Shea-Porter vs. Gregg?

[Brittain33]

And I'll repeat that what you presented is from 2006.

Sam found a poll from 2008, but what's more, could you make an argument why things would have shifted for him since then? Have Senate Republicans become more popular? Has New Hampshire become more Republican? Has Gregg done anything noteworthy?

I think we know the answers to those questions. We could argue we don't know where he stands exactly, and that is so... and that is why I keep saying that we need to see how 2010 is. That said, it's quite clear he wasn't a beloved institution in N.H. two years ago, so I fail to see that he could have become one since then.

[Keystone Phil]

And I'll repeat that what you presented is from 2006.

Sam found a poll from 2008, but what's more, could you make an argument why things would have shifted for him since then? Have Senate Republicans become more popular? Has New Hampshire become more Republican? Has Gregg done anything noteworthy?

Hmmmm...maybe I have to post this again...

You cited a poll from 2006. Sure, his rating could have gotten worse but who knows? I'm not taking a poll from two years ago as a gold standard.

I just don't fell like speculating on his ratings based on a poll from 2006. I wasn't saying that things probably got better. Then again, we've seen odd ratings for members before.

[Brittain33]

LOL. Phil, you're a gem.

[Keystone Phil]

LOL. Phil, you're a gem.

I don't know what I said that was "LOL" worthy. It's amazing how I have to get lectures from certain posters about maturity and then they go on and "debate" the way you do.

Do me a favor and post a simple, "Let's agree to disagree" and get whatever is up your ass out of it as quickly as possible.

[Brittain33]

Do me a favor and post a simple, "Let's agree to disagree"

Why would I do that? I'm right, you're not. I'm satisfied with that conclusion. Cheers.

[Keystone Phil]

Do me a favor and post a simple, "Let's agree to disagree"

Why would I do that? I'm right, you're not. I'm satisfied with that conclusion. Cheers.

Fabulous argument, sweety.

[Sam Spade]

Just FYI:  New Hampshire is one of those states on my list that I am curious to see what happens in the next couple of years once Bush leaves office.  (I have about five others or so on that list).

There's actually a number of ways to read the information I have provided.  Interesting the two ways it has been done already, at least in my book...

[Brittain33]

Just FYI:  New Hampshire is one of those states on my list that I am curious to see what happens in the next couple of years once Bush leaves office.  (I have about five others or so on that list).

This is certainly true. This is one reason I'm curious to see how Gregg defines himself in opposition to Obama, or not, in the next couple of years. He has an opportunity to carve out a niche that Sununu didn't have and would have denied himself anyway.

If he helps out on too many filibusters, it's going to get noticed.

[Dan the Roman]

Just FYI:  New Hampshire is one of those states on my list that I am curious to see what happens in the next couple of years once Bush leaves office.  (I have about five others or so on that list).

There's actually a number of ways to read the information I have provided.  Interesting the two ways it has been done already, at least in my book...

I think this will be interesting to see. FYI I think Bush is overestimated as a cause of GOP ailings in the NE though he generally hasn't helped. I think that the real problem has been the the transformation of the GOP from a class based party in the 1970s to an ideological one now. This transformation didn't happen until this decade in most of New England, and the GOP in places like Massachusetts was still the party of anti-Irish machine suburbs, in many cases more liberal than the Democrats as late as this decade(a majority of GOP senators supported gay marriage in 2004).

However increasingly conservative activists have not only taken over the party, but begun nominating themselves. This has been fatal. The transformation to an ideological party has lost the party its social base, while not winning it any voters it wasn't otherwise getting.

In fact, I am willing to ascribe a lot of GOP losses to more conservative candidates. The best example may be in the Maine legislature. In 2004 the house was 74-73 democratic, and the Senate 18-17. In 2006 the house went 89-60 Democratic but the Senate stayed the same. As someone who worked on the Senate campaign, the house losses were due almost entirely to Christian conservative or otherwise unelectably conservative candidates winning primaries and then losing their own seats, while also backing things like the Question 1 referendum in 2005(which would of stripped sexual orientation from employment protections), which hurt the party in general. Its not so much that moderates were now too conservative, but that moderate and liberal voters would vote for moderate Republicans as long as they controlled the party, but once conservatives hijacked it, they were simply empowering conservatives by voting for moderates.

The same I think has happened in NH. Its worth noting that post 2004, the Democrats already de facto controlled the state house in coalition with moderate Republicans. While straight ticket voting took a toll in 2006, a lot of incumbent GOP reps lost their primaries, and then had Democrats win in the general.

This all said, I think that the NE is in a circular spiral of death. As it shrinks, Conservatives get more power, which they are unlikely to give up. This drives the parties more to the fringes. Its only really in Maine where the Collins people ruthlessly fought fire with fire that the tide has even partially held, and the fact that the party is in much better shape their is a testament to the effectiveness of that approach. Its why I can see a revival their. New Hampshire is where I least expect one, since the Conservatives are completely running the show now.

