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  Talk Elections
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  The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread
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Author Topic: The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread  (Read 1044026 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #2775 on: October 11, 2009, 12:53:25 pm »

All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

That's kind of a weird model.

A Senatorial election -- the one in which Harry Reid is apparently vulnerable -- is a statewide election. So is any election that involves someone to complete part of a term of Senator John Ensign should he resign -- and he might.
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #2776 on: October 11, 2009, 01:06:15 pm »

No of course it's a pipe dream! Pbrower knows all!

No -- I just know how Obama campaigned in 2008 and expect much the same in 2012.

Obama, unlike McCain, waged a most positive spirited campaign in 2008 (and with that came the positive media coverage) and, God willing, the president will have a positive record to run on in 2012

The McCain-Palin campaign was a sickening spectacle, by comparison. Palin's rallies, during which she incited hatred on the stump towards a political opponent, undoubtedly, alienated many swing voters
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #2777 on: October 11, 2009, 01:28:50 pm »

New Gallup Numbers

Approval 56%(+2)
DisApproval 37%(-1)

His best numbers since early August from Gallup.
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Saxwsylvania
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« Reply #2778 on: October 11, 2009, 01:43:53 pm »

No of course it's a pipe dream! Pbrower knows all!

No -- I just know how Obama campaigned in 2008 and expect much the same in 2012.

Obama, unlike McCain, waged a most positive spirited campaign in 2008 (and with that came the positive media coverage) and, God willing, the president will have a positive record to run on in 2012

The McCain-Palin campaign was a sickening spectacle, by comparison. Palin's rallies, during which she incited hatred on the stump towards a political opponent, undoubtedly, alienated many swing voters

Correct, Obama ran one of the most positive campaigns of all time.  Throughout the election and this current health care debate, he has not once distorted his opponent's arguments.  Saintly Sarah will go down as one of the most vile, hateful politicians in U.S. history, along the lines of Huey Long or Theodore Bilbo.  Her speeches were directly responsible for the burnings of several black churches in Alabama and the violent death of a census worker.  Meanwhile, President Obama has remained a pragmatic, center-left Smiley Christian Democrat.  If he wasn't, then why would Hawk support him?
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #2779 on: October 11, 2009, 01:59:32 pm »

Obama's gotten a pretty clear bump for some reason: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

Probably because healthcare looks like it might pass now, as opposed to August? Or Dems and Independents tuning back in?
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Rowan
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« Reply #2780 on: October 11, 2009, 02:02:28 pm »

LOL Gallup. So he goes from 50/43, to 56/37 in a matter of 4 days? Yeah sure.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #2781 on: October 11, 2009, 02:17:40 pm »

LOL Gallup. So he goes from 50/43, to 56/37 in a matter of 4 days? Yeah sure.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2782 on: October 11, 2009, 02:21:57 pm »

Obama's gotten a pretty clear bump for some reason: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

Probably because healthcare looks like it might pass now, as opposed to August? Or Dems and Independents tuning back in?

Lief, Lief, Lief! Why would he get a positive bump in the polls if most polls show Americans disapproving of healthcare reform?

Anyway, I can't explain why he went from 50% to 56% in four days. Of course, I can't explain why Obama won the Nobel Prize either. You learn with him that most things that occur occur because of external forces, not something the President actually does. I expect Gallup thought it was appropriate to raise his approvals because he intends to do a better job in the future.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2783 on: October 11, 2009, 02:24:59 pm »

Lief, Lief, Lief! Why would he get a positive bump in the polls if most polls show Americans disapproving of healthcare reform?

Er... not really. They're pretty mixed, and Americans still strongly support most of the individual parts of the reform package.
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change08
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« Reply #2784 on: October 11, 2009, 02:33:17 pm »

Obama's gotten a pretty clear bump for some reason: http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php

Probably because healthcare looks like it might pass now, as opposed to August? Or Dems and Independents tuning back in?

And the noble prize?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2785 on: October 11, 2009, 03:25:18 pm »

No of course it's a pipe dream! Pbrower knows all!

No -- I just know how Obama campaigned in 2008 and expect much the same in 2012.

Obama, unlike McCain, waged a most positive spirited campaign in 2008 (and with that came the positive media coverage) and, God willing, the president will have a positive record to run on in 2012

The McCain-Palin campaign was a sickening spectacle, by comparison. Palin's rallies, during which she incited hatred on the stump towards a political opponent, undoubtedly, alienated many swing voters

Add to that -- Obama had as well-organized a campaign as anyone in recent history, and he picked his battles well.

