The worst the best and the likely.

[Shira]

The worst: Bush -338, Kerry – 200

 

____________________
The best: Bush -167, Kerry – 371





________________________
The likely: Bush - 264, Kerry – 274

[A18]

Would you Democrats stop insulting Virginia? Kansas will go Kerry before we will.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Worst: Kerry takes
HI,WA, CA, IL, MI, NY, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, DC, MD, and 1 ME elector
Likely:
Kerry takes
HI, CA, OR, WA, NM, CO, MN, IA, IL, MI, FL, WV, PA,MD,DE,DC,NJ,NY, and New England

Best:
Kerry takes
HI,CA,OR,WA,NV,NM,CO,MN,IA,MO,AR,WI,IL,MI,FL,VA,WV,OH, and the rest of the north-east

[A18]

Yes. If all Republicans are poisoned before the election, Virginia might go for Kerry.

[Shira]

Yes. If all Republicans are poisoned before the election, Virginia

Since 1988 VA is consistently moving  to the Dem direction in an avarage pace of 0.29% per year. Check the difference between the VA Rep number and the national Rep number. In 1988 this number was by 3.46 higher than in 2000

[A18]

Shira--

1988 was a landslide.
1992 Ross Perot got 13%
1996 Ross Perot got 6%
2000 was less than the 1988 landslide

So 1992 and 1996 can't be used. What you're really saying is that Bush got less of the VA vote than his father.

The Republican numbers are:
45% 1992
47% 1996
52% 2000

The Democrat numbers are:
41% 1992
45% 1996
44% 2000

So the trend is what now?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Would you Democrats stop insulting Virginia? Kansas will go Kerry before we will.

shut up, you know that's not true.  Virginia is not the conserative capital of the world dude.

Anyhoo

BEST CASE FOR KERRY   406 - 132



BEST CASE FOR BUSH  358 - 180

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Shira--

1988 was a landslide.
1992 Ross Perot got 13%
1996 Ross Perot got 6%
2000 was less than the 1988 landslide

So 1992 and 1996 can't be used. What you're really saying is that Bush got less of the VA vote than his father.

The Republican numbers are:
45% 1992
47% 1996
52% 2000

The Democrat numbers are:
41% 1992
45% 1996
44% 2000

So the trend is what now?

are you completely oblivious to the fact perot affected the election greatly in 92 and 96, and that the voting patterns of the DC suburbs have trended dem for a long time now?  

[A18]

I said:

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You said:

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I see no link between these two statements other than that they're both English. Please clarify.

I know that Kansas will not go Kerry before Virginia will. This is what we call exaggerating. I do know there's no way in hell Virginia is going for Kerry.

[Shira]

I said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I see no link between these two statements other than that they're both English. Please clarify.

I know that Kansas will not go Kerry before Virginia will. This is what we call exaggerating. I do know there's no way in hell Virginia is going for Kerry.

If nationally Kerry gets 52% he will carry VA.

[nomorelies]

Shira can you e-mail me. I have something that might interst you.

[A18]

I said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I see no link between these two statements other than that they're both English. Please clarify.

I know that Kansas will not go Kerry before Virginia will. This is what we call exaggerating. I do know there's no way in hell Virginia is going for Kerry.

If nationally Kerry gets 52% he will carry VA.

No. He needs more like 55%.