The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Rowan]

Missouri(Rasmussen)
Approve 40%
Disapprove 59%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/missouri/toplines/toplines_2010_missouri_senate_february_10_2010

Texas(PPP)
Approve 33%
Disapprove 61%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TX_211.pdf

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[ConservativeIllini]

Good news to start my day, thanks Rowan!

[GOP732]

Good news to start my day, thanks Rowan!

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

So much for Obama being competitive in Texas, at least right now, eh?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

So much for Obama being competitive in Texas, at least right now, eh?

The age wave will carry him through

[ConservativeIllini]

So much for Obama being competitive in Texas, at least right now, eh?

I don't think anyone, even the biggest partisan, plans on Barack being competitive in Texas, at least for the near future.  It just isn't going to happen.

[pbrower2a]

Texas not competitive; Missouri has dropped to the fringe of competitiveness (if not dropping a category). New Hampshire makes a marginal change but drops a category.

[Rowan]

New Hampshire(Rasmussen)
Approve 49%
Disapprove 51%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/new_hampshire/toplines/toplines_new_hampshire_senate_february_10_2010

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[xavier110]

LOL, I'm not really sure how Ohio and New Hampshire can have even approval ratings when Obama is -10 in Pennsylvania, but okay.

[Rowan]

Pennsylvania(Rasmussen)
Approve 43%
Disapprove 56%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/pennsylvania/toplines_2010_pennsylvania_governor_election_february_10_2010

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[GOP732]

What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?

[pbrower2a]

What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?

Do you see any particular reason for states to be trending away from Obama?

[You kip if you want to...]

What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?

I have a feeling that Obama's bottomed out (for now) more green will crop up.

[Zarn]

What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?

I have a feeling that Obama's bottomed out (for now) more green will crop up.

Not much is getting done and his proposals have been angering independents. Also, unemployment bites.

[J. J.]

What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?

I have a feeling that Obama's bottomed out (for now) more green will crop up.

On Rasmussen's national poll, Obama's numbers have been reasonably stable.  Even taking into  account the SOTU bounce, his numbers have been within a 7 point range.

[Sam Spade]

As I said before, there's a lot of congestion between his 2008 number 53% and the mid-40s (this translates slightly higher in an adults poll FWIW). 

It ain't gonna be taken down overnight - though the fact that the 53% was sliced through so easily last year is not the greatest sign for the long-term.

[Vepres]

What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?

I suspect Minnesota or Oregon. New Mexico has a large Hispanic population, which hasn't trended away from Obama as fast as whites, so it could be, but I doubt it.

[Tender Branson]

Michigan (Rasmussen)

53% Approve
46% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/michigan/election_2010_michigan_governor

[pbrower2a]

What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?

I have a feeling that Obama's bottomed out (for now) more green will crop up.

Not much is getting done and his proposals have been angering independents. Also, unemployment bites.

Michigan (Rasmussen)

53% Approve
46% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/michigan/election_2010_michigan_governor

In few states does unemployment bite so hard as in Michigan. The Governorship is up for grabs because of the wretched economy.  Michigan is one of those that I was most looking for, and the result is a surprise. I would have expected Michigan to go the same direction as Pennsylvania.

A comment on Texas: late in 2009, states seemed  to be reverting toward a mean as polarization of approval ratings seemed to be approaching a mean. Texas and Michigan could be showing that when President Obama gets much exposure as a speaker, he demonstrates why people voted so decisively for him in Michigan and so decisively against him in Texas in 2008.  





Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green

Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

[Rowan]

North Dakota(Rasmussen)
Approve 39%
Disapprove 58%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/north_dakota/toplines/toplines_north_dakota_senate_february_9_10_2010

Michigan updated as well.

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[pbrower2a]

What will be the next state to go? New Mexico?

I have a feeling that Obama's bottomed out (for now) more green will crop up.

Not much is getting done and his proposals have been angering independents. Also, unemployment bites.

Michigan (Rasmussen)

53% Approve
46% Disapprove

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/michigan/election_2010_michigan_governor

In few states does unemployment bite so hard as in Michigan. The Governorship is up for grabs because of the wretched economy.  Michigan is one of those that I was most looking for, and the result is a surprise. I would have expected Michigan to go the same direction as Pennsylvania.

North Dakota updated, too, and even with the category change, it's not a significant move.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow 
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green

Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

A comment on Texas: late in 2009, states seemed  to be reverting toward a mean as polarization of approval ratings seemed to be approaching a mean. Texas and Michigan could be showing that when President Obama gets much exposure as a politician, he demonstrates why people voted so decisively for him in Michigan and so decisively against him in Texas in 2008. 

[Zarn]

Who doesn't know about Michigan's unemployment? The problem with them is that many are unapologetically liberal. I hardly call 53% overwhelming support.

[pbrower2a]

Some speculation on why President Obama isn't doing so well in polls in Pennsylvania:

The state has a contested Democratic primary for a US Senate seat. President Obama has nothing to gain and much to lose by choosing one Democratic candidate for the Senate over the other, and has stayed away from the state so that he can stay out of the race. Once the nomination is decided, President Obama will appear on occasion in Pennsylvania with the Democratic nominee for the Senate, and as Pennsylvanians see Obama the campaigner again, his approval rating will go back over 50%. 

[J. J.]

Rasmussen's Obama numbers:

Approve:

47%
   
Disapprove:

52%

Basically, since August 2, 2009, Obama's numbers have been 47% to 52.5%, +/- 3.5 points, on Rasmussen.

Excepting the SOTU bounce, and a slump right before Christmas, his numbers have been within a 47% to 53% within a +/- 3.0 point range since November 17, 2008, on Rasmussen.

I'd call that very stable, and say that they are very close to today's numbers.

[Rowan]

Louisiana(Rasmussen)
Approve 37%
Disapprove 63%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/louisiana/toplines/toplines_2010_louisiana_senate_february_10_2010

30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green