Vulnerable Democrats in '10.

[Jacobtm]

There are only 15 Class III Democratic senators. This is partly because '04 was such a good Republican year, and any Democrat who was elected did quite well. The exception to this was Salazar, who won narrowly, but he's obviously not running in '10.

Bayh, Evan (IN)
Boxer, Barbara (CA)
Dodd, Christopher J. (CT)
Dorgan, Byron L. (ND)
Feingold, Russell D. (WI)
Inouye, Daniel K. (HI)
Leahy, Patrick J. (VT)
Lincoln, Blanche L. (AR)
Mikulski, Barbara A. (MD)
Murray, Patty (WA)
Obama, Barack (IL) *Burris*
Reid, Harry (NV)
Salazar, Ken (CO) *Bennet*
Schumer, Charles E. (NY)
Wyden, Ron (OR)
Patterson's appointment (NY) *Kennedy?*

So, looking at this list, it seems that the only current Senator that might face some sort of serious challenger would be Harry Reid. Bennet (CO) Burris (IL), and Kennedy? (NY) are all untested, so we can probably consider them somewhat vulnerable, even though all their states are heavily Democratic.

But, beyond Reid, Bennet, Burris (possibly) and Kennedy (maybe?), do any other Democrats seem vulnerable?

[Keystone Phil]

Give Dorgan and Feingold real challengers (Hoeven for Dorgan and maybe Tommy Thompson for Feingold) and they'll have to really fight. That being said, Hoeven and Thompson always tease us and won't do it.

I'm waiting for people to laugh off the idea of Feingold being vulnerable but before you do, take a look at his results over the years. Not convincing at all.

I also think the Reid, Clinton and Obama seats could be competitive depending on the year and who is appointed to the Clinton and Obama seats.

[BM]

No.  This combined with the fact that they have some of their more vulnerable members up, it'll definitely be another tough year for Senate Republicans.

The only Republican upset possibilities require the best possible candidate in the state to run (Huckabee, Lingle, Hoeven, Rell, etc.), but those are all unlikely to impossible.

They should focus on the Clinton and Salazar seats, and hope Roland Burris decides to run for reelection.

[Mr.Phips]

Give Dorgan and Feingold real challengers (Hoeven for Dorgan and maybe Tommy Thompson for Feingold) and they'll have to really fight. That being said, Hoeven and Thompson always tease us and won't do it.

I'm waiting for people to laugh off the idea of Feingold being vulnerable but before you do, take a look at his results over the years. Not convincing at all.

I also think the Reid, Clinton and Obama seats could be competitive depending on the year and who is appointed to the Clinton and Obama seats.

No way the Clinton seat is competitive.  It is probably as hard as a Democrat winning in Texas for a Republican to win in New York now. 

[Jacobtm]

No way the Clinton seat is competitive.  It is probably as hard as a Democrat winning in Texas for a Republican to win in New York now. 

If Kennedy makes a fool of herself as a Senator, but runs for re-election, gets through a tough primary battle, and faces a competent campaign by Peter King, she could lose.

But it would have to be on the basis of Kennedy being personally unqualified.

[Keystone Phil]

If Kennedy makes a fool of herself as a Senator, but runs for re-election, gets through a tough primary battle, and faces a competent campaign by Peter King, she could lose.

But it would have to be on the basis of Kennedy being personally unqualified.

Bingo

[Torie]

Inouye might not run for re-election giving Lingle a chance, and maybe there is a God, and Washington state will finally tire of Patty Murray's air brainedness.

[BM]

I think Inouye has already announced his reelection plans. I guess he could change his mind.  Or die I guess. :/

[Keystone Phil]

and Washington state will finally tire of Patty Murray's air brainedness.

I entertain that idea as well. 

[BM]

I'd like to see that happen even though I'm inclined to supporting female candidates, but is there really anyone who could put up a serious challenge?

Dino Rossi? lol

[Keystone Phil]

Dino Rossi? lol

Maybe the Attorney General there.

[Ogre Mage]

maybe there is a God, and Washington state will finally tire of Patty Murray's air brainedness.

There will be no divine intervention in this case.  You all will have to continue to live with her.  The only thing which will stop Patty is a health mishap or a huge skeleton in the closet unexpectedly coming to light.

There are very strong rumors that Rob McKenna is far more interested in the governor's mansion in 2012.  Why would he throw that chance overboard in exchange for a very difficult race against an entrenched incumbent?

As for Dino Rossi, I agree with the LOL. 

[Nhoj]

Give Dorgan and Feingold real challengers (Hoeven for Dorgan and maybe Tommy Thompson for Feingold) and they'll have to really fight. That being said, Hoeven and Thompson always tease us and won't do it.

I'm waiting for people to laugh off the idea of Feingold being vulnerable but before you do, take a look at his results over the years. Not convincing at all.

I also think the Reid, Clinton and Obama seats could be competitive depending on the year and who is appointed to the Clinton and Obama seats.

ill agree that his results arent convincing but outside thompson the gop would still have a hard time beating him i think hes kinda one of those politicians who doesn't really grow support nor really lose it.
 now in a race between feingold and thompson i myself would likely have to support a third party as i like both of them too much so that might be one less vote for feingold.

i dont think reid will be very likely to lose sure hes unpopular but hes got machine politics on his side and the Nevada gop is rather lacking talent same with Illinois.
new york isn't likely either even with caroline.

[memphis]

Depending how things go for Obama, AR could be competitive.

[Lunar]

Depending how things go for Obama, AR could be competitive.

Do the Republicans have a candidate?

