2012 Republican Rundown: Week 1: PA/DE/NJ

[Erc]

We've seen a lot of threads here discussing various possible 2012 candidates, rather arbitrarily. I figure it might be nice to have a more systematic approach to the candidates, so I'm starting this series of threads to promote discussion on a few candidates at a time, state by state. I did a similar series of threads a few years back (perhaps in 2006?), though I abandoned the effort at some point.

In each thread, I'll list a number of potential candidates from 1-3 states and give a brief bio of each. Vote on whether you think they might mount a campaign for the nomination in 2012, and discuss them in the thread below.

Generally, my criteria for inclusion will be:
--Is constitutionally eligible to become President. (e.g. Mel Martinez will not be listed)
--Will be under the age of 75 on January 20, 2013 [born after January 20, 1938] (e.g. Arlen Specter, who will be 82 in 2013, is not listed today)
--Is a Governor or Senator.
or
--Was a Governor or Senator at some point since January 1, 2006 and left office gracefully.
or
--Was "seriously discussed" as a VP choice for John McCain in 2008
or
--Is the "most prominent" Republican in a state without anyone else falling into the other two categories. (e.g. Mike Castle & Chris Smith, below)

This is not an exclusive list...feel free to discuss anyone I may have left off that deserves mention. Without further ado, today's thread, sure to attract attention from certain posters, is on the first two states in the Union...

Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey

Rep. Mike Castle (DE)
b. July 2, 1939 [73 at inauguration]

Lt. Governor of Delaware: 1981 - 1985
Governor of Delaware: 1985 - 1993
US Representative (DE-AL): 1993 - Present
(Up for Re-election in 2010)

Fmr. Sec. Tom Ridge (PA)
b. August 26, 1945 [67 at inauguration]

US Representative (PA-21): 1983 - 1995
Governor of Pennsylvania: 1995 - 2001
Secretary of Homeland Security: 2001 - 2005 (Resigned)

Rep. Chris Smith (NJ)
b. March 4, 1953 [59 at inauguration]

US Representative (NJ-4): 1981 - Present


Of course, feel free to talk about anyone else from Delaware, Pennsylvania, or New Jersey who didn't make this list (such as a certain ex-Senator from Pennsylvania).

[Keystone Phil]

Somebody else (from PA)

Though Chris Smith would be interesting...

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Out of these, Tom Ridge has the best chance. Though Castle may run as well.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I only see Ridge as even thinking about running.

[Keystone Phil]

I just noticed the part about the Senator or Governor not leaving office in disgrace. I guess that's up for debate with my choice. 

[anvi]

Ridge is a good candidate.  Even longtime Pennsylvania Democrats I know like him.  Good legislative record, good economic track record in Pennsylvania and obvious national security credentials.  Had McCain picked Ridge for the botton of his ticket, Obama would have had a lot more headaches in  Pennsylvania than he ended up with against Palin.  Obviously, Ridge would, were he to get the nomination, have to pick a strong conservative for his ticket in order to shore up the base, and he would need some coaching on how to fire voters up.   But nobody who has a chance to pull in 21 electoral votes from Pennsylvania and who would play well in the region generally (Ohio, Virgina and even the Great Lakes states) should be passed over lightly.

[Matt Damon™]

None of the above but I could see Ridge being tapped for Veep.

[JSojourner]

Ridge COULD run, but probably won't. 

I'm gonna say Pierre "Pete" DuPont.

::: blink :::

Just kidding.

[Verily]

Ridge is clearly the most likely, but I would still consider him highly unlikely to make a run. Smith is not even the most likely of the NJ Republicans. Minor candidates in primaries are nearly always egomaniacs or extreme radicals; Smith is neither in particular, although Garrett is both.

[TeePee4Prez]

Ridge, Smith.  That's it.

Castle and Specter are pariahs in their own parties.  They COULD possibly get my vote depending on the Dem at least, but the base wouldn't go for either of them.  Although Ridge and Smith are moderates, they have appeal to both wings of the party in their own way.  I could possibly see Scott Garrett to excite the base, but he would fall hard in a general.

[Keystone Phil]

Ridge, Smith.  That's it.

Castle and Specter are pariahs in their own parties.  They COULD possibly get my vote depending on the Dem at least, but the base wouldn't go for either of them.  Although Ridge and Smith are moderates, they have appeal to both wings of the party in their own way.  I could possibly see Scott Garrett to excite the base, but he would fall hard in a general.

Well, let's also realized that Specter will be over 80 years old in 2012 so...yeah...

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Castle: probably not
Ridge: yes
Smith: probably not