[TheresNoMoney]

Shea-Porter is probably the most underestimated member of Congress.

^^^^^^^^^

She might be the strongest statewide Democrat in New Hampshire (besides John Lynch). She has won handily two elections in a row in the more conservative NH district.  Gregg will be vulnerable no matter who the Democratic candidate is.

[TheresNoMoney]

By the way, if CSP runs for Senate then Steve Marchand would probably be the NH-01 candidate.

[Lunar]

Shea-Porter is probably the most underestimated member of Congress.

^^^^^^^^^

She might be the strongest statewide Democrat in New Hampshire (besides John Lynch). She has won handily two elections in a row in the more conservative NH district.  Gregg will be vulnerable no matter who the Democratic candidate is.

She did not win handily by House standards.  She's a horrible fundraiser.  She underperformed Obama in a McCain-friendly district.  She had to be 100% bailed out by the DNC.

Oh, and the district isn't really that conservative, I believe it's Cook +0. 

[TheresNoMoney]

She did not win handily by House standards.  She's a horrible fundraiser.  She underperformed Obama in a McCain-friendly district.  She had to be 100% bailed out by the DNC.

She beat Jeb Bradley in a huge upset in 2006. She won again by a comfortable margin against Bradley despite supposedly being "vulnerable". And in terms of fundraising, you don't need a ton of money to run statewide in New Hampshire. She already has name recognition and would be a strong Senate candidate. And let's be real here, being a woman definitely helps (there is a HUGE gender gap in NH).

Oh, and the district isn't really that conservative, I believe it's Cook +0. 

It's not a conservative district, but it's definitely more conservative than Paul Hodes' district. Bush won CSP's district by a few points in 2004.

[Lunar]

She did not win handily by House standards.  She's a horrible fundraiser.  She underperformed Obama in a McCain-friendly district.  She had to be 100% bailed out by the DNC.

She beat Jeb Bradley in a huge upset in 2006. She won again by a comfortable margin against Bradley despite supposedly being "vulnerable".

I mean, no one could be vulnerable in a state Obama dominated in so much...

And in terms of fundraising, you don't need a ton of money to run statewide in New Hampshire.

Then why did the national party have to spend 2.5 million dollars for her to keep her seat?

New Hampshire doesn't have any indigenous media markets, does it?

[MaxQue]

She did not win handily by House standards.  She's a horrible fundraiser.  She underperformed Obama in a McCain-friendly district.  She had to be 100% bailed out by the DNC.

She beat Jeb Bradley in a huge upset in 2006. She won again by a comfortable margin against Bradley despite supposedly being "vulnerable".

I mean, no one could be vulnerable in a state Obama dominated in so much...

And in terms of fundraising, you don't need a ton of money to run statewide in New Hampshire.

Then why did the national party have to spend 2.5 million dollars for her to keep her seat?

New Hampshire doesn't have any indigenous media markets, does it?

Probably not. I remember seeing ads for Sununu and Shaheen on WBZ, a Boston network.

[Lunar]

Exactly, why would NH become cheap all of a sudden?  I think 2.5 mill is what the national party spent on her, but I totally didn't look it up before posting so I could be off.  Just memory yo

[Kevinstat]

In fact, I am willing to ascribe a lot of GOP losses to more conservative candidates. The best example may be in the Maine legislature. In 2004 the house was 74-73 democratic, and the Senate 18-17. In 2006 the house went 89-60 Democratic but the Senate stayed the same. As someone who worked on the Senate campaign, the house losses were due almost entirely to Christian conservative or otherwise unelectably conservative candidates winning primaries and then losing their own seats,

In the two moderate v. conservative contested Republican State House primaries I was aware of in 2006 (one in Augusta and another in my House district to the west and northwest of Augusta), the "socially moderate" (not very different from socially liberal from my experience) candidates won.  But I know there were other contested primaries.  Can you name some places where conservative Republican Maine State House candidates beat moderates in the primary in 2006?  I'm asking not out of doubt but out of genuine interest.

Also, the House eventually became 88-61-2 Democratic before any deaths, resignations or party switches (the last of which never happened last term) when an apparent Democratic pickup on election night was reversed in the recount but, because of a dispute which lasted until after the Legislature convened for one day in December, the Democrat (as the apparent winner from the election night count) was provisionally seated; he conceded in early January I believe and the House stood at 88-61-2 until my State Representative (a Republican) died in a ski accident in April.  She was replaced by a Democrat who himself died in August or September; his widow was elected to replace him in one of 5 special elections held that November, another one of which (caused by a Republican resignation) became another Democratic pickup which put the House at 90-59-2 until the Legislature elected this November was sworn in earlier this month.