The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% u.

Disapprove 54% , +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45% u.

Disapprove 54% , u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 25%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, -1.

All numbers are within the new normal.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49% +4.

Disapprove 50% , -4.


"Strongly Approve" is at 2%, +3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -3.

Either a huge movement, or a bad sample.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48% -1.

Disapprove 51% , +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 40%, +3.


It looks like a bad pro-Obama sample is moving through the system.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45 -3.

Disapprove 54% , +3.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +3.


A bad pro-Obama sample might be moving through the system.  This does not yet look like a big Obama drop.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44 -1.

Disapprove 55% , +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 45, +2.


The pro-Obama sample has passed through the system.

Note that the Strongly Disapprove number is now higher than Approve.

[J. J.]

I think to put this into perspective, Obama's Approve number has dropped 10 points from this time last year and his Disapprove numbers have increased by the same amount.  His Strongly Disapprove numbers have increased by 12 points.  His Strongly Approve numbers have dropped by 6 points.

The real collapse in his approval numbers did not start until late July 2009.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45 +1.

Disapprove 55% , u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44, -1.


All numbers are within the "new normal."  The Strongly Disapprove is below Approve.

[J. J.]

Obama Gallup Approval rating June 2010:

46% Approve

46% Disapprove

Trends for comparison:

Carter: 43/42 (June 1978)

Reagan: 45/46 (June 1982)

Bush I: 68/18 (June 1990)

Clinton: 46/46 (June 1994)

Bush II: 73/20 (June 2002)

In Clinton's case, he was off his lows (37%) and growing.  The Gallup numbers I've seen had him at 46-48% in October or November 1994.  Carter was in his low trough for the first two years, and would also rebound by the midterms.

Only Reagan was showing declining numbers.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, nc.

Disapprove 54% , –1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, –1.


*Polling was not done over the holiday weekend.

And within the "new normal."  No great increase or decrease

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54% u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

Now that is stable.  

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, u.

Disapprove 54% u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

(Wow, that was easy to type.)



[/quote]

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +1.

Disapprove 53% -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52% -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52% -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, -1.

Could we say the movement over the past few days is a trend, or just sample variation?

Really, we've only seen movement yesterday and today, after a week of huge stability.  If there is actual movement, as opposed to a good sample moving through the system, we should wait for Tuesday.  Friday's "Strongly" numbers showed no movement.

If Tuesday's Approve numbers are 45-46, there is no movement, and its just a good sample that moved through the system.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, u.

Disapprove 50% u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 39%, -1.


Either actual movement for Obama, or a bad sample.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, -1.

Disapprove 52% +2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, -2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +2.


A good Obama sample dropped off, but there might have been some slight upward movement as well.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, -1.

Disapprove 53% +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 42%, +1.

Still within range.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 45%, -2.

Disapprove 54% +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, +1.

Still within range.


There seems to have been an overly pro-Obama sample earlier in the week.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +1.

Disapprove 54% u.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.

Still within range.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -2.

Disapprove 55% +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, u.

Upper edge of the range on the Strongly Approve number.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, +2.

Disapprove 54% -1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, -1.

[J. J.]

Gallup, like Rasmussen, is also up for the second day now:

49% Approve (+5)
44% Disapprove (-4)

Maybe because the oil well is closed, but we need to wait a few more days to evaluate.

Yesterday, the 'bots had him down.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 47%, +1.

Disapprove 52% -2.


"Strongly Approve" is at 28%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 43%, u.


There could be some pro-Obama movement or statistical noise; we've seen two days of moderately better numbers.

[J. J.]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 46%, -1.

Disapprove 53% +1.


"Strongly Approve" is at 27%, -1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 44%, +1.


The moderately better numbers were just noise.