The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

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Nate Silver has SurveyUSA at #1.

So even if you want to slam Rasmussen, SurveyUSA's numbers were worse for Obama because they polled his favorable rating.  Of course, some of the Republican hacks here don't like SurveyUSA.

Quinnipiac actually narrowly beat them.
It's funny how PPP had a Republican bias. Of course I'm sure Republicans will still mention how they're for DailyKos.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

[Penelope]

Key:


Below 40%: 60% Red
40-44% Approval: 40% Red  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
45-49% with Dissaproval Lower: 50% Yellow
50%: 10% Yellow (really white)
50-55%: 30% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?


Out-dated poll = 30% Orange

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +3.

[Zarn]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, u.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +3.

Same old story...

[Tender Branson]

Here are the Obama approval ratings from CNN's exit polls:

AZ: 40-59
AR: 37-62
CA: 54-44
CO: 48-51
CT: 54-45
DE: 57-43
FL: 45-54
HI: 67-33
IL: 53-46
IN: 37-62
IA: 43-56
KY: 36-63
LA: 40-60
MO: 40-59
NV: 45-52
NH: 46-54
NY: 56-43
OH: 42-57
OR: 52-47
PA: 47-53
SC: 43-56
TX: 38-61
VT: 60-39
WA: 51-49
WV: 30-69
WI: 46-53

US: 45-54

* states in green have equal or higher approval than nationwide

Map:

[Poundingtherock]

Is West virginia now in a category with Utah?

I suspect a good percentage, perhaps around 15% of those who disapprove of him, would vote for him in WV.

I have a tough time seeing any Democrat fail to get 40% in West Virginia.

It looks like SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have been validated as to Obama's numbers in Missouri and Indiana.  I recall that a lot of people questioned how his numbers in Missouri could look like his numbers in the deep south but that's what the exit poll showed.

[Tender Branson]

Here is the new map incl. recent (October) polls from PPP and Rasmussen:



I couldn´t find any October polls for the grey states.

Rasmussen released some states only to Premium members, so if anyone with premium access could look up the latest Obama October figures in Michigan etc. it would be great.

[Tender Branson]

BTW, PPP & Rasmussen show different results in MN:

Rasmussen (Oct. 20): 50-49 approve

PPP (Oct. 27-29): 43-49 disapprove

[Tender Branson]

It looks like SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have been validated as to Obama's numbers in Missouri and Indiana.  I recall that a lot of people questioned how his numbers in Missouri could look like his numbers in the deep south but that's what the exit poll showed.

Well, Obama is @ 45% US-wide and @ 40% in MO, a 5-point difference.

In 2008, the difference was 3.7% (52.9 to 49.2)

Missouri is drifting away from the Democrats since at least the early 90s.

[Tender Branson]

This is how I currently see the 2012 playing field based on the assumption that Obama can increase his national approval rating to 50%, which will normally also increase his approvals to around 50 in the green states mentioned above in the Exit Polls:



SC seems to be a wild-card. Obama could have done much better in 2008 if he actually campaigned in the state and poured money into it. The weak result of Haley this year is also not good news for the Republicans, especially if Sarah Palin is the candidate. It also shows surprisingly good approval numbers for Obama in recent surveys which are higher than in GA and NC for example.

ME has wild results too, with PPP showing Obama with negative approvals and Rasmussen with positive approvals. Considering the good result in 2008, I´ll still rate it as lean Obama.

[Poundingtherock]

Keep in mind though that Shaheen is a much stronger and better candidate than Obama in SC.

A lot of people who would vote for Shaheen over Haley wouldn't vote for Obama over Palin.  yes, Haley performed poorly but that may just be that the guy is a stud in SC.

Look at the 2004 Alaska Senate race.  A lot of people who voted Tony Knowles over Lisa Murkowski voted for Bush over Kerry. (to be perfectly honest, I'm not sure who I would have voted for between Knowles and Murkowski in 2004 if I were an alaskan given how much of a b*tch Murkowski is).

[Tender Branson]

Keep in mind though that Shaheen is a much stronger and better candidate than Obama in SC.

A lot of people who would vote for Shaheen over Haley wouldn't vote for Obama over Palin.  yes, Haley performed poorly but that may just be that the guy is a stud in SC.

Look at the 2004 Alaska Senate race.  A lot of people who voted Tony Knowles over Lisa Murkowski voted for Bush over Kerry. (to be perfectly honest, I'm not sure who I would have voted for between Knowles and Murkowski in 2004 if I were an alaskan given how much of a b*tch Murkowski is).

Yeah, but the approval polls out of SC now seem to indicate that Obama seems to have lost almost NO ground with Whites in that state. Obama got 26% in 2008, Sheheen got 29%. If Obama could push the White share to 30% in 2012 and bring 30% Blacks to the polls, then SC could end up close. He would also have to campaign there and throw a couple million dollars into the state.

[Poundingtherock]

It's not plausible for the black percentage of the SC electorate to be 5% larger in 2012 than in 2008.  25-26% is likely the high water mark.

Shaheen's performance probably is the best Obama can hope for in SC and again, he still lost by 4 to Haley.  Haley had some weaknesses but those weaknesses would have gone away had she faced Obama instead of a strong candidate like Shaheen.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 53%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, +1.



[/quote]

[Zarn]

New Jersey
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 50%

Used to be 47% for both.


Quinnipiac
http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2010/11/poll-watch-quinnipiac-new-jersey.html

[Ben Romney]

PPP :

PRESIDENT – CALIFORNIA (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
Generic Republican (R) 44%

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (PPP)
Generic Republican (R) 50%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 45%

PRESIDENT – CONNECTICUT (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Generic Republican (R) 42%

PRESIDENT – ILLINOIS (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Generic Republican (R) 42%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP)
Generic Republican (R) 54%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 40%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (PPP)
Generic Republican (R) 52%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 42%

[The Trump Virus]

Good news for the Republicans in NH and PA (not so much in CO) as that's a pretty big gap between Generic Republian and Obama.  Obviously the #'s would tighten if actual names were dropped, but I really doubt it would be enough to put Obama in the lead in those 2 states.  Not that it matters much right now anyway.....

[Eraserhead]

PPP :

PRESIDENT – CALIFORNIA (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 51%
Generic Republican (R) 44%

PRESIDENT – COLORADO (PPP)
Generic Republican (R) 50%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 45%

PRESIDENT – CONNECTICUT (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 50%
Generic Republican (R) 42%

PRESIDENT – ILLINOIS (PPP)
Barack Obama (D-inc) 49%
Generic Republican (R) 42%

PRESIDENT – NEW HAMPSHIRE (PPP)
Generic Republican (R) 54%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 40%

PRESIDENT – PENNSYLVANIA (PPP)
Generic Republican (R) 52%
Barack Obama (D-inc) 42%

If Generic Republican snatches the nomination, Obama is doomed.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, -1.

[Ben Romney]

Gallup: Obama at 44%

[Zarn]

Can you put the disapproval for the numbers as well? Some people put more stock in the disapprovals, and some put equal stock in both. Thank you.

A: 44% -2
D: 48% +2

[Poundingtherock]

I'll be honest...Nevada and Colorado seem to be trending left.

I'm not certain Reid doesn't also beat Lowden and Tark or Bennett doesn't also beat Norton.

It looks like the West in general is moving to the left while the Midwest is moving heavily to the right.

The Northeast and South are what they are but there are some bright spots in both areas for the GOP and Dems (south carolina in the south and new hampshire in the north).

[5280]

Anybody going to make an updated map for 2012?