|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 06, 2020, 01:21:42 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 309 310 311 312 313 [314] 315 316 317 318 319 ... 410 Print
Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1031141 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,753
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7825 on: May 04, 2011, 02:32:37 pm »

PPP's weekend poll showed

46% Approve
50% Disapprove

http://dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/4/28

This weekend, they will have 2 national polls (1 of their own incl. 2012 matchups and 1 for the DailyKos) and they will also poll Virginia this weekend.

So we might get a good picture of what the bump will look like and how it translates into support for Obama in a critical swing state.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/05/voting-time.html
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,525
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7826 on: May 04, 2011, 04:16:30 pm »

Gallup:

Approve: 50 (+3)
Disapprove: 42 (-2)

Hardly earth-shattering.

That's about a +5 shift since Sunday.
Logged
Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7827 on: May 05, 2011, 07:27:12 am »

Gallup:

Approve: 50 (+3)
Disapprove: 42 (-2)

Hardly earth-shattering.

That's about a +5 shift since Sunday.

Yes, but its hardly earth-shattering.  He's had bigger swings before (though it certainly reflects a gain from before the announcement).
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7828 on: May 05, 2011, 09:45:16 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 51%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 35%, -2.

Scott's analysis seems to echo mine from yesterday.  It should be noted, however that Obama's Strongly Disapprove number is the lowest since July 1, 2009.  That is where there seems to be movement.

Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,336
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7829 on: May 05, 2011, 09:46:51 am »

He needs to admit thats he's just a Republican operative.
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,447
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7830 on: May 05, 2011, 10:17:54 am »

I was one of those predicting just a small and temporary bounce, but those Rasmussen numbers seem quite ridiculous.
Logged
Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7831 on: May 05, 2011, 10:31:47 am »

Scott's analysis seems to echo mine from yesterday.  It should be noted, however that Obama's Strongly Disapprove number is the lowest since July 1, 2009.  That is where there seems to be movement.

To give you an example of what that means, his approval index was still on positive ground back then.

Also, this does make sense.  The Consensus here is that Obama didn't totally mess this up, which is probably the best a President is going to get on a messy foreign policy achievement ("Messy" meaning anything where someone gets killed).

However, I think the more lasting political issue will wind up being the aftermath.  There are emerging stories that conflict with the White house message on this, which raises more than a few questions on both what happened and what was supposed to happen (though those are mostly from the Left rather than the Right)
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,422
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7832 on: May 05, 2011, 10:52:28 am »

New Quinnipiac:

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 40%

Approval is +6% and disapproval is -8% from before the killing.

The poll shows a huge positive shift among men but not much of a change among women.

It does look like the bounce is going to be a lot smaller than I initially thought it would be... still kind of early to say for sure though.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1596&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,447
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7833 on: May 05, 2011, 12:07:56 pm »

Gallup:

Approve: 52 (+2)
Disapprove: 40 (-2)

All three days of sampling now occured after the death of OBL.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,541
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7834 on: May 05, 2011, 12:12:23 pm »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147437/Obama-Approval-Rallies-Six-Points-Bin-Laden-Death.aspx

Among Republicans, Obama's approval has increased by 12; among independents, by 9; among Democrats, none at all.
Logged
Reaganfan
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,085
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7835 on: May 05, 2011, 01:12:27 pm »

http://www.gallup.com/poll/147437/Obama-Approval-Rallies-Six-Points-Bin-Laden-Death.aspx

Among Republicans, Obama's approval has increased by 12; among independents, by 9; among Democrats, none at all.


Wow.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 43,422
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7836 on: May 05, 2011, 01:18:05 pm »

There isn't exactly a lot of room for improvement among Democrats. The 19% that disapprove of him are probably mostly Dixiecrats who think he was born in Kenya and leftists who are unlikely to be impressed with his ability to murder people overseas.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7837 on: May 05, 2011, 01:19:20 pm »

New Quinnipiac:

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 40%

Approval is +6% and disapproval is -8% from before the killing.

The poll shows a huge positive shift among men but not much of a change among women.

It does look like the bounce is going to be a lot smaller than I initially thought it would be... still kind of early to say for sure though.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1596&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0


It may take some time to sink in. It could be that many people already thought that Osama Bin Laden was already dead because he didn't offer any video of himself.
Logged
Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,221
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7838 on: May 05, 2011, 01:57:48 pm »

I was one of those predicting just a small and temporary bounce, but those Rasmussen numbers seem quite ridiculous.

Obama's had a big runup in the Ras poll in the week PRIOR to the OBL killing...this runup is already reflected in the numbers.  so Ras is not saying Obama has not improved, it is say Obama's improvement was already taking place in the week prior to the killing.

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,753
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7839 on: May 05, 2011, 02:23:34 pm »

Kansas (SurveyUSA):

42% Approve
53% Disapprove

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a6600ae0-099f-41a5-b64b-acd39f1ccac0
Logged
izixs
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,126
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.31, S: -6.51

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7840 on: May 05, 2011, 03:42:12 pm »

I was one of those predicting just a small and temporary bounce, but those Rasmussen numbers seem quite ridiculous.

Obama's had a big runup in the Ras poll in the week PRIOR to the OBL killing...this runup is already reflected in the numbers.  so Ras is not saying Obama has not improved, it is say Obama's improvement was already taking place in the week prior to the killing.



