anvi
anvikshiki
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« Reply #7874 on: May 10, 2011, 07:31:24 am »
« Edited: May 10, 2011, 07:35:59 am by anvikshiki »

I can't resist making a historical observation about presidential job approval ratings as based on foreign and security policy successes and failures.  I realize that many different factors play into presidential approval numbers, and I also realize that the suggested analogy of the following comparison is not perfect.  But I still find the comparison striking enough.

Oct. 1983: Reagen approvals after attack on Marines in Lebanon:  44%
Jan. 1991: Bush 41 approvals after winning Gulf War:  90%

Sept. 2001: Bush 43 approvals after Sept. 11 attacks:  91%
May 2011: Obama approvals after killing of bin Laden:  52%

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