Florida

[Lunar]

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0509/Cornyn_expects_to_land_Crist_for_Senate.html

I don't even read these stories, but I'll pass them along

[Lunar]

this one I read
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/florida-gopers-look-to-specter-for-inspiration-2009-05-05.html

[Lunar]

profile of Marco:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/481shezi.asp?pg=1

[Sensei]

wow. I don't want anyone to win this one. Even though Meek went to my high school.

[Lunar]

Crist is announcing Tuesday.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/miami-dade/breaking-news/story/1042057.html

[Lunar]

url says it all

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/05/iorio-wont-run-statewide.html

[Zarn]

Rubio is the man. I'm not saying that, because I'm Cuban American. He just is.

http://theamericanscene.com/2008/12/02/marco-rubio-for-senate

Question is how many libertarians and socially moderate conservatives are there in FL, and will they like him enough?

[Lunar]

Primarying the state's popular centrist candidate by drifting to the solidly [far?] right positions and posturing would be unlikely to endear him to most of the state's population.  Meek, who is looking guaranteed to win his primary, will able to posture himself in a less idealogical, partisan way.

I don't know how many libertarians and socially moderates there are in Florida, probably less than other states due to its elderly and dixiecrat segments of the electorate.


That article is fairly outdated too.

[Lunar]

[Zarn]

Primarying the state's popular centrist candidate by drifting to the solidly [far?] right positions and posturing would be unlikely to endear him to most of the state's population.  Meek, who is looking guaranteed to win his primary, will able to posture himself in a less idealogical, partisan way.

I don't know how many libertarians and socially moderates there are in Florida, probably less than other states due to its elderly and dixiecrat segments of the electorate.


That article is fairly outdated too.

It doesn't matter. It's not why I put it in there.

In the article, it says he is not one to interfere into other people's private lives. He is fiscally conservative. How is that not appealing to centrist and libertarians?

Why would a libertarian support someone who supports any of the Dems' current stimulus packages/bailouts or the budget?

[Lunar]

Primarying the state's popular centrist candidate by drifting to the solidly [far?] right positions and posturing would be unlikely to endear him to most of the state's population.  Meek, who is looking guaranteed to win his primary, will able to posture himself in a less idealogical, partisan way.

I don't know how many libertarians and socially moderates there are in Florida, probably less than other states due to its elderly and dixiecrat segments of the electorate.


That article is fairly outdated too.

It doesn't matter. It's not why I put it in there.

In the article, it says he is not one to interfere into other people's private lives. He is fiscally conservative. How is that not appealing to centrist and libertarians?

Why would a libertarian support someone who supports any of the Dems' current stimulus packages/bailouts or the budget?

What are his moderate positions?  All generic conservatives say they don't want to interfere in people's private lives, even if actually they think sodomy should be illegal.

You're right that if someone only bases their vote on fiscal conservatism, no matter what the candidate's social positions are, Marco will be their only candidate in this race.  Crist has also taken centrist or even liberal positions on a number of other issues, so there is some dissatisfaction with him.

But he is a popular governor who will have the establishment support, and that goes a long way.

I mentioned that the article was outdated to point out that it does not reflect the complexities of the race -- Rubio will have to tack hard right against Crist to pick up momentum.

[Zarn]

He only needs to be fiscally conservative. He doesn't need to be socially conservative at all. Most socons are fiscally conservative, anyway.

He could even throw the socons a bone. It wouldn't anger libertarians, as long as he is not Thune/ Palin/ etc.

[Lunar]

Well, his passion seems to be on fiscal conservatism.  Some criticism seems apparent of him potentially killing an anti-illegal immigration bill.

http://www.redcounty.com/marco-rubio-illegal-immigration

[Verily]

It's worth noting than many of the most extreme social conservatives in Florida are still registered Democrats. I don't know if that changed much in 2008 due to reregistration to vote against McCain (for Huckabee or Romney), although the disorganization of the Huckabee and Romney campaigns by that stage as well as the lack of prep time would suggest not (compared, say, to the Obama campaign's serious and effective drive to switch partisan affiliations in Pennsylvania, which had a lot more time and money to be invested).

Florida has closed primaries; the fact that some of McCain's strongest counties in the GE have 50-60% Democratic registration or more means that the social conservatives will not be out in force in the Florida Republican primaries.