So... the people that Rassy was talking to then knew Obama was going to give the order that resulted in bin Laden's death?!? I think we need to have Rassy call them back to ask them about the lottery, who's going to win the world series, and who's going to win the 2028 election.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7841 on: May 05, 2011, 04:35:08 pm »

I was one of those predicting just a small and temporary bounce, but those Rasmussen numbers seem quite ridiculous.

Obama's had a big runup in the Ras poll in the week PRIOR to the OBL killing...this runup is already reflected in the numbers.  so Ras is not saying Obama has not improved, it is say Obama's improvement was already taking place in the week prior to the killing.



Epic fail as an explanation. That run-up was more likely the result of the President's swift and effective response to the tornadoes. People in the Midwest hear about spring tornadoes in Dixie in the spring and ask whether they are next. Americans used to take disaster management for granted -- until Hurricane Katrina. Now they don't. Maybe they can again. Something is different now -- or back to normal. Take your choice.
Logged
Saxwsylvania
Van Der Blub
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,535


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7842 on: May 05, 2011, 04:59:48 pm »

I was one of those predicting just a small and temporary bounce, but those Rasmussen numbers seem quite ridiculous.

Obama's had a big runup in the Ras poll in the week PRIOR to the OBL killing...this runup is already reflected in the numbers.  so Ras is not saying Obama has not improved, it is say Obama's improvement was already taking place in the week prior to the killing.



Epic fail as an explanation. That run-up was more likely the result of the President's swift and effective response to the tornadoes. People in the Midwest hear about spring tornadoes in Dixie in the spring and ask whether they are next. Americans used to take disaster management for granted -- until Hurricane Katrina. Now they don't. Maybe they can again. Something is different now -- or back to normal. Take your choice.

And here I was thinking the movement was the result of the President's swift and effective exhibition of his birth certificate.
Logged
Penelope
Scifiguy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,525
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7843 on: May 05, 2011, 05:29:45 pm »

New Quinnipiac:

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 40%

Approval is +6% and disapproval is -8% from before the killing.

The poll shows a huge positive shift among men but not much of a change among women.

It does look like the bounce is going to be a lot smaller than I initially thought it would be... still kind of early to say for sure though.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1596&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0


The way the polling seems to be going, it seems like he could reasonably be in the upper fifties by tomorrow or Saturday.
Logged
Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7844 on: May 05, 2011, 08:55:51 pm »

New Quinnipiac:

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 40%

Approval is +6% and disapproval is -8% from before the killing.

The poll shows a huge positive shift among men but not much of a change among women.

It does look like the bounce is going to be a lot smaller than I initially thought it would be... still kind of early to say for sure though.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1596&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0


The way the polling seems to be going, it seems like he could reasonably be in the upper fifties by tomorrow or Saturday.

Really?  I'm pretty sure that he's basically already peaked out now and will start sliding back down within the next few days.  I mean, who's going to approve of him tomorrow more than they approve of him today?  Its not like good news keeps rolling in--on the contrary, it looks like the whole issue is going to get significantly worse for Obama.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7845 on: May 05, 2011, 11:36:04 pm »
« Edited: May 07, 2011, 08:57:46 am by J. J. »

I was one of those predicting just a small and temporary bounce, but those Rasmussen numbers seem quite ridiculous.

Obama's had a big runup in the Ras poll in the week PRIOR to the OBL killing...this runup is already reflected in the numbers.  so Ras is not saying Obama has not improved, it is say Obama's improvement was already taking place in the week prior to the killing.



I would not call it a "runup."  Those numbers were all within an MOE.  His pre OBL numbers were off their lows, but also off their highs.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,914
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7846 on: May 06, 2011, 08:37:29 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 34%, -1.

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,753
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7847 on: May 06, 2011, 09:02:06 am »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 34%, -1.

JJ, are you able to see cross-tabs from Rasmussen ?

Such as the support for Obama among Democrats, Republicans and Independents ?

It would be interesting to see the numbers because of Rasmussen's strong GOP sample.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 52,753
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7848 on: May 07, 2011, 12:08:15 am »

Hawaii:

64% of registered voters in Hawaii approve of Obama's job performance, the automated telephone survey of 1,014 registered voters in Hawaii found. That figure is essentially unchanged from three previous Civil Beat surveys in the past 12 months. The latest poll was conducted on May 3 and 4 by Merriman River Group and has a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

About the poll: Merriman River Group (MRG), surveyed 1,014 registered voters on May 3 and May 4 using interactive voice response technology (touch-tone polling). The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error indicates that in 95 percent of samples of this size, the results will be within the margin of error of the actual percentage in the full population of likely voters. Merriman River Group, founded in 1998, is a full-service consulting organization specializing in election management, opinion research and communication. Since 2008, MRG has collected national survey data for the National Leadership Index conducted by the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School.

http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2011/05/06/10787-civil-beat-poll-bin-ladens-death-doesnt-lift-obamas-hawaii-approval-rating/
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,081
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7849 on: May 07, 2011, 03:45:06 am »
« Edited: May 07, 2011, 08:18:33 am by pbrower2a »

Hawaii, by a poster with which I have no familiarity. 64% approval. Basically approval. Obama approval in Hawaii is likely close to the maximum anyway.
 


Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)

<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)Sad

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!




           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54




44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.




             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 6
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

Logged
Pages: 1 ... 309 310 311 312 313 [314] 315 316 317 318 319 ... 410 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines