The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Twitters about the PPP Arkansas poll, currently in the field:

"Ark. poll is looking brutal for Democrats, but Mike Beebe still looks to have the highest approval of anyone we've polled on nationally this year.

Arkansas is definitely the birtherest state to date...it's been fun but I think we'll stop asking about it after this poll

Public Policy Polling (D) is currently in the field in the state that gave us Bill Clinton, and their survey includes this question: "Between Rush Limbaugh and Barack Obama, who do you think has the better vision for America?"

So far, PPP communications director Tom Jensen tells me, Limbaugh is winning by about ten points. The numbers could potentially narrow between now and when the survey is finished over the weekend, but Jensen is sure that Limbaugh will end up winning."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/08/early-poll-data-arkansas-likes-limbaugh-more-than-obama.php

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

BAHAHAHAHA! That's hilarious!

The sad thing is, a pollster asked that question in Oklahoma a couple of months ago, and they actually favored Limbaugh. Seriously.

Oklahoma -- the first Fascist state on American soil.

[Psychic Octopus]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

RCP:

52.2% Approve
41.4% Disapprove

Everyone should follow this poll, it blends together all polls, making it better.



 

[DariusNJ]

Here is the link to the Oklahoma poll:



A majority of Oklahoma voters disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President, not a great surprise in the state he fared poorest in at the ballot box last year.

Just 38% of voters approve of his performance so far, with 56% disapproving.

Even among Democrats 31% disapprove of Obama's work, a rate far higher than PPP has found in any other state. And while he's doing pretty well with independents nationally, 58% disapprove of him in the Sooner State.

To get a gauge of just how conservative Oklahoma is we also took a look at public opinion about Rush Limbaugh in the state, and asked respondents whether they think Limbaugh or Obama has a better vision for America.

Even in this reddest of states, more voters have a negative opinion of Limbaugh than a positive one, by a margin of 45-39. But when it comes to whether they think the country should head more in the direction the President envisions or the one the talk show host would like to see Limbaugh wins out 56-44. 81% of Republicans, 58% of independents, and even 29% of Democrats picked him.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/05/obama-not-doing-too-well-in-oklahoma.html

And that was in May, when Obama's approval ratings were higher nationally.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

RCP:

52.2% Approve
41.4% Disapprove

Everyone should follow this poll, it blends together all polls, making it better.



 

I agree. The Pollster average is also pretty good.

[Rowan]

Montana(Research 2000)

Favorable 44%
Unfavorable 52%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/8/19/MT/347

I'd think that his approval would be slightly under his favorables, so around 40% or so. No way in hell he carries MT in 2012 like pbrower has been preaching for the past 6 months.

[You kip if you want to...]

Montana(Research 2000)

Favorable 44%
Unfavorable 52%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/8/19/MT/347

I'd think that his approval would be slightly under his favorables, so around 40% or so. No way in hell he carries MT in 2012 like pbrower has been preaching for the past 6 months.

It's nearly impossible to say since we're 39 months away from the election.

[Rowan]

Montana(Research 2000)

Favorable 44%
Unfavorable 52%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/8/19/MT/347

I'd think that his approval would be slightly under his favorables, so around 40% or so. No way in hell he carries MT in 2012 like pbrower has been preaching for the past 6 months.

It's nearly impossible to say since we're 39 months away from the election.

Tell him that, not me. He has said Obama will definitely win MT because of the "age wave".

[War on Want]

Montana(Research 2000)

Favorable 44%
Unfavorable 52%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/8/19/MT/347

I'd think that his approval would be slightly under his favorables, so around 40% or so. No way in hell he carries MT in 2012 like pbrower has been preaching for the past 6 months.

Not surprising.

[Vepres]

Georgia (Rasmussen)

45% Approve
54% Disapprove

This state telephone survey of 1,200 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 18, 2009. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_state_toplines/georgia/toplines_georgia_healthcare_august_18_2009

Yeah for some reason I doubt that Obama has higher approval ratings in Georgia than Florida...

Well, the only explanation I can think of is that Florida has been harder by the housing crisis and the recession (due to drops in tourism) than Georgia.

[pbrower2a]

Montana(Research 2000)

Favorable 44%
Unfavorable 52%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/8/19/MT/347

I'd think that his approval would be slightly under his favorables, so around 40% or so. No way in hell he carries MT in 2012 like pbrower has been preaching for the past 6 months.

