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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virgini)
  2010
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Author Topic: 2010  (Read 2972 times)
Psychic Octopus
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« on: December 19, 2008, 09:21:58 pm »

since I believe it will be 59-41 in this congress, what if the democrats pick up 1 seat in the 2010 election and get there fillibuster? Plausible or not?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2008, 10:29:53 pm »

Its certainly plausable.  My bet is Democrats pick up one more seat and just get 60. 
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Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2008, 01:22:36 am »

right now, if everything goes as I expect, the Democrats will gain a few seats in the senate and lose a few in the house in 2010, resulting in a Senate something like 62-38 Dem.
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RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
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« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2008, 01:28:07 am »

They may pick up a seat, but they will end up with a net loss. This is a midterm election after all, where Republicans have the edge.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2008, 02:16:34 am »

They may pick up a seat, but they will end up with a net loss. This is a midterm election after all, where Republicans have the edge.

Republicans dont have anywhere to pick up seats other than Colorado and Nevada. 
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muon2
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2008, 09:32:31 am »

IL may be a wildcard. It all depends on how the candidates emerge from the Blago scandal.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2008, 02:19:18 pm »

I see Sebelius getting a seat in 2010 so 60-40
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paul718
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« Reply #7 on: December 21, 2008, 02:51:45 pm »

since I believe it will be 59-41 in this congress, what if the democrats pick up 1 seat in the 2010 election and get there fillibuster? Plausible or not?

Do you mean "cloture"?
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Padfoot
padfoot714
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« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2008, 11:48:28 pm »

Its certainly plausible but I think both parties are going to be dealing with some difficult seats to defend.  I imagine these seats will be the top targets:

Democrats                                    Republicans
Lincoln-AR                                      open-FL
(Salazar replacement ?)-CO          Grassley-IA
open-DE                                         open-KS
(Obama replacement ?)-IL            Bunning-KY
Bayh-IN                                         Bond-MO
Reid-NV                                         Gregg-NH
(Clinton replacement)-NY              Burr-NC
Dorgan-ND                                    Voinovich-OH
Feingold-WI                                  Specter-PA

This is just a preliminary list based on how these states look on paper.  Some of these Senators are fairly popular and can probably withstand a partisan wave ala Collins-ME in 2008.  Lincoln herself survived the Republican Senate onslaught in the South in 2004.  But based on this, and the fact that the partisan make-up of the seats up for election in 2010 is almost evenly split, I'd say either party has the opportunity to pick up a net of 3-4 seats.  However, all of this could be thrown out the window depending how the first two years of the Obama administration pan out.  You never know what's going to happen.
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LongIslandLiberal
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« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2009, 09:15:42 pm »

My predictions:

In the Senate:

D-62
R-36
I-2

In the House:

D-271
R-163
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2009, 10:03:14 pm »

They may pick up a seat, but they will end up with a net loss. This is a midterm election after all, where Republicans have the edge.

While obviously the odds are that they lose some House seats, looking at the Senate seats that will be up in 2010, I think the Democrats are favored.
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Kevin
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« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2009, 10:24:20 pm »

The Republicans could hold Florida and Missouri although it will be a tough fight. The same goes for Ohio but I think the Republicans have more of an advantage here.

In terms of Democratic seats that could be taken, Nevada is at the top of the list, I would consider North Dakota also if Goveror Hoeven runs. Connecticut could be also but Dodd is still heavily favored. The sames for Illionois also but we will jut have to wait and see how te scandal with Blago turns out in regards to the open Senate seat.
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