The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1108619 times)
theseoguys
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« Reply #6500 on: October 14, 2010, 08:59:55 AM »

I am always amazed of the 80% of people who are back and forth on the fence about their vote, depending on whether or not they 'like' the candidate.
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Bahia
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« Reply #6501 on: October 14, 2010, 09:31:07 AM »

Very interesting. Best regards from Bahia    
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The Trump Virus
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« Reply #6502 on: October 14, 2010, 11:16:20 AM »

I can't imagine them making much $ off that.....why charge?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6503 on: October 14, 2010, 11:18:47 AM »

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.
Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?

     Yes, Rasmussen now only releases state-by-state approval polls to its premium members.

There are plenty of approval polls coming out that are not Rasmussen.  They just don't show the results he wants.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6504 on: October 14, 2010, 11:21:21 AM »

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.
Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?

     Yes, Rasmussen now only releases state-by-state approval polls to its premium members.
That sucks.  I wonder who would pay just for poll data (unless that was related to your job)?

     Sam Spade, evidently. Tongue

In 2008, I did the same thing - paid the last couple of months for premium data and then dropped the subscription after the election.
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #6505 on: October 14, 2010, 04:35:26 PM »

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.
Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?

     Yes, Rasmussen now only releases state-by-state approval polls to its premium members.

There are plenty of approval polls coming out that are not Rasmussen.  They just don't show the results he wants.
IMO, Rasmussen is one of the most reputable polling sources there is.  What are you using?
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J. J.
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« Reply #6506 on: October 15, 2010, 08:54:22 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, +1.

This the lowest Approve number in the last five weeks.

It is probably a strong anti-Obama sample moving through the system.  If so, it should drop out tomorrow.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6507 on: October 15, 2010, 09:55:32 AM »

Are we no longer tracking state polling here?

I am.  pbrower2a just gave up because he doesn't like the results.
Didn't he say the source for his polls was now charging money, so he had to quit?

     Yes, Rasmussen now only releases state-by-state approval polls to its premium members.

There are plenty of approval polls coming out that are not Rasmussen.  They just don't show the results he wants.
IMO, Rasmussen is one of the most reputable polling sources there is.  What are you using?

Let's see - Quinnipiac always includes approval.  So does PPP.  As noticed, so does CNN/Time now (didn't before).  So does Suffolk in all states outside MA.  So does the Fox News/Rasmussen.  I'm missing some others, but you get my drift.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6508 on: October 15, 2010, 10:30:35 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, -1.

Disapprove 56%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 46%, +1.

This the lowest Approve number in the last five weeks.

It is probably a strong anti-Obama sample moving through the system.  If so, it should drop out tomorrow.

That's 5 days straight of decreasing number for Obama, so if it does represent bad samples, odds are it won't drop off much tomorrow, but will drop off more Sunday or Monday.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6509 on: October 15, 2010, 10:34:46 AM »

I see about as much going on in the poll internals as I saw when folks were talking about a material Obama rise.

In other words, yawn...
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J. J.
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« Reply #6510 on: October 16, 2010, 08:58:23 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, -1.

It didn't bounce up.  This could be a move away from Obama.
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change08
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« Reply #6511 on: October 16, 2010, 10:56:41 AM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, -1.

It didn't bounce up.  This could be a move away from Obama.

Strongly ratings changed though. I'd wait until tomorrow before we call it.
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Dgov
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« Reply #6512 on: October 16, 2010, 12:27:48 PM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, -1.

It didn't bounce up.  This could be a move away from Obama.

I'd wait until Monday at the latest to make that assumption.  No change means that the sample entering the system is approximately equal to the one leaving, and the sample that just left was more pro-Obama than this total.

In other words, this suggests that today's poll was better for Obama's than yesterday's, it's just that the 3-day average helps kind of mask that.

Also, this would represent Obama moving back down to his August numbers rather than falling to new lows.  In other words, his September/October "Recovery" has faded out.
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J. J.
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« Reply #6513 on: October 16, 2010, 01:00:21 PM »



Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 43%, u.

Disapprove 56%, u.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45%, -1.

It didn't bounce up.  This could be a move away from Obama.

Strongly ratings changed though. I'd wait until tomorrow before we call it.

Optimal word is "could."

I'd rather wait to early next week.  Smiley  I'm in agreement with Dgov.

Remember, they use an average of the last three days.  If Wednesday's sample was overly anti-Obama, that would give us Wednesday, Thursday and Friday polls showing that overly anti-Obama sample.

