The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[DariusNJ]

Gallup is back down to 55\38.

[DariusNJ]

Gallup just released 50 states, but they are from January-June polling so I have no idea what to make of it. Pretty much meaningless numbers.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/122165/Obama-Approval-Highest-D.C.-Hawaii-Vermont.aspx

ROLF OBAMA approval in Alabama 56 pc LOL xD

LOL, also 53% in Oklahoma and 58% in Mississippi? That would only happen if he had n 80% approval nationwide.

[DariusNJ]

Arkansas - Wilson Research Strategies (R)

42% Approve
54% Disapprove

(Mike Beebe)

78% Approve
15% Disapprove

(Blanche Lincoln)

49% Approve
40% Disapprove

The poll was commissioned by Talk Business Quarterly, a magazine headed by Stephens Media columnist Roby Brock. Washington-based Wilson Research Strategies (R) surveyed 600 likely Arkansas voters by phone July 13-15.

http://arkansasnews.com/2009/08/12/poll-beebe-has-78-percen
t-approval-rating-lincoln-49-percent/

Does any governer have a higher approval than Beebe?

[DariusNJ]

At this point, I think Obama's approval is somewhere in between Rasmussen and Gallup, tilting a little bit to Gallup....say, around Obama+7

Obama +7 (52-45)  is very close to the result of Election  2008. That's about 370 EV with the regional polarization of voting patterns that we now have.

Approval ratings are generally higher than the actual vote percentage they will get.

[DariusNJ]

Twitters about the PPP Arkansas poll, currently in the field:

"Ark. poll is looking brutal for Democrats, but Mike Beebe still looks to have the highest approval of anyone we've polled on nationally this year.

Arkansas is definitely the birtherest state to date...it's been fun but I think we'll stop asking about it after this poll

Public Policy Polling (D) is currently in the field in the state that gave us Bill Clinton, and their survey includes this question: "Between Rush Limbaugh and Barack Obama, who do you think has the better vision for America?"

So far, PPP communications director Tom Jensen tells me, Limbaugh is winning by about ten points. The numbers could potentially narrow between now and when the survey is finished over the weekend, but Jensen is sure that Limbaugh will end up winning."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/08/early-poll-data-arkansas-likes-limbaugh-more-than-obama.php

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

BAHAHAHAHA! That's hilarious!

The sad thing is, a pollster asked that question in Oklahoma a couple of months ago, and they actually favored Limbaugh. Seriously.

[DariusNJ]

Here is the link to the Oklahoma poll:



A majority of Oklahoma voters disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President, not a great surprise in the state he fared poorest in at the ballot box last year.

Just 38% of voters approve of his performance so far, with 56% disapproving.

Even among Democrats 31% disapprove of Obama's work, a rate far higher than PPP has found in any other state. And while he's doing pretty well with independents nationally, 58% disapprove of him in the Sooner State.

To get a gauge of just how conservative Oklahoma is we also took a look at public opinion about Rush Limbaugh in the state, and asked respondents whether they think Limbaugh or Obama has a better vision for America.

Even in this reddest of states, more voters have a negative opinion of Limbaugh than a positive one, by a margin of 45-39. But when it comes to whether they think the country should head more in the direction the President envisions or the one the talk show host would like to see Limbaugh wins out 56-44. 81% of Republicans, 58% of independents, and even 29% of Democrats picked him.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/05/obama-not-doing-too-well-in-oklahoma.html

And that was in May, when Obama's approval ratings were higher nationally.

[DariusNJ]

Montana(Research 2000)

Favorable 44%
Unfavorable 52%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/8/19/MT/347

I'd think that his approval would be slightly under his favorables, so around 40% or so. No way in hell he carries MT in 2012 like pbrower has been preaching for the past 6 months.

I think if your correct and his approval is 40% in Montana, then I'd say he's around 50\50 in Colorado.

[DariusNJ]

Didn't see this posted here, so

PPP
Colorado: 49% approve, 47% disapprove

"His reviews are highly polarized along partisan lines with 88% of Democrats but only 13% of Republicans saying he's doing a good job. Independents split almost evenly with 48% giving him good marks and 46% disapproving.

Both of our Colorado polls since he took office have found Obama's approval lagging the 54% of the vote he received in the state last year and a Gallup study last week had his popularity there ranking 43rd out of 50 states, behind many places where he did much worse at the ballot box last year.

That begs the question: what's Obama's problem in Colorado?

Comparing our final pre-election poll in the state, which correctly showed him winning with 54% of the vote, to his approval numbers a few things stand out:

-Obama's numbers with Democrats and Republicans now are virtually identical to the share of the vote he got, but he's slipped among independents. He won about 60% of the independent vote but now has just a 48% approval rating with them.

-While Obama is pretty much steady with high approval among Hispanic and black voters, only 44% of whites approve of the job he's doing where 50% of them voted for him.

-His approval rating among young voters (good) and old voters (bad) is similar to what he got in November but he's dropped from winning about 56% of the vote from middle aged voters to a 49% approval rating with them.

One issue that's not helping Obama too much in the state is health care, as 51% of respondents say they're opposed to the President's plans with just 38% in support.

The 'birther' movement is relatively strong in Colorado. Just 58% of voters in the state will say for sure that they think Obama was born in the United States while 24% believe that he was not and 18% are unsure. This line of thinking is particularly prevalent among Republicans, 43% of whom think the President was not born in the country compared to just 33% who think he was.

