Schwartz's, Murphy's and Matthew's worst nightmare - Wagner may run.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.politickerpa.com/alexroarty/2800/wagner-considering-run-senate-and-governor

It was bound to happen. I still think he'll go for Governor but this would be the easy route to higher office. Schwartz, Murphy and Matthews have to be praying that he stays out. If he's in and all of the other three run as well, Wagner will be the nominee.

And I'd very strongly consider backing Wagner if Specter is the nominee.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.politickerpa.com/alexroarty/2800/wagner-considering-run-senate-and-governor

It was bound to happen. I still think he'll go for Governor but this would be the easy route to higher office. Schwartz, Murphy and Matthews have to be praying that he stays out. If he's in and all of the other three run as well, Wagner will be the nominee.

And I'd very strongly consider backing Wagner if Specter is the nominee.

Very interesting development. Would Specter be able to beat Wagner? It would seem with the shift in the Philly suburbs it would not be possible for him to win by enough there to compete with the Western avalanche toward Wagner. Specter in my estimates would need the west in order to win with the current PA political climate. The days of moderate Reps winning off of the SE alone are over.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.politickerpa.com/alexroarty/2800/wagner-considering-run-senate-and-governor

It was bound to happen. I still think he'll go for Governor but this would be the easy route to higher office. Schwartz, Murphy and Matthews have to be praying that he stays out. If he's in and all of the other three run as well, Wagner will be the nominee.

And I'd very strongly consider backing Wagner if Specter is the nominee.

Very interesting development. Would Specter be able to beat Wagner? It would seem with the shift in the Philly suburbs it would not be possible for him to win by enough there to compete with the Western avalanche toward Wagner. Specter in my estimates would need the west in order to win with the current PA political climate. The days of moderate Reps winning off of the SE alone are over.

It would be a very tough race. Wagner is Pro Life (and generally socially conservative) and a westerner. That would be a serious problem for Specter since those issues are important to two groups of voters that have never been too fond of Arlen.

If Specter is relying mostly on the west in any race and especially against Wagner, he's basically finished.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

http://www.politickerpa.com/alexroarty/2800/wagner-considering-run-senate-and-governor

It was bound to happen. I still think he'll go for Governor but this would be the easy route to higher office. Schwartz, Murphy and Matthews have to be praying that he stays out. If he's in and all of the other three run as well, Wagner will be the nominee.

And I'd very strongly consider backing Wagner if Specter is the nominee.

Very interesting development. Would Specter be able to beat Wagner? It would seem with the shift in the Philly suburbs it would not be possible for him to win by enough there to compete with the Western avalanche toward Wagner. Specter in my estimates would need the west in order to win with the current PA political climate. The days of moderate Reps winning off of the SE alone are over.

It would be a very tough race. Wagner is Pro Life (and generally socially conservative) and a westerner. That would be a serious problem for Specter since those issues are important to two groups of voters that have never been too fond of Arlen.

If Specter is relying mostly on the west in any race and especially against Wagner, he's basically finished.

Doesn't he basically have to rely on the west? Even if he wins the SE it won't be by a wide margin like it was for him in the 80's or 90's but instead a few points. So he would need to at very least tie out west and I don;t see him doing that against a pro-life Democrat and a westerner at that.

[Keystone Phil]

Doesn't he basically have to rely on the west? Even if he wins the SE it won't be by a wide margin like it was for him in the 80's or 90's but instead a few points. So he would need to at very least tie out west and I don;t see him doing that against a pro-life Democrat and a westerner at that.

I guess it depends on what we are defining as "relying" on the west. If an election is that close and the west is what Specter is looking to to save him, he's done.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Doesn't he basically have to rely on the west? Even if he wins the SE it won't be by a wide margin like it was for him in the 80's or 90's but instead a few points. So he would need to at very least tie out west and I don;t see him doing that against a pro-life Democrat and a westerner at that.

I guess it depends on what we are defining as "relying" on the west. If an election is that close and the west is what Specter is looking to to save him, he's done.

what I am putting forward is the worst case scenario for the PA GOP. In which an eastern moderate Rep faces a Western Moderate Dem and the former is unable to win in the west b/c of the latters presence. The former faces a problem in that his margin will be lower then previous years in his base due to political shifts of that area. Lets say Specter won the SE by 5% how much would he need in the west to put him over the top? Can he get that with Wagner running against him.

[Keystone Phil]

Lets say Specter won the SE by 5% how much would he need in the west to put him over the top? Can he get that with Wagner running against him.

Oh, I don't know. It's hard to nail down how much a candidate's margin of victory is in the SE. Plus, you have to consider turnout and stuff like that.