It doesn't look like this is a bad sample problem, but we should give it a few more days to see a trend.
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Umengus
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« Reply #6514 on: October 16, 2010, 01:40:49 PM »

The last 4 polls (rasmussen, gallup, fox and ipsos) give the same result: 43 %. (but with different populations: adult, RV or likely voters...)

For some weeks, Rasmussen is the reputable pollster who has given the best result for Obama.

I don't understand how it's possible that gallup gives 43 % with adults and Rasmussen 47 % with likely voters. Adults are more pro-obama that likely voters... can you explain that ? because it's more than "a bad sample".
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Dgov
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« Reply #6515 on: October 16, 2010, 04:03:35 PM »

The last 4 polls (rasmussen, gallup, fox and ipsos) give the same result: 43 %. (but with different populations: adult, RV or likely voters...)

For some weeks, Rasmussen is the reputable pollster who has given the best result for Obama.

I don't understand how it's possible that gallup gives 43 % with adults and Rasmussen 47 % with likely voters. Adults are more pro-obama that likely voters... can you explain that ? because it's more than "a bad sample".

Part of it is probably different  "Likely" voter criteria.  Part of it might also be the different numbers for "Undecideds"--Getting 43% in a Rasmussen Poll is very different than getting 43% in a Gallup poll or 44% in the CBS poll, given that Rasmussen has far less undecideds (56% Disapproval in Ras poll vs 48% in Gallup poll and 45% for CBS).  Part of it might be that Rasmussen asks for "Stongly approve and Somewhat approve" rather than just approve or disapprove, which might mike some people who were considering "undecided" say somewhat approve instead.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6516 on: October 17, 2010, 07:56:45 AM »

Today (Rasmussen):

47% Approve (+4)
52% Disapprove (-4)

Huh
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change08
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« Reply #6517 on: October 17, 2010, 09:22:49 AM »

Today (Rasmussen):

47% Approve (+4)
52% Disapprove (-4)

Huh

Cheesy
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Sbane
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« Reply #6518 on: October 17, 2010, 10:23:20 AM »

Today (Rasmussen):

47% Approve (+4)
52% Disapprove (-4)

Huh

A bad sample dropped off? Anyways, it seems like Obama's median numbers might have gone up just a bit from the summer.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #6519 on: October 17, 2010, 11:14:49 AM »

Today (Rasmussen):

47% Approve (+4)
52% Disapprove (-4)

Huh

A bad sample dropped off? Anyways, it seems like Obama's median numbers might have gone up just a bit from the summer.

It would seem this is the case.  He's probably right around 47-48% in reality right now.  He's certainly moved off of the lows of 41-43%.  It would make sense considering the NYC Mosque and Gulf oil spill stories were not positive at all for him and for the first time he's actually trying to boast about the Democrats' accomplishments in Congress. 

The midterms should be very interesting. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #6520 on: October 17, 2010, 11:56:43 AM »


Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +4.

Disapprove 52%, -4.

"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -2.

Bab sample someplace?
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Sbane
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« Reply #6521 on: October 17, 2010, 01:10:57 PM »

Today (Rasmussen):

47% Approve (+4)
52% Disapprove (-4)

Huh

A bad sample dropped off? Anyways, it seems like Obama's median numbers might have gone up just a bit from the summer.

It would seem this is the case.  He's probably right around 47-48% in reality right now.  He's certainly moved off of the lows of 41-43%.  It would make sense considering the NYC Mosque and Gulf oil spill stories were not positive at all for him and for the first time he's actually trying to boast about the Democrats' accomplishments in Congress. 

The midterms should be very interesting. 

Just the fact that more Democrats are getting interested in the election now might be enough to explain Obama's movement. Note that this movement is only observable on Rasmussen and not the other polls, most of whom are of adults or registered voters. Since this is a likely voter poll, with the dampening of the enthusiasm gap since the summer, Obama's numbers have improved as well.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6522 on: October 17, 2010, 01:19:45 PM »

Gallup: 44/48
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Penelope
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« Reply #6523 on: October 17, 2010, 04:47:02 PM »

If someone could post statewide polling, or direct me to them, I could make some maps again.
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Poundingtherock
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« Reply #6524 on: October 17, 2010, 07:06:42 PM »

Washington Registered voters
http://www.washingtonpoll.org/results/oct15_2010.pdf

Obama: 52/45 favorable/unfavorable

A 45% unfavorable rating in Washington gets Obama to around 50% unfavorables nationwide with registered voters.

I like to cite favorable/unfavorable to dispute the liberal narrative that people still like Obama personally but only disapprove of his actions.
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