One thing Colorado voters can be proud of though is their awareness that Hawaii is part of the United States. A PPP national poll released earlier today found that only 90% of Americans overall think that it is, but 97% of folks in Colorado do."

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/08/obama-steady-in-colorado.html

[DariusNJ]

The youth seem to be drawn to the hopeful message both Obama and Huckabee espouse. To tell you the truth, if I didn't know Huckabee was batsh*t crazy, I'd probably be a supporter of his. I have a favorable view of the man, his politics are just too, well, out there for me.

I think much of his 40% among 18-29 year olds is because of his likable personality. If he is the Republican candidate in a general election vs Obama, and young people see how nutty his views are, I am certain Obama will get a similar margin among young voters as he did in the 08 election vs McCain.

[DariusNJ]

Pbrower, what's up with Utah and Alabama?

Really old polls. You can safely assume Obama isnt too popular in those states.

[DariusNJ]

Wow, I'm surprised to see that nobody here has thrown out the idea of a "Kennedy bump" yet...

I'm not sure, but maybe it will help increase support for health care reform by a couple of percentage points.

[DariusNJ]

Anyway, here's what I think the map for Obama approval ratings are right now.

Red is approve
Blue is disapprove
Grey is tied

States that are close to 5050: Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Florida

[DariusNJ]

Ahahaha, Alabama:

Whites: 28% Approve, 69% Disapprove
Blacks: 75% Approve, 24% Disapprove

More like:

Whites: 15% Approve, 81% Disapprove
Blacks: 95% Approve, 3% Disapprove

SurveyUSA always has messed up crosstabs.

[DariusNJ]

SurveyUSA has just released their August tracking numbers, previous month in paranthesis:

Alabama: 40/58(42/56)
California: 62/33(66/30)
Iowa: 45/51(56/40)
Kansas: 45/51(41/53)
Kentucky: 36/61(41/55)
Minnesota: 53/44(51/46)
Missouri: 48/50(55/42)
New Mexico: 52/46(61/37)
New York: 58/38(63/34)
Oregon: 54/39(54/42)
Virginia: 42/54(44/49)
Washington: 51/46(56/41)
Wisconsin: 45/50(50/45)

Iowa, Kansas, Virginia, Washington, and Washington look off.

[DariusNJ]

This was to be expected, so just take a deep breath.

He is falling faster than I expected, but I don't see his approval going below 40%.

[DariusNJ]

Here's my best guess on where his approvals stand, based on current polling/common sense:

Blue is <50%
Red is >50%
Green approximately 50%

'
Lower in Arizona, higher in Colorado. Otherwise, looks good.

[DariusNJ]

"President Barack Obama will address a joint session of Congress on health care reform in prime time on Wednesday, Sept. 9, a senior official tells POLITICO.

Obama will receive House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid at the White House the day before for a previously scheduled sit-down.

The last time a president addressed a joint session of Congress that wasn’t a State of the Union, or the traditional first address by a new president, was Sept. 20, 2001, when President George W. Bush spoke on the war on terrorism following the 9/11 attacks."



This should mean a bump in Obama approval ratings, unless he messes up badly. Obama usually knocks these kind of speeches out of the park, so I'm hopeful.

For reference, when Bill Clinton gave his big health care speech in front of Congress in '93, his approval rating went up 10 points. Keep in mind that the bump Obama likely will receive won't last very long, but it would stop the fall in approval he's experiencing.

[DariusNJ]

In my opinion, his approval ratings are recovering after the town hall protests and Republicans bashing him, if anything.

You'll see a real boost of momentum hopefully after his big health care speech.

[DariusNJ]

NE-02 was polled a few weeks ago.

Results?

[DariusNJ]

Rasmussen has Obama back at 49%.

[DariusNJ]

Rasmussen says Obama approval is 59% in Connecticut.

[DariusNJ]

I don't agree with prbrowers logic, but instead of getting mad about it, why not just make your own tracking map?

The Maine poll looks like an outlier, and so does the New Jersey one.

If Obama is at 50% nationwide, his approval will be positive in New Jersey. Obama isn't doing well among independents or Republicans, yet his favorables in Maine is 74% among independents and 35% among Republicans. Doesn't make sense.

Just exercise some common sense people, that's all I'm saying.

[DariusNJ]

I don't agree with prbrowers logic, but instead of getting mad about it, why not just make your own tracking map?

The Maine poll looks like an outlier, and so does the New Jersey one.

If Obama is at 50% nationwide, his approval will be positive in New Jersey. Obama isn't doing well among independents or Republicans, yet his favorables in Maine is 74% among independents and 35% among Republicans. Doesn't make sense.

Just exercise some common sense people, that's all I'm saying.

You are forgetting Corzine's impact and the fact that Obama is an open buddy of his.

1)No they're not.

2)Just because a Democratic governor is unpopular in a state, it does not mean it will bring Obama's numbers down.

3) That logic works the other way too. Governor Mike Beebe of Arkansas has a really high approval rating, it hasn't helped Obama's approval in Arkansas. And in West Virginia, the two Democratic senators and the governor are all fairly popular I believe, while Obama isn't.

[DariusNJ]

They are buddies. Why are you denying it?

You're a Republican. Why are you denying it?

[DariusNJ]

I'm registered  as a Republican...

Is there a problem?

Not at all tough guy, but why don't you change your registration on the forum?