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March 08, 2021, 02:11:26 AM
Talk Elections
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Election Archive
2012 Elections
The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread (Read 1060209 times)
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,692
Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3825 on:
February 11, 2010, 12:11:53 PM »
Missouri(Rasmussen)
Approve 40%
Disapprove 59%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/missouri/toplines/toplines_2010_missouri_senate_february_10_2010
Texas(PPP)
Approve 33%
Disapprove 61%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_211.pdf
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
ConservativeIllini
Rookie
Posts: 104
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3826 on:
February 11, 2010, 12:23:04 PM »
Good news to start my day, thanks Rowan!
Logged
GOP732
Rookie
Posts: 111
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3827 on:
February 11, 2010, 12:32:36 PM »
Quote from: ConservativeIllini on February 11, 2010, 12:23:04 PM
Good news to start my day, thanks Rowan!
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,044
Political Matrix
E: -0.84, S: -3.04
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3828 on:
February 11, 2010, 12:58:38 PM »
So much for Obama being competitive in Texas, at least right now, eh?
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,344
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3829 on:
February 11, 2010, 01:01:23 PM »
Quote from: Senator Duke on February 11, 2010, 12:58:38 PM
So much for Obama being competitive in Texas, at least right now, eh?
The age wave will carry him through
Logged
ConservativeIllini
Rookie
Posts: 104
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3830 on:
February 11, 2010, 01:05:10 PM »
Quote from: Senator Duke on February 11, 2010, 12:58:38 PM
So much for Obama being competitive in Texas, at least right now, eh?
I don't think anyone, even the biggest partisan, plans on Barack being competitive in Texas, at least for the near future. It just isn't going to happen.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,298
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3831 on:
February 11, 2010, 01:11:51 PM »
«
Edited:
February 11, 2010, 04:50:06 PM
by
pbrower2a »
Texas not competitive; Missouri has dropped to the fringe of competitiveness (if not dropping a category). New Hampshire makes a marginal change but drops a category.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,692
Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3832 on:
February 11, 2010, 03:33:53 PM »
New Hampshire(Rasmussen)
Approve 49%
Disapprove 51%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_hampshire/toplines/toplines_new_hampshire_senate_february_10_2010
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
xavier110
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,446
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3833 on:
February 11, 2010, 03:50:08 PM »
LOL, I'm not really sure how Ohio and New Hampshire can have even approval ratings when Obama is -10 in Pennsylvania, but okay.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,692
Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3834 on:
February 11, 2010, 05:28:54 PM »
Pennsylvania(Rasmussen)
Approve 43%
Disapprove 56%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/pennsylvania/toplines_2010_pennsylvania_governor_election_february_10_2010
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
GOP732
Rookie
Posts: 111
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3835 on:
February 11, 2010, 07:27:19 PM »
What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,298
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3836 on:
February 11, 2010, 07:30:51 PM »
Quote from: GOP732 on February 11, 2010, 07:27:19 PM
What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?
Do you see any particular reason for states to be trending away from Obama?
Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,941
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3837 on:
February 11, 2010, 07:41:29 PM »
Quote from: GOP732 on February 11, 2010, 07:27:19 PM
What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?
I have a feeling that Obama's bottomed out (for now) more green will crop up.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
Posts: 3,820
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3838 on:
February 11, 2010, 08:35:47 PM »
Quote from: change08 on February 11, 2010, 07:41:29 PM
Quote from: GOP732 on February 11, 2010, 07:27:19 PM
What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?
I have a feeling that Obama's bottomed out (for now) more green will crop up.
Not much is getting done and his proposals have been angering independents. Also, unemployment bites.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3839 on:
February 11, 2010, 08:48:33 PM »
Quote from: change08 on February 11, 2010, 07:41:29 PM
Quote from: GOP732 on February 11, 2010, 07:27:19 PM
What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?
I have a feeling that Obama's bottomed out (for now) more green will crop up.
On Rasmussen's national poll, Obama's numbers have been reasonably stable. Even taking into account the SOTU bounce, his numbers have been within a 7 point range.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
Posts: 27,562
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3840 on:
February 11, 2010, 09:01:55 PM »
As I said before, there's a lot of congestion between his 2008 number 53% and the mid-40s (this translates slightly higher in an adults poll FWIW).
It ain't gonna be taken down overnight - though the fact that the 53% was sliced through so easily last year is not the greatest sign for the long-term.
Logged
Vepres
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,032
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3841 on:
February 11, 2010, 09:11:38 PM »
Quote from: GOP732 on February 11, 2010, 07:27:19 PM
What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?