I understand what you're getting at though. All I'm saying is that depending totally on the west might not be necessary. For example, Specter wouldn't have to worry too much about the west against someone like Schwartz. Give him an opponent like Wagner and he may have to worry about it. The reason why I say "may" is because Specter might actually be able to hold is own here. I know the SE is shifting to the left but that doesn't mean those on the left will necessarily support Wagner. Many Pro Choice groups would be out in full force for Specter. If the Dems have a healthy majority in the Senate, many liberals may vote to keep Specter around or just not vote in that race.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Good point about the Pro-choice groups. We really don;'t now what they will do if the Dem is a social Conservative. They supported Casey primarily b/c they hated Ricky's guts. They might just support Specter if Wagner is the nominee. We will definately have to watch and wait. Definate going to be a lot of fun in PA in 2010.

[Ronnie]

Specter vs. Wagner would truly be a tossup race.  Specter would be wiped out in places like Lackawanna and Erie, but should be able to hold his own in the SE and west.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Specter vs. Wagner would truly be a tossup race.  Specter would be wiped out in places like Lackawanna and Erie, but should be able to hold his own in the SE and west.

You should have a look at how well Wagner polled in the West last month before making that prediction.

[Speed of Sound]

Fantastic, simply fantastic. Listen, PA needs a solid, center pragmatist blue dog to run that senate post that can be trusted to watch for PA and the US. Wagner has a respectable background (Purple Heart) and has some name recognition and experience, not to mention he just looks right for the job (Sorry Schwartz, its a harder sell). I'd back him in the primary and general in the senate race.

[TeePee4Prez]

Fantastic, simply fantastic. Listen, PA needs a solid, center pragmatist blue dog to run that senate post that can be trusted to watch for PA and the US. Wagner has a respectable background (Purple Heart) and has some name recognition and experience, not to mention he just looks right for the job (Sorry Schwartz, its a harder sell). I'd back him in the primary and general in the senate race.

NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!  Ron Klink Part Deux.

We could pull off Allyson Schwartz without selling out.  ! stomached Casey.  I don't think we need to do it again.  In this case I might back Specter.  The parts of the state that drink the populist Kool-Aid are declining in population and not as influential as they once were.  The Dems need the Philly suburbs.  Screw the "I was once a Democrat" Bob Casey clowns.  We've been fine without them.

[Speed of Sound]

Maybe its where I live, but I am going to need some proof of that charge. I'll stay lean Wagner until I see some sort of polling that suggests that the Pennsylvania people are supportive of Schwartz, and I gotta see who Rendell's machine backs up. Whoever they endorse is the person whom I will attempt to stop in their tracks. No offense to Eddie, but his time is up, and so is his machine's. Too much talk of too money sticking to too many hands...

[Lunar]

It would seem a Casey-ish type would be the type would be the way to beat someone like Specter anyway, that, or wait for Specter to die.  Otherwise you're running to the left of someone that has already captured >50.1% of the ideological marketshare.

[Keystone Phil]

Fantastic, simply fantastic. Listen, PA needs a solid, center pragmatist blue dog to run that senate post that can be trusted to watch for PA and the US. Wagner has a respectable background (Purple Heart) and has some name recognition and experience, not to mention he just looks right for the job (Sorry Schwartz, its a harder sell). I'd back him in the primary and general in the senate race.

NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!  Ron Klink Part Deux.

We could pull off Allyson Schwartz without selling out.  ! stomached Casey.  I don't think we need to do it again.  In this case I might back Specter.  The parts of the state that drink the populist Kool-Aid are declining in population and not as influential as they once were.  The Dems need the Philly suburbs.  Screw the "I was once a Democrat" Bob Casey clowns.  We've been fine without them.

Are you insane? Ron Klink Part Deux? The man almost won 60% in this past Auditor General race. The man is huge out west. You've got to be kidding. Pass up someone like Wagner for someone as polarizing and as liberal as Schwartz and you'll be throwing away a perfect opportunity. I understand why you might not be happy ideologically but if you're goal is gaining a seat for your party, this guy is the ticket to victory. You'd have people like myself very seriously considering supporting the guy. Specter can't hold his own out west, won't have conservatives strongly behind him and you still win the traditional Democratic strongholds (with some liberal defections towards Specter). It's a no brainer politically. I guess I can't really blame you when it comes to ideology though.

It would seem a Casey-ish type would be the type would be the way to beat someone like Specter anyway, that, or way for Specter to die. 

