Why Harry Reid Can Be Beat

[Kevin]

SHERMAN FREDERICK: Why Harry can be beat

Not endeared by Nevadans

Over the holidays, a spirited debate took place about the U.S. senator Nevadans love to hate: Harry Reid.

It began after The Wall Street Journal published a Dec. 27 story headlined: "Sen. Reid Hits the Ground Running in Uphill Re-Election Bid," to which I penned (or shall I say "pixeled"?) an Internet ditty entitled: "Can Harry Reid be knocked off?" A week-long discussion on my blog ensued. (See www.lvrj.com/blogs/sherm/)

I'm not sure why Harry would again dare voters to give him the boot. He'll celebrate his 71st birthday on Dec. 2, 2010. At this stage of the majority leader's career, he doesn't have much, if anything, to prove. And, let's face it, the rigors of campaigning in the vast expanse of Nevada demand stamina.

Not to mention that in the history of Nevada elections, there's a fat folder labeled "The Bigger They Are," and it's filled with horror stories of entrenched incumbents who never saw it coming. Sen. Howard Cannon learned that the hard way.

But apparently Nevada's most powerful senator ever is going to spin the election wheel once more. It begs the question: Can he (should he is another question) be beat? With the right opponent, I'd say the chances are fair to good, and the blueprint can be found in Reid's 1998 re-election bid against Rep. John Ensign. At the time, Ensign had no business mounting a credible challenge to Harry, who was in the prime of his career.

It was only some 48 months earlier that Ensign had surprised longtime U.S. Rep. Jim Bilbray. Ensign was a virtual no-name to statewide voters. A lightweight on any scale. I knew John because he was a member of my Rotary Club. But with all due respect to my fellow Southwest Rotarians, membership there isn't exactly a logical stepping stone to the U.S. Senate.

Yet Ensign beat Bilbray and then came within 429 votes of unseating Reid. (Had Ensign sought a second recount, some say, the outcome might have flipped.)

So, what's Ensign got that Reid doesn't? The only word to describe it is "likability." While age, looks and speechifying were in Ensign's favor in 1998, it was Reid's gloomy personality that nearly gave the election to his young opponent.

As hard as it may be to believe, given Reid's political stature, Harry has difficulty connecting with people. Before large groups, he projects a zombie vibe. In person, he appears preoccupied. Looks like a smile might hurt. Never seems comfortable. And perhaps his greatest re-election liability is that he too quickly defaults to bunker mentality with constituents, creating unnecessary suspicion and animosity. Unlike his mentor, former Gov. Mike O'Callaghan, he can't seem to find ways to charm critics.

Over the years, those characteristics have sown a negative cumulative effect on Nevadans.

I wouldn't say Nevadans hate Harry, but it is entirely fair to say that Nevadans have a ho-hum relationship with their longtime senior senator. "Reid" and "endeared" are two words not found in the same sentence.

This ambivalence is remarkable. Reid's achievements rightfully put him in the company of Nevada political luminaries like Cannon, Sen. Pat McCarran, Sen. Paul Laxalt and Sen. Alan Bible. Yet a good chunk of voting Nevadans treat Reid like a bad haircut -- with teeth-gritting toleration.

What does that tell you?

It should tell you that if Harry runs again, you can count on Nevadans giving his opponent a long, hard look.

And, if there's another John Ensign out there, count on more than that.


Sherman Frederick (sfrederick@reviewjournal.com) is publisher of the Review-Journal and president of Stephens Media.

http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/37058569.html

If all of this is true, then if the Republicans can come up with a half-decent challenger then Reid is in trouble.

[BM]

He should be beat. Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be "another Ensign" in Nevada right now.

Imagine if Ensign managed to beat Reid in 1998 (he officially lost by only 428 votes). Harry Reid would have never been a very well known name.

[Keystone Phil]

I want Porter.

[Holmes]

I want Titus.

TURN ON HIM, TITUS!

[Lief 🗽]

I support efforts to defeat Harry Reid. Maybe then we can get a real Majority Leader.

[Keystone Phil]

I support efforts to defeat Harry Reid. Maybe then we can get a real Majority Leader.

I'd love to get Kyl as the Republican leader and Durbin as the Dem leader. It would mean battles between my favorite Senator and one of my least favorite.

[Lunar]

This article fails to note the Democratic surge in registration

I support efforts to defeat Harry Reid. Maybe then we can get a real Majority Leader.

The two Democrats jockying to replace him are Schumer and Durbin.  I think Schumer has more talent but Durbin has that whole Obama thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nevada's had a little bit of trouble with property bubbles, hasn't it. Just as a general comment, it'll be interesting to see how areas like that act over the next few years.

[Lief 🗽]

This article fails to note the Democratic surge in registration

I support efforts to defeat Harry Reid. Maybe then we can get a real Majority Leader.

