The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[The Duke]

The last time that Wisconsin was competitive for the GOP, Kerry was the nominee.

You mean a whole six years ago?  Yeah, that is a long time.

What does the Hard Right have to offer, anyway?

Free ice cream.

[pbrower2a]

More trouble for President Obama in the Rust Belt (Iowa):

[Zarn]

Iowa is not in the Rust Belt. You are in the real Rust Belt, and you didn't know Iowa wasn't...

[Poundingtherock]

Rocky Mountain poll Arizona

http://www.brcpolls.com/10/RMP%202010-I-02.pdf

Obama: 40% excellent/good
35% very poor/poor
18% fair

[Lahbas]

There is going to be a small bump that is for certain. The problem however is that even though people might know that the President is trying to do his best, he is not doing it well. Therefore, this bump will probably not last long if the economic trend holds. In my opinion, his approval is likely going to enter the thirties and bottom out there by the end of the year. His current economic policies MAY produce another recession, which he will be blamed for, specifically his proposed taxes on the banks. Another stimulus will likely be introduced, which also won't be popular, and possibly will be rejected by the Senate by a narrow margin, due to the 2010 elections. At the same time I would not put it past them to pass a third stimulus, though it could potentially be filibustered.

The year has, in a way, begun well for Obama, but it is likely to get much worse before it gets any better. After 2010, the Republican House, or the Divided Congress, will make Obama's work even more difficult, and instead of blaming Congress, they will continue to blame the President. At that point, his major problem will be appealing to the Left of the Democratic Party, since he will be forced to further moderate his views. While this will help him with independent voters, his already shaky support among the Left will degrade, likely prompting a challenge in the primaries (assuming his approval ratings are still low in the middle of 2011). At this point, there is also the question of whether or not he would even WANT another term, in which case the field is wide open (Biden would be considered too close to Obama, and generally too old to run for the Presidency). Obama will find it really difficult to win reelection with a Republican House, since little can be accomplished without both the approval of the House and the President.

Even in the case of a successful economy, which I doubt, there is the problem of Afghanistan. If the situation degrades regardless of the surge, and the President is not able to follow his timeline.........enough is said. Like how President Bush went down with the War in Iraq, it is likely that President Obama will go down with the War in Afghanistan in this event. I hope that will not be the case, but since the Taliban have a fairly safe base in Warzistan, we will have to see.

In any situation, Obama has a REALLY tough road ahead of him, and his Charisma can only do so much before it, to the voter, appears nothing more than rhetoric.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa is not in the Rust Belt. You are in the real Rust Belt, and you didn't know Iowa wasn't...

Iowa has much heavy industry.

[ConservativeIllini]

In my opinion, his approval is likely going to enter the thirties and bottom out there by the end of the year.

If his approval goes into the thirties (which I don't think it will) the midterms are going to be an absolute bloodbath.

[Devilman88]

Iowa is not in the Rust Belt. You are in the real Rust Belt, and you didn't know Iowa wasn't...

Iowa has much heavy industry.

This is the rust belt... link

[J. J.]

In my opinion, his approval is likely going to enter the thirties and bottom out there by the end of the year.

If his approval goes into the thirties (which I don't think it will) the midterms are going to be an absolute bloodbath.

Actually, at about the time the of the 1994 elections, Clinton had 46% approval and 46% disapproval.  Obama has, in the same poll, 50% approval and 45% disapproval, at this time.

[Zarn]

Iowa is not in the Rust Belt. You are in the real Rust Belt, and you didn't know Iowa wasn't...

Iowa has much heavy industry.

So does China.

[Mr.Phips]

There is going to be a small bump that is for certain. The problem however is that even though people might know that the President is trying to do his best, he is not doing it well. Therefore, this bump will probably not last long if the economic trend holds. In my opinion, his approval is likely going to enter the thirties and bottom out there by the end of the year. His current economic policies MAY produce another recession, which he will be blamed for, specifically his proposed taxes on the banks. Another stimulus will likely be introduced, which also won't be popular, and possibly will be rejected by the Senate by a narrow margin, due to the 2010 elections. At the same time I would not put it past them to pass a third stimulus, though it could potentially be filibustered.

The year has, in a way, begun well for Obama, but it is likely to get much worse before it gets any better. After 2010, the Republican House, or the Divided Congress, will make Obama's work even more difficult, and instead of blaming Congress, they will continue to blame the President. At that point, his major problem will be appealing to the Left of the Democratic Party, since he will be forced to further moderate his views. While this will help him with independent voters, his already shaky support among the Left will degrade, likely prompting a challenge in the primaries (assuming his approval ratings are still low in the middle of 2011). At this point, there is also the question of whether or not he would even WANT another term, in which case the field is wide open (Biden would be considered too close to Obama, and generally too old to run for the Presidency). Obama will find it really difficult to win reelection with a Republican House, since little can be accomplished without both the approval of the House and the President.

