When will the next Supreme Court vacancy occur?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I predict Stevens will retire in Obama's first year.

[© tweed]

Breyer, Stevens, and Ginsburg all probably *should* step down within the next three years or so, based on age.  the chance also exists that Scalia dies within the next four or eight years, which would represent a 'pickup' for the 'liberals'

[Lief 🗽]

Stevens will probably go until 2011 (I think) so that he becomes the longest serving justice.

[Ogre Mage]

It is almost certain that Stevens (88) will retire sometime during Obama's first term.  It is believed that Ginsburg (75) wants to stay on longer, hopefully until sometime in Obama's second term.

David Souter is only 69 but hates life in Washington.  His problems are mental, though, not physical, so all bets are off in terms of a prediction.

Based on what I am reading, the leading candidates for the Supreme Court are Sonia Sotomayor and Diane Wood.  Both were appointed to the Federal Court of Appeals by President Clinton. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

Stevens will almost certainly retire in the next four years, and Souter, who is said to dislike the court, will probably retire too. I wouldn't be surprised if Ginsburg retires, as she's older and has had some health problems in the past. Scalia is 72 and would be 80 at the end of Obama's 2nd term, but I very, very much doubt he'll retire if Obama would name his successor.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Stevens will retire in June, with no other vacancies until 2013, at least.

[cinyc]

Astrology says that Scalia, Gingsburg and Stevens will retire in Obama's first term.

Hopefully Obama can appoint justices that can recite the presidential oath correctly.

The only way Scalia will retire under a Democrat president is if he dies or is completely incapacitated.  No way he lets the Democrats replace him with a liberal.

I think Ginsburg might leave the court first, perhaps in the summer.  She has had health issues.