Exactly

Maybe its where I live, but I am going to need some proof of that charge. I'll stay lean Wagner until I see some sort of polling that suggests that the Pennsylvania people are supportive of Schwartz, and I gotta see who Rendell's machine backs up. Whoever they endorse is the person whom I will attempt to stop in their tracks. No offense to Eddie, but his time is up, and so is his machine's. Too much talk of too money sticking to too many hands...

Rendell will avoid this race.

Specter vs. Wagner would truly be a tossup race.  Specter would be wiped out in places like Lackawanna and Erie, but should be able to hold his own in the SE and west.

You should have a look at how well Wagner polled in the West last month before making that prediction.

Yeah, Wagner is big out west and Specter has never been much of a popular guy out there.

[Keystone Phil]

Screw the "I was once a Democrat" Bob Casey clowns.  We've been fine without them.

You wouldn't win elections here without those types, pal.

[Keystone Phil]

I will note this negative (in my book) for Wagner - He's a Casey guy. The "ran together" in 2002 (Casey for Governor and Wagner for Lt. Governor). That being said, I'd still consider the guy. If the Democrats are looking like they'll leave the 2010 midterms without serious losses, my chances of supporting Wagner spike. If the GOP has a serious chance at taking back the Senate or making significant gains, I'm in a very tough spot.

[TeePee4Prez]

Screw the "I was once a Democrat" Bob Casey clowns.  We've been fine without them.

You wouldn't win elections here without those types, pal.

We have:

2002- Rendell
2004- Kerry
2006- Rendell again
2008- Obama.  And don't give me the PA is partisan nationally stuff.  We practically saw the realignment of conservative Dems out west to the GOP.

I think we'll be fine and would be wise to go with Schwartz.  She has an incredible campaign operation and would only need to pull 50-50 in the Pittsburgh and Scranton-WB markets to win.  Wagner in a crowded primary of liberals would be another Ron Klink with no support in the Southeast.  Our electorate would be scrambled eggs in a Specter-Wagner matchup.  I'm not particularly aching for Specter's removal anywhere near as much as Santorum though I don't agree with him on a lot.  There's a lot I don't agree with Wagner with as well mainly every social issue.

[Lunar]

Screw the "I was once a Democrat" Bob Casey clowns.  We've been fine without them.

You wouldn't win elections here without those types, pal.

We have:

2002- Rendell
2004- Kerry
2006- Rendell again
2008- Obama.  And don't give me the PA is partisan nationally stuff.  We practically saw the realignment of conservative Dems out west to the GOP.

I think we'll be fine and would be wise to go with Schwartz.  She has an incredible campaign operation and would only need to pull 50-50 in the Pittsburgh and Scranton-WB markets to win.  Wagner in a crowded primary of liberals would be another Ron Klink with no support in the Southeast.  Our electorate would be scrambled eggs in a Specter-Wagner matchup.  I'm not particularly aching for Specter's removal anywhere near as much as Santorum though I don't agree with him on a lot.  There's a lot I don't agree with Wagner with as well mainly every social issue.

Well, Specter starts with over 51% of the ideological market share.  What, are people who exactly match his position on things going to vote against him?  Are conservatives going to vote against him?  Anything solidly to the left of Specter sees like a losing position unless people vote on health issues or they are pissed off about the Holder trial or whatever.  Maybe Specter would depress conservative turnout, but there are other races going on...

Someone who is pro-life, at least, gives a lot of conservatives a reason to stab Specter.

[Keystone Phil]

We have:

2002- Rendell
2004- Kerry
2006- Rendell again
2008- Obama.  And don't give me the PA is partisan nationally stuff.  We practically saw the realignment of conservative Dems out west to the GOP.

Oh, give me a break. Rendell as an example? Please. Take a look at his candidates and then there's the whole idea that we don't kick out incumbent Governors. And the partisan argument is legitimate especially this year. Many conservative Dems still stuck with Obama.

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Your comparison of Wagner to Klink is still ridiculous. He doesn't need support in the SE. If you want to say that he's not good for you on the issues, fine but please don't make an electability argument.

Good luck getting Schwartz to do that well out west and in the Scranton area. Meanwhile, Wagner would win easily, get enough conservative Dem support in certain pockets of the SE and even hold his own in central PA. The areas where Wagner would hold his own is where Schwartz would get destroyed. He has a lot more pull.

You need to seperate electability and your personal feelings, my friend. I do it all the time with Specter. If I was all about just keeping the seat Republican, I'd be behind him 100%.

Someone who is pro-life, at least, gives a lot of conservatives a reason to stab Specter.

Wagner isn't just Pro Life either. There's a reason why people like myself would, if anything, lean towards Wagner in this matchup. Now I know that irritates someone with Flyers' ideology but if you're a Democrat in PA, that's gold. Sure, the Dem base wouldn't be pleased but they're not even close to being like your average Pennsylvania voter. Moderate to conservative Dems dominate here for a reason.