[Lunar]

Crist is strongly favored to win the primary, but he can still lose.

[Keystone Phil]

Of course Crist chooses my Birthday to announce he's getting in the race. 

Eh, as I said elsewhere, I don't have much of a problem with the guy. I just prefer Rubio.

[Ronnie]

Now, who will replace Crist as governor?

[Lunar]

Don't even bother trying to figure that out for the moment Ronnie.  It's going to be a Republican free-for-all on that side.

Crist is strongly favored to win the primary, but he can still lose.

Of course he can lose, but he isn't Hillary Clinton.  I think he can handle a race against minor candidates in a state he's almost universally loved in.

I disagree with this.  If Count Chocula gets heavily involved against that stimulus-supporting, tax-raising [even if just a cigarette tax], liberal, he could easily face a fairly competitive primary.  Crist's popularity stems, from some extent, that he does relatively well among Independents and Democrats.

Sheesh, just a few posts ago I was defending Crist's strengths.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'm going to have to agree with Lunar here.  In fact, I think Crist is the underdog - its going to be a bumpy ride.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Now, who will replace Crist as governor?

It will probably be Alex Sink vs. Bill McCollum or Charles Bronson (term-limited Ag Comm'r, not the dead actor).

[Lunar]

I'm going to have to agree with Lunar here.  In fact, I think Crist is the underdog - its going to be a bumpy ride.

Whoah, he'll have the establishment support both nationwide and locally, widespread name recognition, and boatloads of money, to call Crist an underdog is an exercise is absurdity.  He isn't passionately hated by the Republican primary electorate...yet.

[Lunar]

Markos wrote a great letter, we need CfG for Meek to have a chance:

Dear Club for Growth,

I'm a big fan! Your work the past several years has been stellar. I'm not sure how we pick up an Idaho House seat without your help, and I'm really happy with your work taking out incumbent Republican Joe Schwartz in MI-07, making it much easier for Democrats to pick up that seat the following cycle. Throw in Andrew Harris in MD-01, and it's clear that your handywork is a godsend for Democrats. Keep it up!

However, as you well know, you can never rest on your laurels in this business. I want to bring your attention to Florida, where "moderate" boogeyman Charlie Crist will announce Tuesday his entry into the state's 2010 Senate race. I don't have to remind you that Crist stood side-by-side with President Barack Obama to announce his support for his stimulus package. Burns, doesn't it? Here's a picture you can use to great effect.



In the 2006 Connecticut Democratic primary, we called a similar picture "the kiss". Feel free to steal that idea.

Former Florida Speaker Marco Rubio is a solid conservative in your vein. I don't know if he's viable in a Republican Party, but if not him, I hope you find someone else. Someone like Crist has no business winning Republican primaries in your modern GOP. So I look forward to you taking him out so Democrats can pick up another Senate seat.

Hugs and kisses,

kos

[BM]

Safe Crist. Safe Republican.  The only thing interesting about this race now is how nasty and desperate it could potentially get.  Otherwise I think Crist will make an excellent senator.

[Lunar]

Safe Crist. Safe Republican.  The only thing interesting about this race now is how nasty and desperate it could potentially get.

This is likely what will happen, but I'd like to issue a word of caution and state that Crist is not bulletproof in the Republican Primary and I think your post slightly overestimates Crist.  Rubio is hardly a joke candidate, and there's a reason outside of principles and name recognition that the guy is pursing the run, even if Crist is the moderate Goliath.  If Rubio can get substantial CfG backing, which is a big deal with several other high-profile, expensive races, such as Pennsylvania and get the name recognition to transform the GOP primary into a referendum on the stimulus, Crist could be hurt.  On the other hand, Crist is no idiot either and is rationally and [in my opinion] objectively expecting to come out on top.

Senator Crist has been among my predicted 112th Congress freshman senators for a while now, mind you.

I'm just saying, let's let this race play out a couple weeks before we declare it this or that.  I think Pennsylvania is far more decided, for example, hah (*dodges*).  Crist declaring is obv a game changer, in many ways, but there is an above average amount of dissatisfaction in the GOP base here that's hard to measure with head-to-head polling against multiple, unknown challengers.


anyway 

[Lunar]

god I hate it when I'm reading some of the day's breaking news storires at  3 am PST, going to sleep so I don't have to shame  myself any more

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/cheat-sheet/051209white-house-cheat-sheet.html