AP-Ipsos poll says Bush 52-Kerry 45 LV, Bush 51-Kerry 42 RV

[Sam Spade]

Can't go to sleep, so I decided to post another poll..

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040924/ap_on_el_pr/ap_ipsos_president_method&cid=694&ncid=1963&sid=96378798

Bush JA @ 54% among LV

Poll conducted Sept. 20-Sept. 22

Last published AP-Ipsos poll on Sept. 7-9 said Bush 51-Kerry 46 LV, Bush 51-Kerry 43 RV, though I could've sworn that I read about a national poll they didn't publish last week that said it Bush 51-43 LV, but that's mere hearsay.

Yet more proof this race hasn't really moved at all in the past two weeks.

[Floridude]

And there was reserved rejoicing...  Yeah, I dont think the race has moved much, or will move much quickly

The only possible excption are the debates.  Whoever wins will get an edge, but unless its a rout it will be a small edge

[CARLHAYDEN]

ISPOS has really done an excellent job this year/

They don't have as many 'horserace' polls as other firms, but I have yet to see one of theri's which is implausible.

[agcatter]

Yes.  It does appear the race is frozen.

[NHPolitico]

The only possible excption are the debates.  Whoever wins will get an edge, but unless its a rout it will be a small edge

It may not even be "debates," but "debate."  The first one gets the most ratings and it's about foreign policy. Kerry still hasn't decided on his stance on various aspects of Iraq foreign policy-- including undermining Allawi and calling him a flip-flopping liar (Bush should pound him over the head with that-- it's inexcusable, especially for a guy who fancies himself the diplomat in the race).  Bush wanted the Iraq debate first. I think they think they can knock him out in the first round. Maybe they are right.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Check out my thread, 'Who said.'

This may be a killer for Kerry on Iraq.

[J. J.]

Gallup is reporting a 9 point lead for Bush in NV:

Bush / Cheney (R)
 52%
 
Kerry / Edwards (D)
 43%
 
Nader / Camejo (I)
 1%
 
No opinion
 4%
 


Source: Gallup / CNN / USA Today
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 535 likely Nevada voters, conducted from Sept. 18 to Sept. 21, 2004. Margin of error is 5 per cent.


It's trending strongly  Bush and he's getting above 50%.  NM is still going Kerry, the last numbers I saw.  That leaves CO, which is trending weakly for Bush.