Pick your battle - a match up where both bases aren't enthusiastic about their party's candidate but one of them clearly has better inroads or a battle between a more polarizing challenger who hasn't been tested statewide and doesn't make inroads.

And another thing you may wish to consider is how the climate might be in 2010. If it's looking bad for the Dems, do you really want to run a liberal with no record of strong victory statewide?

[TeePee4Prez]

We have:

2002- Rendell
2004- Kerry
2006- Rendell again
2008- Obama.  And don't give me the PA is partisan nationally stuff.  We practically saw the realignment of conservative Dems out west to the GOP.

Oh, give me a break. Rendell as an example? Please. Take a look at his candidates and then there's the whole idea that we don't kick out incumbent Governors. And the partisan argument is legitimate especially this year. Many conservative Dems still stuck with Obama.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Your comparison of Wagner to Klink is still ridiculous. He doesn't need support in the SE. If you want to say that he's not good for you on the issues, fine but please don't make an electability argument.

Good luck getting Schwartz to do that well out west and in the Scranton area. Meanwhile, Wagner would win easily, get enough conservative Dem support in certain pockets of the SE and even hold his own in central PA. The areas where Wagner would hold his own is where Schwartz would get destroyed. He has a lot more pull.

You need to seperate electability and your personal feelings, my friend. I do it all the time with Specter. If I was all about just keeping the seat Republican, I'd be behind him 100%.

Someone who is pro-life, at least, gives a lot of conservatives a reason to stab Specter.

Wagner isn't just Pro Life either. There's a reason why people like myself would, if anything, lean towards Wagner in this matchup. Now I know that irritates someone with Flyers' ideology but if you're a Democrat in PA, that's gold. Sure, the Dem base wouldn't be pleased but they're not even close to being like your average Pennsylvania voter. Moderate to conservative Dems dominate here for a reason.

Pick your battle - a match up where both bases aren't enthusiastic about their party's candidate but one of them clearly has better inroads or a battle between a more polarizing challenger who hasn't been tested statewide and doesn't make inroads.

And another thing you may wish to consider is how the climate might be in 2010. If it's looking bad for the Dems, do you really want to run a liberal with no record of strong victory statewide?

I definitely think there will be base issues if Wagner and Specter were to both win.  There would definitely be 3rd parties doing well, especially since the Dems control the Senate.  The Democratic party in PA of 2008 is not what it was in 1992.  The old-guard conservative Dems have died off and liberal Republicans have realigned as Democrats.  Bob Casey Jr. won the margins he did largely because you had Dems stomaching him to see Santorum removed and a shot at the majority.  Myself nor a lot of Dems will be so willing to suck it up for Wagner this time as we did Casey.

[Keystone Phil]

I definitely think there will be base issues if Wagner and Specter were to both win.  There would definitely be 3rd parties doing well, especially since the Dems control the Senate.  The Democratic party in PA of 2008 is not what it was in 1992.  The old-guard conservative Dems have died off and liberal Republicans have realigned as Democrats.  Bob Casey Jr. won the margins he did largely because you had Dems stomaching him to see Santorum removed and a shot at the majority.  Myself nor a lot of Dems will be so willing to suck it up for Wagner this time as we did Casey.

You really think conservative Dems have "died off?" Well, that's your problem, pal. Casey's margin of victory wouldn't have even hit double digits if he wasn't thought to be just like his Father. Take a look at the county breakdown some time.

The PA Democrats might not be what they once were but you're kidding yourself if you don't think conservatives make up a good deal of that coalition.

[bullmoose88]

I will be voting Specter, and if the CFG primaries him out, then I will probably vote for the Democrat if he's not too populist.

[Lunar]

I will be voting Specter, and if the CFG primaries him out, then I will probably vote for the Democrat if he's not too populist.

Haha, you represent a minority of Specter voters though!  Most people who would be willing to vote Dem if not Specter will probably find her/him not populist enough!

[Keystone Phil]

Speaking to what I think Lunar is trying to get at, imagine if Specter wins a tough primary - 51% to 49% - again and Wagner is the nominee. Can you just imagine the targetting that the Wagner campaign will be doing? "Republicans for Pro Life, Pro Gun, conservative western PA Democrat Jack Wagner."

Unless it's an absolutely amazing type of year for the GOP in which party members are forced to go straight ticket, I'm seeing that it's very, very difficult for Specter to survive against Wagner. I never count Arlen out but he'll have the General election campaign of his life against Wagner.