The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[Poundingtherock]

Maryland
http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Latest%20Poll.pdf

52/43 approval/disapproval

[Poundingtherock]

California

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/APR_Obama1010.pdf

53/42 approval/disapproval among registered voters.

[Poundingtherock]

Keep in mind too that Obama's approval rating is among adults.  His 50% unfavorable rating is among adults as well.

So the complaints about Gallup's likely voter model, some of which I consider valid and credible, wouldn't apply to what gallup is finding for Obama's personal numbers among adults.

[Poundingtherock]

http://www.keloland.com/news/campaign/poll2010/

south dakota: 27/53 favorable/unfavorable

That comes out to 36% favorables nationally.

[Poundingtherock]

Battleground poll:

http://www.politico.com/static/PPM170_101022_bg42questionnaire.html

Obama favorable/unfavorable: 46/51

[Poundingtherock]

FYI: obama's favorables in battleground fell by 14 points in one month.

54/45 to 46/51 favorable/unfavorable

[Poundingtherock]

Same as it always is: likely registered voters.  It's quasi likely voter screen, but one that doesn't make that big of a difference.  Obama is at 47/50 among adults in Gallup, so they are consistent.

[Poundingtherock]

Among registered voters

SurveyUSA-North Carolina
http://www.wral.com/asset/news/local/politics/2010/10/26/8514186/WRAL_News_poll_Oct._26_2010_.PDF


Obama: 34/54 favorable/unfavorable

That comes out to a favorable rating of 36% nationally

[Poundingtherock]

It's like christmas when Obama's approval ratings come in:

Among registered voters for CNN:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/10/27/topstate8.pdf

Nevada: 44/52
Colorado: 44/51
Penn: 46/47
California: 54/40
Kentucky: 36/58

[Poundingtherock]

Because I'm trying to show how much Obama is struggling by citing to registered voters because of the Democrat Party narrative about that the reason why Obama's numbers are so low is because his voters are getting screened out by tight likely voter samples.

[Poundingtherock]

In case you haven't figured it out, I don't respect the "Democratic Party" [sic].  Therefore, I refer to it with a pejorative term.

CBS/NY Times has Obama at 31/42 favorable/unfavorable among independents.  Will the left continue to try and claim that independents only disapprove of Obama but like him personally?  CBS/NY Times is a pretty favorable pollster for Obama.  The sample includes 13% more  Obama voters than McCain voters and 9% more Democrats than Republicans.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/10/27/politics/main6997687.shtml?tag=contentMain

[Poundingtherock]

Just for comparison:

George W. Bush's favorable rating in the final CBS/NY Times poll taken right before the 2004 election was 48/42

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/10/12/politics/main3362530.shtml

So Obama's polling behind Bush in favorability right now, two years before his prospective re-election.  Two years after Bush posted a 48/42 favorable/unfavorable, he was down to 34/52.

The problem for Obama is that Obama is not polling well enough personally after only two years in office.  He hasn't even experienced the inevitable decline since most voters say they don't blame him primarily for the economic decline.  They have decided to dislike him personally even without blaming him.

[Poundingtherock]

The "compare Obama's ratings to Reagan's" logic is ridiculous.  Why?  Because if Obama's ratings were high right now, I could just say "compare Obama's ratings to George H.W. Bush's ratings."  The logic would be that since Obama's ratings are just as high Bush I's ratings, he'll lose re-election.   You'd find that logic laughable and rightly so.

[Poundingtherock]

Comparing his ratings to Bush II (not immediately after 9/11 as that would be unfair) is pretty reasonable given that the two were not separated by much in terms of time and the similarities in their political environments.

Comparisons to Reagan and Bush I are just way too old and from a different political era.

[Poundingtherock]

Yes, that poll is laughable.

So is any poll showing his  approval  rating positive.

[Poundingtherock]

Favorable/unfavorable in Indiana:

38/57

http://www.epicmra.com/press/Indiana_Oct2010_Media_Freq.pdf

That 37% poll is bs but he's not far too off from that number if these state numbers are correct.

[Poundingtherock]

If you guys weren't clueless, you'd know that Fox News/Opinion Dynamics had consistently been leaning in Obama's favor according to Nate Silver.

Now, Fox News/Pulse is a different story.  They use a different pollster for their state polling.

[Poundingtherock]

CNN

Obama favorable/unfavorable: 48/48

[Poundingtherock]

Gallup is at 45/47 for what it's worth.

[Poundingtherock]

Nate Silver has SurveyUSA at #1.

So even if you want to slam Rasmussen, SurveyUSA's numbers were worse for Obama because they polled his favorable rating.  Of course, some of the Republican hacks here don't like SurveyUSA.

[Poundingtherock]

Is West virginia now in a category with Utah?

I suspect a good percentage, perhaps around 15% of those who disapprove of him, would vote for him in WV.

I have a tough time seeing any Democrat fail to get 40% in West Virginia.

It looks like SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have been validated as to Obama's numbers in Missouri and Indiana.  I recall that a lot of people questioned how his numbers in Missouri could look like his numbers in the deep south but that's what the exit poll showed.

[Poundingtherock]

Keep in mind though that Shaheen is a much stronger and better candidate than Obama in SC.

A lot of people who would vote for Shaheen over Haley wouldn't vote for Obama over Palin.  yes, Haley performed poorly but that may just be that the guy is a stud in SC.

Look at the 2004 Alaska Senate race.  A lot of people who voted Tony Knowles over Lisa Murkowski voted for Bush over Kerry. (to be perfectly honest, I'm not sure who I would have voted for between Knowles and Murkowski in 2004 if I were an alaskan given how much of a b*tch Murkowski is).

[Poundingtherock]

It's not plausible for the black percentage of the SC electorate to be 5% larger in 2012 than in 2008.  25-26% is likely the high water mark.

Shaheen's performance probably is the best Obama can hope for in SC and again, he still lost by 4 to Haley.  Haley had some weaknesses but those weaknesses would have gone away had she faced Obama instead of a strong candidate like Shaheen.

[Poundingtherock]

I'll be honest...Nevada and Colorado seem to be trending left.

I'm not certain Reid doesn't also beat Lowden and Tark or Bennett doesn't also beat Norton.

It looks like the West in general is moving to the left while the Midwest is moving heavily to the right.

The Northeast and South are what they are but there are some bright spots in both areas for the GOP and Dems (south carolina in the south and new hampshire in the north).

[Poundingtherock]

USA Today/Gallup has him at 42% approval.  His disapproval is likely around 55-56% in the poll.