Make a prediction that will not look stupid four years from now.

[The Mikado]

Inspired by the current posts in the 2008 board.

Let's see:

By 2012, Pakistan is still a shaky quasi-democracy.  Asif Ali Zardari was forced out of power by quasi-legal manuverings, and the new promising-looking Pakistani leader is a darling in Washington and a pariah in Islamabad.

The LDP is still the ruling party in Japan, due to a last-minute scandal in the DPJ that led to them blowing a sure-thing election.

After recession throughout 2009, slow, shaky growth in 2010, 2011, and 2012 for the US economy.  The economy is marred by the return of inflation that everyone saw coming but were too preoccupied with the 2009 deflationary crisis to avert.  Oil prices are back at record highs, though many say that has more to do with the weakness of the dollar than with actual shortage of oil.

The national debt raises to 12 trillion dollars.  National debt still isn't an issue that interests the electorate.

Despite bluster, no new campaign finance regulation is passed.  And it's a good thing, too.

The Edward Kennedy Memorial Healthcare Act of 2009 takes effect in 2011, to a shaky start, but by 2012 the electorate is adjusting and enjoying the new system.

Al Franken does not tell a single joke on the Senate floor.

Osama bin Laden is discovered to have been dead since early 2007.

Canada is lead by a minority Conservative government.

That's all I can come up with.

[aaaa2222]

Bin Laden dies of natural causes late in Obama's term, 2011 or 2012, but this is not discovered for quite a while. Oil rises to $65-75/barrel, but remains steady there. The economy begins a rapid recovery in mid 2010, aided by close to three trillion in stimulus. The national debt becomes a major issue. In 2012, riding on this issue, the Libertarians, or some party like them in the fiscal respect rises, and achieves 3-10% of the vote, but does not win a state. Obama is re-elected, and the economy rises until 2014, when the sheer debt forces us back into an even deeper depression.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Obama wins re-election.

[aaaa2222]

How so? In a landslide, or by a slim margin?

[Associate Justice PiT]

How so? In a landslide, or by a slim margin?

     He didn't specify how specific the prediction had to be. Anyway, I guess I expect him to perform mildly better than he did in 2008.

[aaaa2222]

Arizona added, anything else? I'm interested to see what people think the next election's going to be like.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     AZ probably. Considering that the nominee will probably be someone rather far to the right of McCain, I could see Obama picking up MO, MT & ND as well. Even AK if Palin is nowhere on the ticket.

[aaaa2222]

Do you think Clinton will make a dash for the nomination in 2012? If she does and fails, it could hurt her standing, but she has a decent chance of making it in an unpopular administration.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I doubt she would. No sitting President has ever been successfully primaried, though some have come close. Maybe if Obama's first term proves to be a disaster she'll go for it, but otherwise I expect she would wait until 2016. She's probably hoping that Biden runs with Obama again in 2012 since that would leave the Democratic field wide open for 2016.

[aaaa2222]

Wasn't Teddy Roosevelt successfully beaten out of the primaries?
Anyway, I honestly don't think she'll wait till 2016, if she doesn't run in 2012, she's going to make a dive for the governor's mansion at the first opportunity she gets, knowing she is damaged goods if she just gives up.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     I've said that in so many different places, it would suck if it turned out to be wrong. I can check later, though.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Prediction:

Obama will govern as a right of center panderer

[aaaa2222]

Why? The Democrats have a pretty strong majority in Congress, he can't be "Forced" into being more conservative.

[Holmes]

Obama will be a center-left president, but will be pretty right when it comes to the military.

[The Mikado]

Wasn't Teddy Roosevelt successfully beaten out of the primaries?

He wasn't a sitting president, he was an ex-President.

Considering that Clinton is part of the Obama Administration, she'd have a hard time challenging Obama based on the record of the Obama Administration.

I don't foresee a primary challenge.

[J. J.]

Republicans will make major gains (30+ seats) in 2010 and gain seats in 2012.  

Economic problems will either re-emerge or get substantially worse in 2011.

Obama might have moderately serious primary challenge in 2012 (worse than Bradley for Gore).