I suspect Minnesota or Oregon. New Mexico has a large Hispanic population, which hasn't trended away from Obama as fast as whites, so it could be, but I doubt it.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
Posts: 57,496
Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3842 on:
February 12, 2010, 01:39:25 AM »
Michigan (Rasmussen)
53% Approve
46% Disapprove
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/michigan/election_2010_michigan_governor
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,298
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3843 on:
February 12, 2010, 06:15:25 AM »
«
Edited:
February 12, 2010, 02:10:06 PM
by
pbrower2a »
Quote from: TrueRepublicIran on February 11, 2010, 08:35:47 PM
Quote from: change08 on February 11, 2010, 07:41:29 PM
Quote from: GOP732 on February 11, 2010, 07:27:19 PM
What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?
I have a feeling that Obama's bottomed out (for now) more green will crop up.
Not much is getting done and his proposals have been angering independents. Also, unemployment bites.
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 12, 2010, 01:39:25 AM
Michigan (Rasmussen)
53% Approve
46% Disapprove
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/michigan/election_2010_michigan_governor
In few states does unemployment bite so hard as in Michigan. The Governorship is up for grabs because of the wretched economy. Michigan is one of those that I was most looking for, and the result is a surprise. I would have expected Michigan to go the same direction as Pennsylvania.
A comment on Texas: late in 2009, states seemed to be reverting toward a mean as polarization of approval ratings seemed to be approaching a mean. Texas and Michigan could be showing that when President Obama gets much exposure as a speaker, he demonstrates why people voted so decisively for him in Michigan and so decisively against him in Texas in 2008.
Key:
<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50% Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green
Months:
A - January G - July
B - February H - August
C - March I - September
D - April J - October
E - May K - November
F - June L - December
S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%... let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided.
Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.
Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,692
Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3844 on:
February 12, 2010, 08:17:46 AM »
North Dakota(Rasmussen)
Approve 39%
Disapprove 58%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_north_dakota_senate_february_9_10_2010
Michigan updated as well.
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,298
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3845 on:
February 12, 2010, 08:58:37 AM »
Quote from: TrueRepublicIran on February 11, 2010, 08:35:47 PM
Quote from: change08 on February 11, 2010, 07:41:29 PM
Quote from: GOP732 on February 11, 2010, 07:27:19 PM
What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?
I have a feeling that Obama's bottomed out (for now) more green will crop up.
Not much is getting done and his proposals have been angering independents. Also, unemployment bites.
Quote from: Tender Branson on February 12, 2010, 01:39:25 AM
Michigan (Rasmussen)
53% Approve
46% Disapprove
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/michigan/election_2010_michigan_governor
In few states does unemployment bite so hard as in Michigan. The Governorship is up for grabs because of the wretched economy. Michigan is one of those that I was most looking for, and the result is a surprise. I would have expected Michigan to go the same direction as Pennsylvania.
North Dakota updated, too, and even with the category change, it's not a significant move.
Key:
<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50% Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green
Months:
A - January G - July
B - February H - August
C - March I - September
D - April J - October
E - May K - November
F - June L - December
S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%... let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided.
Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.
Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.
A comment on Texas: late in 2009, states seemed to be reverting toward a mean as polarization of approval ratings seemed to be approaching a mean. Texas and Michigan could be showing that when President Obama gets much exposure as a politician, he demonstrates why people voted so decisively for him in Michigan and so decisively against him in Texas in 2008.
Logged
Zarn
YaBB God
Posts: 3,820
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3846 on:
February 12, 2010, 09:03:54 AM »
Who doesn't know about Michigan's unemployment? The problem with them is that many are unapologetically liberal. I hardly call 53% overwhelming support.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 24,298
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3847 on:
February 12, 2010, 09:46:46 AM »
Some speculation on why President Obama isn't doing so well in polls in Pennsylvania:
The state has a contested Democratic primary for a US Senate seat. President Obama has nothing to gain and much to lose by choosing one Democratic candidate for the Senate over the other, and has stayed away from the state so that he can stay out of the race. Once the nomination is decided, President Obama will appear on occasion in Pennsylvania with the Democratic nominee for the Senate, and as Pennsylvanians see Obama the campaigner again, his approval rating will go back over 50%.
Logged
J. J.
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 32,914
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3848 on:
February 12, 2010, 10:01:41 AM »
Rasmussen's Obama numbers:
Approve:
47%
Disapprove:
52%
Basically, since August 2, 2009, Obama's numbers have been 47% to 52.5%, +/- 3.5 points, on Rasmussen.
Excepting the SOTU bounce, and a slump right before Christmas, his numbers have been within a 47% to 53% within a +/- 3.0 point range since November 17, 2008, on Rasmussen.
I'd call that very stable, and say that they are very close to today's numbers.
Logged
Rowan
RowanBrandon
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 6,692
Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 4.70
Re: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
«
Reply #3849 on:
February 12, 2010, 01:26:24 PM »
Louisiana(Rasmussen)
Approve 37%
Disapprove 63%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/louisiana/toplines/toplines_2010_louisiana_senate_february_10_2010
30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green
Logged
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