Everything and everything I hear says Huck doesn't want to become a Senator.  Who else could win? I mean, the Republicans didn't even run a candidate in Arkansas in 2008

[BM]

Yeah, there's really no one else. Lincoln is safe as can be. The Huckster would be the dream candidate, but he has no interest in being a legislator or "1 of 100".

Apparently former US Attorney Tim Griffin is considering a run. He was one of Alberto Gonzalez's appointments.





What are the chances of Cathy McMorris Rodgers eventually challenging one of the two Washington senators?  She was just been given a leadership role in the Republican caucus, which could enhance her profile.

[TheresNoMoney]

I don't really see any truly vulnerable incumbents that are already serving.  In terms of replacement Senators, Bennet in Colorado might be somewhat vulnerable.

[AndrewTX]

Dodd could be vunerable. Not by a republican though, in a primary yes. If we can get someone like Simmons or Shays, I'd say Dodd would win with less than 58%, if its Rell, than I could see a close race, but it would still be lean dem.

[Padfoot]

The apointees (or their open seats) will definitely have some degree of vulnerability but with the GOP is weak or on the wane in all 4 of those states.  Lincoln will need to watch her back in Arkansas even if Huckabee doesn't run but I suspect she'll be able to pull a Landrieu and make it through.  I actually think Reid is going to be the most vulnerable.  He's completely spineless and unless he can attach himself enough to a popular Obama program he's not going to have much of a base to work with.  Once again though, the GOP will need a top tier challenger and I'm pretty sure the Nevada GOP is dealing with some nasty stuff right now.  In summary, here's how I see the top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats shaping up:

1. Nevada
2. Colorado
3. Arkansas
4. Illinois
5. Delaware

I don't think the GOP will have time to worry about most of these though since they'll likely be defending their own appointee in Texas and open seats in Florida, Kansas, and Missouri (and Ohio is rumored also).  Plus the Democrats are gunning for incumbents in Kentucky, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania already.  At this point, its shaping up to be a rough year for the Republicans.  All they can hope for is that Obama and Congressional Democrats have enough major screw-ups to turn the tides.  Otherwise I think the best they can expect is to come out even, if that.

[Mr.Phips]

The apointees (or their open seats) will definitely have some degree of vulnerability but with the GOP is weak or on the wane in all 4 of those states.  Lincoln will need to watch her back in Arkansas even if Huckabee doesn't run but I suspect she'll be able to pull a Landrieu and make it through.  I actually think Reid is going to be the most vulnerable.  He's completely spineless and unless he can attach himself enough to a popular Obama program he's not going to have much of a base to work with.  Once again though, the GOP will need a top tier challenger and I'm pretty sure the Nevada GOP is dealing with some nasty stuff right now.  In summary, here's how I see the top 5 most vulnerable Democratic seats shaping up:

1. Nevada
2. Colorado
3. Arkansas
4. Illinois
5. Delaware

I don't think the GOP will have time to worry about most of these though since they'll likely be defending their own appointee in Texas and open seats in Florida, Kansas, and Missouri (and Ohio is rumored also).  Plus the Democrats are gunning for incumbents in Kentucky, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania already.  At this point, its shaping up to be a rough year for the Republicans.  All they can hope for is that Obama and Congressional Democrats have enough major screw-ups to turn the tides.  Otherwise I think the best they can expect is to come out even, if that.

The only way Delaware would be competitive is if Republicans somehow got Mike Castle to run for the seat and they would almost certainly lose his House seat if he left it. 

[Lunar]

Mike would NEVER run against Beau.  He's been friends with Joe Biden for >40 years and he's suffering from health problems.

[TheresNoMoney]

Castle is already in his 70's, I can't imagine that he runs for Senate. And he has definitely had health problems recently.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Remember, appointed Senators have a poor track record of winning re-election.  That said, since two of the appointed seats are in strong Democratic bastions (IL and NY), the only seat of those three that the Republicans have any real hope is Bennet in Colorado.  Illinois is possible if Burris runs for re-election.  If he loses in the primaries, Republicans can write that state off.

I don't think it will as bad a year for the Republicans, since the Democrats have more seats up for re-election than they did in 2006 or 2008, but it still won't be a great year by normal Republican standards.

[Mr.Phips]

Remember, appointed Senators have a poor track record of winning re-election.  That said, since two of the appointed seats are in strong Democratic bastions (IL and NY), the only seat of those three that the Republicans have any real hope is Bennet in Colorado.  Illinois is possible if Burris runs for re-election.  If he loses in the primaries, Republicans can write that state off.

I don't think it will as bad a year for the Republicans, since the Democrats have more seats up for re-election than they did in 2006 or 2008, but it still won't be a great year by normal Republican standards.

I think that appointed Senators rule is pretty much discredited now.  Murkowski was appointed and she won in 2004, same with Menenedez in 2006, and Wicker and Bourasso in 2008. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Remember, appointed Senators have a poor track record of winning re-election.  That said, since two of the appointed seats are in strong Democratic bastions (IL and NY), the only seat of those three that the Republicans have any real hope is Bennet in Colorado.  Illinois is possible if Burris runs for re-election.  If he loses in the primaries, Republicans can write that state off.

I don't think it will as bad a year for the Republicans, since the Democrats have more seats up for re-election than they did in 2006 or 2008, but it still won't be a great year by normal Republican standards.

None of those appointees were from especially competitive states.  Appointed Senators really don't have many advantages, though two years does build a decent head start.

I think that appointed Senators rule is pretty much discredited now.  Murkowski was appointed and she won in 2004, same with Menenedez in 2006, and Wicker and Bourasso in 2008.