Map updated (Montana finally polled):

It's not hugely off from 2008, and I welcome the poll as it addresses an "interesting" state for predictions of 2012. Maryland, Vermont, Nebraska, and Alaska aren't "interesting".

I am not convinced that Montana is unwinnable for Obama; it depends upon who his opponent is.

This is very different from the situation in Pennsylvania or Texas.  My argument for Montana being a likely pickup for Obama is that it was close enough in 2008  for the age wave to flip the state in 2012. I have yet to be convinced of any spuriousness of an age wave in American politics. The age wave will at most flip two states -- Missouri and Montana.  The Age Wave cannot operate in reverse anywhere in America. Should Obama not do so well in 2012 as in 2008, then such will reflect that either young adults have become less liberal in their leaning than they were in 2008 or that the GOP nominee has overpowered the Age Wave by attracting older voters away from Obama.

It is possible for the GOP to undo or counteract some of the effects of the Age Wave in which younger voters enter the electorate and older, more conservative ones exit. Biological reality of aging is beyond refutation. To get their nominee elected the GOP must overpower the Age Wave somehow. How? Your guess is as good as mine. Voting practices by age are generally well known.

The electorate in all states will be different in 2012 from what it was in 2008. It will not vote exactly the same, or differ only by such a feature as the "Age Wave". There will be a Favorite Son effect in at least one state in favor of the Republican, and there will be hot economic issues. Add to that, Obama will have shown whether he is an effective and desirable President who possesses a vision of a new America that enough people share or he will be a failure. Spectacular success or failure will overpower any Age Wave.

My model of an effective Obama Presidency is that he wins everything that he won in 2008 and adds Missouri and Montana due to the Age Wave and Arizona due to the disappearance of John McCain as a Favorite Son. A more effective Presidency suggests that he will win more states -- let us say Georgia, and a less-effective one that he loses such a state as North Carolina or Indiana. 


 

[DariusNJ]

Montana(Research 2000)

Favorable 44%
Unfavorable 52%

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/8/19/MT/347

I'd think that his approval would be slightly under his favorables, so around 40% or so. No way in hell he carries MT in 2012 like pbrower has been preaching for the past 6 months.

I think if your correct and his approval is 40% in Montana, then I'd say he's around 50\50 in Colorado.

[pbrower2a]

This is a copy of a post that I put in another thread. It shows the only trend that I consider realistic. It's the Age Wave, and if you have familiarity with the political values of people who will be voting for the first time in 2012, including the political culture  that they know best and have responded to as one can reasonably expect.

Here's one trend to watch:

The youngest voters from 2004-2008

State       2004 Margin      2008 Margin            Swing

The Mid-Atlantic

PA            60-39 Kerry       66-34 Obama          D + 6
DE           54-45 Kerry        71-25 Obama         D + 17
NY           72-25 Kerry         76-21 Obama        D + 4
NJ            64-35 Kerry        67-32 Obama         D + 3
MD           62-35 Kerry       70-26 Obama          D + 8
DC           90-8 Kerry       95-5 Obama              D + 5

New England

CT            70-29 Kerry       79-18 Obama      D + 9
ME            50-48 Bush       67-30 Obama      D + 19
NH            57-43 Kerry       61-37 Obama      D + 4
VT            71-27 Kerry       81-18 Obama      D + 10
MA           72-26 Kerry       78-20 Obama      D + 6
RI             68-30 Kerry       68-25 Obama      D + 0

The Midwest

OH           56-42 Kerry       61-38 Obama              D + 5
IN            52-47 Bush        63-35 Obama              D + 16
MO           51-48 Kerry        59-39 Obama             D + 8
IA              53-46 Kerry        63-34 Obama            D + 10
MI             55-43 Kerry         68-29 Obama            D + 13
MN           57-41 Kerry         66-32 Obama            D + 9
WI            57-41 Kerry         64-35 Obama            D + 7
IL             64-35 Kerry        71-27 Obama    D + 7

The Coastal South

VA             54-46 Kerry       63-34 Obama              D + 9
NC             56-43 Kerry       74-26 Obama              D + 18
SC             51-48 Bush        57-42 Obama             D + 9
GA             52-47 Bush        51-48 McCain             D + 1
FL              58-41 Kerry        61-37 Obama             D + 3

