Bold prediction: Where does the GOP win?

[justfollowingtheelections]

Vote.

[Reaganfan]

North Carolina

[anvi]

Yep, North Carolina, if the economy does not improve enough, Obama won't carry as many of the tech sector votes as he got this time.

[Holmes]

Bold answer: none.

[LanceMcSteel]

NC was R+7 last election cycle, and with the continued migration of Northerners into the Research Triangle, NC will be 3-4 points more Republican than the national average.

As long as Obama wins by more than 4 points (which he will) then NC is his.

Prediction: None

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'll guess NC.

[Reaganfan]

Even if Obama wins re-election convincingly, I think that the dynamics will be different. Places like NE-2 and NC and IN voted for Obama because of the huge anti-GOP, and pro-change message. By 2012, even if Obama wins big, he'll probably lose those states...giving him something more along the lines of this:

[Marokai Backbeat]

The GOP will probably recapture NC. But they also need to be careful not to lose Indiana again, or Montana and Missouri. If Obama's first term is a hopeful/productive first term, Obama could end up carrying Missouri and Montana, as well as NC and Indiana again.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

NC. Slight decrease in AA and young turnout or a small swing of tech sector voters to someone like Romney could easily slide this state back to the GOP. 

[Matt Damon™]

Obama probably won't break 150 EVs in 2012.

[pragmatic liberal]

Obama probably won't break 150 EVs in 2012.

Why do you assume that?

[Matt Damon™]

Carter 2.0

[anvi]

I'm sorry, but this assessment sounds to me like it's coming out of sheer animus toward Obama.  Comparing Obama to Carter as a politician is like comparing Bill Clinton to Wendell Willkie. 

[pbrower2a]

If the Obama's political strength in  2012 is identical to that of 2008, then Obama wins Missouri and loses North Carolina;  Obama lost Missouri by fewer votes than those that were cast for Ralph Nader (whose voters do not ordinarily vote for right-leaning politicians) but won North Carolina, where Obama won by a margin less than the votes for Bob Barr (who does not draw votes away from left-leaning candidates). Indiana looks like a fluke because everything went wrong for the GOP there -- bad economy, active campaigning by the Democratic candidate (Democratic presidential nominees usually ignore Indiana, but Obama didn't), complacency among Republicans about their State in the Presidential race, and copious media attention from the neighboring State (Chicago media). But Arizona would have been in play had anyone other than John McCain been running for President. Obama could easily lose Indiana but win Arizona in 2012 -- if nothing changes other than the Republican nominee, a certainty. So if Obama picks up Missouri and Arizona and loses Indiana and North Carolina, then it's a wash.

2012 won't be like 2008. Much will have changed. There will be a huge infusion of young voters, and the youngest voters have shown themselves enthusiastically Democratic.  The Republican nominee for President will almost certainly have no record of military heroism with which to appeal to voters as proof of willingness to serve his country under the harshest of conditions. (Obama will likely have had more experience in evading muggers than the GOP nominee will have had in facing any danger not self-inflicted). He will have already achieved much -- or failed badly. (I can't see much chance of failure. He is too adept a politician, and he seems too cautious to push some of the pet ideas of the Hard Left -- like a handgun ban or gay marriage. The economy will have improved by 2012).

It is of course a truism to say that if Obama's administration proves as inept as that of Jimmy Carter or especially Herbert Hoover, then he will be crushed in his re-election bid. But does anyone see that? I see him as Ronald Reagan with more flexibility (if the other side of the political spectrum) at the weakest. The GOP will still be saddled with the impediment of memories of the George W. Bush Administration, with an unpopular war, and with the economic meltdown of 2008.  We know the upside very well, one in which on the first Tuesday night, the network news starts rattling of "We project Obama to win" one state after another on the Atlantic seaboard.  If the first state to be so projected is either Indiana or Kentucky (the first two to close their polls and have significant results), then it's all over except to measure the carnage of the Republican Party. 

The Religious Right is on the fade.     

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think that Obama has no reason to did worse in 2012 that he did in 2008. For the time being it seems that he could win these three states.

[pbrower2a]

I think that Obama has no reason to (do) worse in 2012 that he did in 2008. For the time being it seems that he could win these three states.

Obama has a very slight chance of being defeated in a re-election bid in 2012, and that would show that Americans grossly misjudged his abilities in 2008. The Republicans will have to win every one of Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina that Obama won in 2008, and such states as Missouri (that Obama barely lost) and Arizona (that Obama would have won had the Republican nominee not been from Arizona).

Minnesota and Iowa are core Democratic States. Minnesota hasn't voted for the GOP nominee for President since 1972, and Iowa has voted for the Republican nominee for President (and then barely) since 1984.  If someone had phrased the question as "more likely to lose", then the answer would be North Carolina, which Obama barely won in his landslide.

A competent and attentive incumbent President is unbeatable should he seek re-election. It is that simple.

[TomC]

NC, unless Pawlenty's the nominee, then lean Minn.

[Wiz in Wis]

I tend to think that Obama has a pretty good chance of picking up MO, losing IN, and holding all the states you mentioned. Assuming a great term, I would think he gets:

Assuming a terrible term:

[Smash255]

I think he will take all 3.  It is very unlikely the GOP can get Iowa and Minnesota at this point.    If Obama wins by 4 nationally in 2012 (which I think he will, but is way too early) he takes North Carolina. 

The chances of Obama winning NC are quite a bit larger than the chances of the GOP winning Iowa or Minnesota.

[tmthforu94]

North Carolina.
No other Democrat, not even Edwards, would have won it. Obama will have to have an amazing term to win there, as well as Indiana.

[pbrower2a]

I tend to think that Obama has a pretty good chance of picking up MO, losing IN, and holding all the states you mentioned. Assuming a great term, I would think he gets:

Assuming a terrible term:

In 2008, the GOP ran a smear campaign in Kentucky and West Virginia claiming that Obama would inflict environmental regulations that would gut the coal industry. If such has not happened, and Obama has a reasonably-good term as President, then he wins those two states. If he is effective enough, he might even pick up Texas...