Even in the case of a successful economy, which I doubt, there is the problem of Afghanistan. If the situation degrades regardless of the surge, and the President is not able to follow his timeline.........enough is said. Like how President Bush went down with the War in Iraq, it is likely that President Obama will go down with the War in Afghanistan in this event. I hope that will not be the case, but since the Taliban have a fairly safe base in Warzistan, we will have to see.

In any situation, Obama has a REALLY tough road ahead of him, and his Charisma can only do so much before it, to the voter, appears nothing more than rhetoric.

If Republicans win the House, Obama will be a lock for reelection.  He will be able to pin the blame for the nations problems on the Republican House. 

[Tender Branson]

2 Internet Polls:

YouGov/Polimetrix

45% Approve
49% Disapprove

http://media.economist.com/images/pdf/Tabs20100127.pdf

Harris Interactive

40% Excellent/Good
60% Fair/Poor

http://news.harrisinteractive.com/profiles/investor/ResLibraryView.asp?BzID=1963&ResLibraryID=35721&Category=1777

[pbrower2a]

A reminder: interactive polls are worthless.

Many people do not have internet connections,  nobody is able to screen participants for age, and nobody is able to screen away multiple votes.

[You kip if you want to...]

A reminder: interactive polls are worthless.

Many people do not have internet connections,  nobody is able to screen participants for age, and nobody is able to screen away multiple votes.

[Poundingtherock]

PPP(D) Alaska

Obama 37/56

Let's just say that Obama won't get a more favorable sample than what PPP(D) gave him.

[You kip if you want to...]

PPP(D) Alaska

Obama 37/56

Let's just say that Obama won't get a more favorable sample than what PPP(D) gave him.

Begich's approval was also about the same level which was unsuprising, I gotta say.

[Bo]

PPP(D) Alaska

Obama 37/56

Let's just say that Obama won't get a more favorable sample than what PPP(D) gave him.

Begich's approval was also about the same level which was unsuprising, I gotta say.

It's easy for Begich to have low approvals when a "Chicago librul" is in the White House.

[Tender Branson]

Some updates:

North Carolina (Rasmussen)

48% Approve
52% Disapprove

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted by Rasmussen Reports, January 27, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/north_carolina/toplines/toplines_2010_north_carolina_senate_january_27_2010

Florida (Rasmussen)

42% Approve
58% Disapprove

This state telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters in the state of Florida was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on January 27, 2010. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/florida/toplines/toplines_2010_florida_governor_race_january_27_2010

[Rowan]

Alaska, North Carolina, and Florida updated



30%-39%-Dark Dark Red
40%-44%- Dark Red
45-49%- Red
Under 50% approval but approval higher than disapproval- Yellow
50%-54%- Light Green
55%-59%- Green
60%+- Dark Green

[pbrower2a]

Alaska doesn't get polled often, so this one is likely to stick for some time. It goes for Obama only if the oil industry goes for him.


Florida and North Carolina have updates as well, and both are absolute must-wins for any GOP nominee. They basically trade places.



Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 70% Yellow (90% if 60% or higher disapproval)
40-44% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
45-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 30% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-60%: 60% Green
>60%: 80% Green

Months:

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), and more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Z- no recent poll (maximum 180 days) before December 1, 2009 except Montana (November 2009), which rarely gets polled.

[Eraserhead]

lol @ the Harris poll.

[Tender Branson]

Michigan (EPIC-MRA)

Overall, how would you rate the job being done by Barack Obama as President - would you give him a positive rating of excellent or pretty good, or a negative rating of just fair or poor?

41% Positive
58% Negative

Now, I would like to read a list of several political figures. For each one, please tell me if you recognize the name, and if you do, whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person.

Total Favorable: 50%
Total Unfavorable: 44%

http://www.wxyz.com/news/story/Exclusive-Poll-Race-for-Michigan-Governor/6nIgarXkF0i6bw7bdzLAYw.cspx

[Poundingtherock]

Begich's best bet in 2014 is for Obama to lose in 2012.

[DariusNJ]

Looks like there is a slight bump, but still a lot of skeptical folks.

Rasmussen has him at 49\51. They say most of the bump in approval comes from Democrats. "Approval among Democrats grew from 81% before Wednesday’s speech to 90% over the past two nights."

"On the morning of the speech, 50% of Democrats Strongly Approved of the President’s performance. On the two nights following the speech, that number jumped to 65%. There was essentially no change among Republican and unaffiliated voters. "

Rasmussen polling on specific issues on the speech:

"However, just 21% of voters nationwide believe that taxes have been cut for 95% of Americans. Most (53%) say it has not happened, and 26% are not sure."

"The president also asserted that “after two years of recession, the economy is growing again.” Just 35% of voters believe that statement is true, while 50% say it is false."

"Obama claimed that steps taken by his team are responsible for putting two million people to work “who would otherwise be unemployed.” Just 27% of voters say that statement is true. Fifty-one percent (51%) say it's false. "

Now, Gallup has Obama at 48\45, up from 47\47 prior to the speech.



 

[Rowan]

Gallup is 47/47 today. No bump at all.