The Deep and Inland South

AL            57-41 Bush         51-49 Obama           D + 10
MS           63-37 Kerry         56-43 Obama           R + 6
TN            53-46 Bush         59-40 Obama           D + 13
KY           54-45 Bush          51-48 Obama           D + 6
WV          52-48 Bush         50-50 Tie      D + 2
AR           51-47 Bush         49-49 Tie      D + 2
LA            53-45 Bush         49-48 McCain   D + 4 (but won 18-24 by 53-45)
TX            59-41 Bush         54-45 Obama   D + 13

The Plains States

KS           55-44 Bush          51-47 Obama   D + 7
ND           68-32 Bush         51-47 Obama   D + 19
SD           55-43 Bush         50-48 Obama   D + 7
NE           60-38 Bush         54-43 Obama   D + 16
OK           62-38 Bush         60-40 McCain   D + 2

The Rockies and the Southwest

AZ            50-48 Bush        52-48 Obama            D + 4
NV            56-42 Kerry        70-29 Obama           D + 14
NM           50-49 Bush         77-21 Obama           D + 27
CO           51-47 Kerry         No result                  N/A
UT            77-18 Bush         62-33 McCain           D + 15
WY          72-25 Bush         63-35 McCain            D + 10
MT            52-43 Bush        61-37 Obama            D + 18
ID            65-35 Bush        56-42 McCain              D + 7

The West

CA           58-39 Kerry         76-23 Obama            D + 18 (80% of 18-24 for Obama)
OR           62-37 Kerry          No result                 N/A
WA          50-47 Kerry          No result                 N/A
AK            59-37 Bush         61-37 Bush               R + 2
HI             61-39 Kerry         82-18 Obama            D + 21



Figure that this bloc of voters will get larger in 2012 (it will be under 35 instead of under 30) and that it will be no less liberal-leaning by then. I notice that the youngest voters vote much more Democratic than older voters in practically every state.

The significance? Younger voters will supplant older voters in the electorate as older ones die or go senile and no longer vote. If you figure that the voters in a state like Virginia (which voted about 53-46 for Obama) had young voters going 63-34 for Obama.  So the youngest 16 years of voters in Virginia voted 63-34 for Obama, then the rest of the electorate voted  about 50-50 for Obama.

The math:

(1/4)x(63%) + (3/4) N = 53%

N =49.7%.

Next time with nothing more than the appearance of new young voters and the disappearance of older voters to death or senility, (round up 49.7% to 50%)

(20/64) x 63% + (44/64) x 50% = 54.1%

With no other change than new voters supplanting older voters, such suggests that Obama will win Virginia about 54-44-2.   That's roughly a 1.5% change in favor of Obama without doing much.

With someone else's guess on how Congressional seats will be re-apportioned and that the Favorite Son effect will disappear from Arizona (unless Senator John Kyl runs, which I think unlikely). This assumes that Obama will face an opponent as strong as John McCain was in 2008 (which itself is a huge assumption) :

Overpowering Obama win (20%+)
Strong Obama win (10-20%)
Modest Obama win (5-10%)
Weak Obama win (under 5%)
Weak GOP win (under 5%)
Modest GOP win (5-10%)
Strong GOP win (10%-20%)
Overpowering GOP win (20%+)
Nebraska: splits its electoral votes



(Nebraska splits its electoral votes, and the map fails to show it):

NE-01 is "Modest GOP"
NE-02 is "Weak Obama"
NE-03 is "Overwhelming GOP"
the state at large is "Strong GOP"

Obama wins of 2008 are solidified everywhere, and many viewers will be turning channels as the suspense fails to develop. 

Young voters in Georgia are not particularly liberal -- probably many of them are military, and the military tends to attract conservative-leaning young adults. Georgia, close as it was for Obama in 2008, will not go for him.  Older voters in the Dakotas aren't as conservative as those in Kansas, but younger voters in the Dakotas are too close to 50-50 to swing either state. Maybe farm-and-ranch life is good for ensuring that kids really are chips off the old block, so to speak, even in politics. 