In the next 15 months (probably by January 1, 2010), Obama's approval ratings will be below 50% at some point.  (That isn't too bad.)

The deluge is coming.

[aaaa2222]

30+ seats?! I hope you mean in the House, and that's pretty preposterous, too. At most, Republicans gain 5-10 in the midterm elections. I think there will be a Democratic gain, however.

[The Mikado]

Republicans will make major gains (30+ seats) in 2010 and gain seats in 2012.  

Doubtful.  Possible if Obama and co. really f**k up.

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Quite possible.

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See what I wrote for the first one, except I'm even more skeptical.

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Agreed.

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I think the deluge hit in Sept 2008.

[J. J.]

Republicans will make major gains (30+ seats) in 2010 and gain seats in 2012.  

Doubtful.  Possible if Obama and co. really f**k up.

The last time I predicted a 30 seat gain early, was 1993.  Several seats are demographically Republican and those will bounce back.

The good news for the Democrats is that it is hugely unlikely that the Senate stays Democratic, no matter what.

[Jacobtm]

Russia will be pretty dangerous.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans will make major gains (30+ seats) in 2010 and gain seats in 2012.  

Doubtful.  Possible if Obama and co. really f**k up.

The last time I predicted a 30 seat gain early, was 1993.  Several seats are demographically Republican and those will bounce back.

The good news for the Democrats is that it is hugely unlikely that the Senate stays Democratic, no matter what.

Republicans have nowhere near the number of targets they had in 1993.  The South was still full of Democrats holding heavily Republican districts and Republicans where able to pick up 24 open Democratic seats.  That’s not going to happen this time.  Also, the 1992 redistricting weakened dozens of Democratic incumbents who only survived on Clinton’s coattails in 1992.  They either lost or retired and their seats went to Republicans in 1994.  Another reason that I believe Republicans will be unable to make big gains in 2010 is because this is the last election before redistricting.  Many strong candidates will opt not to run against incumbents because they know that if they win, their district is likely to be cut out from under them in 2012(especially in states like California, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New York where Democrats are likely to be in control of redistricting. )  The best Republicans will be able to do in 2010 is a 1978 style performance where they gain around 15 seats.  There just are not enough Democrats sitting in heavily Republican districts like in 1994.  Also the House has never switched parties without the Senate.  The Senate is always the first to go. 

[Lief 🗽]

JJ, the deluge came. It was called George W. Bush's presidency.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Barack Obama, as President, will be nothing like his Senate voting record indicates. Thus, the Conservative Media, in particular those at the Rupert Murdoch owned FOX News, will not have to worry about a "socialistic" President.

[Matt Damon™]

The GOP's internal struggle will be still going on and the odds are a more moderate republican will be nominated as a compromise between the business and sociocon wings. This will not help the party divisions at all. A decent chance of either a religious right or moderate/business/good government/rockefeller republican third party/indie candidate running.*

* Or possibly both depending on what kind of straits the GOP is in.

[The Mikado]

Republicans will make major gains (30+ seats) in 2010 and gain seats in 2012.  

Doubtful.  Possible if Obama and co. really f**k up.

The last time I predicted a 30 seat gain early, was 1993.  Several seats are demographically Republican and those will bounce back.

The good news for the Democrats is that it is hugely unlikely that the Senate stays Democratic, no matter what.

I get that there are seats that the Dems won't realistically hold on to.  However, without a huge, huge failure of leadership, this Congress, by the sheer weight of the crises facing it and the energy of the President from the party that has large majorities will be a very active Congress.  There will be much legislation passed.  Activity always looks good for Congress, even when the results are bad.

All in all, from this early vantage point, I think it'd be hard for the GOP to pick up more than, say, 15 seats.

Get back to me in May, after the 100 days, and I'll have an updated opinion.

The GOP's internal struggle will be still going on and the odds are a more moderate republican will be nominated as a compromise between the business and sociocon wings. This will not help the party divisions at all. A decent chance of either a religious right or moderate/business/good government/rockefeller republican third party/indie candidate running.*

* Or possibly both depending on what kind of straits the GOP is in.

What sort of figure would this "compromise" candidate be?  Not looking for names, but types.  Romneyesque?