The two Democrats jockying to replace him are Schumer and Durbin.  I think Schumer has more talent but Durbin has that whole Obama thing.

Schumer would be best. Durbin's one of my favorite Senators, but I think he'd be too close to Obama, and Schumer seems to be more of a cutthroat/forceful kind of leader.

[Keystone Phil]

Schumer would be best. Durbin's one of my favorite Senators, but I think he'd be too close to Obama, and Schumer seems to be more of a cutthroat/forceful kind of leader.

I'd love either of them in the spot. Those two would really energize the GOP. There's something about Reid as leader. We use him on a lot of stuff but he doesn't really motivate people one way or the other. I've always disliked him but just because he seems like an annoying lawn gnome. Durbin and Schumer get the blood boiling. 

[BM]

Yeah, Reid is too boring and monotone to inspire real hatred, or love for that matter.

Schumer is already loathed by the opposition. He'd be fun.

[Lief 🗽]

Schumer would be best. Durbin's one of my favorite Senators, but I think he'd be too close to Obama, and Schumer seems to be more of a cutthroat/forceful kind of leader.

I'd love either of them in the spot. Those two would really energize the GOP. There's something about Reid as leader. We use him on a lot of stuff but he doesn't really motivate people one way or the other. I've always disliked him but just because he seems like an annoying lawn gnome. Durbin and Schumer get the blood boiling. 

Really? I understand Schumer, but what's there to hate about Durbin? He's just a run-of-the-mill, boring liberal.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I support efforts to defeat Harry Reid. Maybe then we can get a real Majority Leader.

Agreed.  Chuck Schumer for Majority Leader.  I can't stand Durbin.

[memphis]

Anybody have favorability numbers on him? That'd be the true test.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This article fails to note the Democratic surge in registration

I support efforts to defeat Harry Reid. Maybe then we can get a real Majority Leader.

The two Democrats jockying to replace him are Schumer and Durbin.  I think Schumer has more talent but Durbin has that whole Obama thing.

Registration is the job of the RNC. Let them deal with that. We should focus on the candidates right now. Good candidates drive registration(Obama anyone?).

Anybody have favorability numbers on him? That'd be the true test.

If you mean Reid's favorability the last poll I saw had him in the 30's with 55% disapproving. As I've stated before thats Rick Santorum territory. We will have to see if it stays that way. Interestingly that same poll still had Reid leading Porter, but only by 3 or 4 and well below 50.

I support efforts to defeat Harry Reid. Maybe then we can get a real Majority Leader.

I'd love to get Kyl as the Republican leader and Durbin as the Dem leader. It would mean battles between my favorite Senator and one of my least favorite.

Oh, I long for the day when Kyl is GOP leader. McConnell is just so unenthusiastic.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Harry Reid can be beat? Somebody send up a flare. I'm shocked.

[justfollowingtheelections]

I don't see it happening.

[Keystone Phil]

Schumer would be best. Durbin's one of my favorite Senators, but I think he'd be too close to Obama, and Schumer seems to be more of a cutthroat/forceful kind of leader.

I'd love either of them in the spot. Those two would really energize the GOP. There's something about Reid as leader. We use him on a lot of stuff but he doesn't really motivate people one way or the other. I've always disliked him but just because he seems like an annoying lawn gnome. Durbin and Schumer get the blood boiling. 

Really? I understand Schumer, but what's there to hate about Durbin? He's just a run-of-the-mill, boring liberal.

He always struck me as a loud mouth hack whenever I'd watch him on the Senate floor (of all places).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I wouldn't be shocked in the Democrats net a couple of Senate seats in 2010, while losing... that's too strong a word.... while cleaning out this deadwood.

[Lunar]

It's possible, but it's important to remember that the Nevada we knew 4 years ago is a different Nevada that we know today.  Reid doesn't enjoy strong favorables, but a lot of that is from liberals who will vote for him anyway because there is little chance Reid faces a credible primary opponent (who won't be "disappeared").  Reid sucks at national politics, he can't play hardball, he's stuck in an overly partisan persona, and he's not particularly likable, but this is still a state in the middle of a Demcoratic surge that I imagine still has to plateau.   I mean, there are more registered Democrats in Washoe County (!!!!) than Republicans now.  That's be like more Republicans registered in Cook County Illinois than Democrats or something. 

I think I might join the progressive netroots and hope for Reid's removal.  I never claimed to be a moderate and Durbin or Schumer would be a lot more effective.  I don't really care at all about that 60 mark.



But I just don't see it.  This is the *one* seat that's explicitly vulnerable and yet there is still not obvious challenger.  Every explicitly or moderately vulnerable seat on the Republican side (MO, OH, FL, NC, KY) has a leading opponent already.  And a number of the unsure seats (OK, NH, KS) have leading opponents that are debating still about running.  The Republicans really don't have an equivalent..... Arnuld & Lingle and that's it (and Lingle only if Inouye retires).