.... I hope that we never see stump speeches as demagogic, divisive, and inflammatory as those of Sarah Palin again from any candidate for President or Vice-President.    
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2786 on: October 11, 2009, 04:59:12 pm »


ITS A CONSPIRACY
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CJK
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« Reply #2787 on: October 11, 2009, 07:13:26 pm »
« Edited: October 11, 2009, 07:15:42 pm by CJK »

Quote
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Add to that -- Obama had a

a) Bush

b) the economy

c) a stock market meltdown, complete with bank collapses

d) a corrupt media establishment basically working for him, often conforming to his campaign propaganda and covering up anything that could hurt him.


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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #2788 on: October 11, 2009, 07:30:38 pm »


d) a corrupt media establishment basically working for him, often conforming to his campaign propaganda and covering up anything that could hurt him. 

That was more down to the fact that Obama, unlike McCain, waged a positive spirited campaign considering that the very same media had given their ol' busmate John McCain his free pass since Adam were a lad

With positive campaigns come positive coverage. Fair is fair
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CJK
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« Reply #2789 on: October 11, 2009, 07:30:59 pm »


d) a corrupt media establishment basically working for him, often conforming to his campaign propaganda and covering up anything that could hurt him. 

That was more down to the fact that Obama, unlike McCain, waged a positive spirited campaign

Yeah, according to the media.

Of course McCain's campaign was primarily negative but Obama had a ton of negative stuff thrown at McCain too.

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Rowan
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« Reply #2790 on: October 11, 2009, 07:31:34 pm »


No, just bad polling.
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DariusNJ
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« Reply #2791 on: October 12, 2009, 09:49:52 am »

I don't see how Obama could get a large bump from winning the Peace Prize. If anything, I expect that winning the prize and donating the money to charity would help his favorability ratings, not approval.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Gallup interviews all adults right? I guess its possible that among all adults, Obama's peace prize may have an effect, because some people don't follow politics closely, and they may approve of Obama now that he won the peace prize because they assume it means he's doing a good job.

I doubt the prize made much of an impact among likely voters.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2792 on: October 12, 2009, 09:54:12 am »
« Edited: October 12, 2009, 09:57:46 am by KillerPolloz »


The burden of proof is on you then.  The Gallup poll is actually extremely close to all of the other recent polling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

One of these is not like the others and it isn't Gallup.
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #2793 on: October 12, 2009, 12:08:08 pm »

Today's gallup numbers

Approval 56%(no Change)
Disapproval 36%(-1)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2794 on: October 12, 2009, 01:54:58 pm »

Quote
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Add to that -- Obama had a

a) Bush

b) the economy

c) a stock market meltdown, complete with bank collapses

d) a corrupt media establishment basically working for him, often conforming to his campaign propaganda and covering up anything that could hurt him.


That says nothing about FoX Propaganda Channel.

Obama knows how to attract and keep media attention, and to act so that the attention is neutral at worst. He's always good copy.

In 2012, Obama will still have

1) George W. Bush to kick around, as in

"So and so ... just like George W. Bush".  I can almost see the ads in which some opponent's face morphs into that of George W. Bush.

2) the economy -- and if it is showing steady growth even short of an all-out boom, he can claim that slow growth is best for all. Who wants another speculative boom?

3) the stock market and real estate crash of 2009 in the rear-view mirror fading  into the horizon

4) a legislative record. 
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2795 on: October 12, 2009, 02:20:40 pm »

Today's gallup numbers

Approval 56%(no Change)
Disapproval 36%(-1)

Obama is surging.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2796 on: October 12, 2009, 04:39:38 pm »

Today's gallup numbers

Approval 56%(no Change)
Disapproval 36%(-1)

Obama is surging.

I'll wait until I see other, non-Gallup  polls to be sure.

56-39 suggests not simply 5% or so across the board, but major changes in patterns of support. Piling on support in New York, New England, or California means nothing. But if you see a virtual tie in Texas, something important is happening.
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change08
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« Reply #2797 on: October 12, 2009, 05:04:39 pm »

Today was Obama's best RCP average (spread) since August 17th.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2798 on: October 12, 2009, 07:49:25 pm »

Today's gallup numbers

Approval 56%(no Change)
Disapproval 36%(-1)

Obama is surging.

Although my own support for him is pretty tepid at this point, this is good news for obvious reasons.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2799 on: October 12, 2009, 09:18:06 pm »

Today's gallup numbers

Approval 56%(no Change)
Disapproval 36%(-1)

Obama is surging.

I'll wait until I see other, non-Gallup  polls to be sure.

Er... other non-Gallup polls are showing pretty much exactly the same numbers (except R(epublican)assmussen).
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