 

This is before other things happen -- like shifts in regional loyalties, unusually poor or good performance by the President, diplomatic successes and failures, change in the political culture for unpredictable reasons,  partisan bickering, severe gaps or their consistent absence, the presence or absence of a strong GOP candidate (does anyone really know Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee well as a politician?), and of course economic realities. We don't know how those will break.

Some things will be much the same in 2012 as in 2008: George W. Bush, the last Republican President that anyone will know in 2012, will be no less or more beloved (ahem!) than he was in 2008. The campaign apparatus that Barack Obama established in 2008 will be up and running in 2012 and it will be as effective as it was in 2008.  Favorite son effects are real, but they can be reversed as well as established -- which explains how I have Arizona as a likely Obama pickup.

This model suggests that Obama will solidify the Blue Firewall with such states as Virginia, Iowa, and New Hampshire as double-digit victories. Colorado, perhaps -- except that I lack the data, so I can't suggest that Obama will win the state by any more than he did in 2008.

It's a predictive model based on such little information as is available now. Polls will go up and down. Those for Harry Truman went up with every military advance by our side in the Korean War and went down with ever retreat by our side. How some legislation goes in 2009 may have lesser effects upon day-to-day polling.

[Zarn]

The problem is that you aren't basing it any any of the actual data coming out.

[Rowan]

So you said that Obama won the 18-29 vote in MT by a 61-37. Then why is his favorables with them only 51-47? Not much of an "age wave" if you ask me.

[5280]

Update my prediction map...changed it around a bit.  Made Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon and Missouri lean Obama. Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio lean REP for now.  This all depends on who is running for the REPs and how Obama is doing later on.

Folks, 2012 will be close election to watch.  Don't expect it to be anything like 2008, thank god!

DEM: 276
REP: 262

[Phony Moderate]

My current prediction:

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's impossible to predict 2012 right now. If the economy has turned around and we do not experience a double dip recession, Obama will win reelection easily.

[Eraserhead]

Wow, so many people on both sides speaking with certainty about an election that won't occur until late 2012. lol.

[fezzyfestoon]

Wow, so many people on both sides speaking with certainty about an election that won't occur until late 2012. lol.

It's pretty funny, but I must remind people that they are only contributing to their own as well as all of our future annoyance come 2012 when BRTD feels the need to bump EVERY SINGLE thread with a prediction in it.

[Psychic Octopus]

Well, its exciting! This is the do or die moment for Obama, and the future of his term rests in his monumental decisions. it's no wonder so many are predicting.

[Eraserhead]

Well, its exciting! This is the do or die moment for Obama, and the future of his term rests in his monumental decisions. it's no wonder so many are predicting.

Is it? How do we know that? Speculation can be fun but people should probably stop speaking in absolute terms.

[fezzyfestoon]

Well, its exciting! This is the do or die moment for Obama, and the future of his term rests in his monumental decisions. it's no wonder so many are predicting.

NOTHING else could possibly happen in the next three years to change the momentum of Obama's term?  Someone doesn't remember our last President very well, which is ironic considering his apparent assertion that Americans' political memories go back quite a bit farther than they actually do.

[Tender Branson]

Nevada (Mason Dixon)

44% Favorable
43% Unfavorable
13% Neutral

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from August 17 through August 18, 2009. A total of 400 registered Nevada voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in state elections.

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/august_2009_4_polls.html

[pbrower2a]

Nevada again:

Nevada caught everyone by surprise in Election 2008. The state seems to have been drifting D because of its urbanization and the appearance of a large number of Hispanic voters.  The economic meltdown of 2008 hit Nevada hard and may have been the difference between a bare Obama victory and a huge one -- of course at the worst possible time for a Republican in Nevada since at least 1964.  The 2008 results suggested that Nevada had become a firm part of the Blue Firewall even if it wasn't quite so.

The change from a previous poll to this one is itself subtle even if the color change isn't.  Nevada is probably "Shaky Democrat", and the time for deciding whether Nevada is other than a swing state will be November 2010, when a Governorship (Republican incumbent) and perhaps a Senate seat (if John Ensign has had to vacate it after a sex scandal and possible obstruction of justice) will be up for grabs. 

Ensign won Nevada firmly in 2006 -- but I don't think that he could have won re-election in 2008 even before the sex scandal broke. After the sex scandal... it apparently didn't fall under the "What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas" rule.

[Phony Moderate]

Gallup:

Approve - 54%
Disapprove - 38%