Germans secure Paris/Allies capture Berlin

[??????????]

What would have been the long term effects of either one of the above events happening in WW1?

[Хahar 🤔]

That really depends on the circumstances.

If the Germans were able to take Paris right at the beginning of the war, France would be out quickly. Britain would probably make a separate peace soon after. German troops would then be transferred to the east, where their great weight would quickly overwhelm Russia. After the capture of Petrograd, the tsarist regime would fall, to be replaced by a democratic Provisional Government that would sue for peace, ceding Courland, Lithuania, Livonia, Finland, and parts of White Russia and the Ukraine. The Bolsheviks would be marginalized, probably resulting in an eventual reunification of the SDLP, and the SRs would be the main force on the left. It's impossible to say with any certainty what would happen after that.

[GMantis]

The capture of Berlin would probably nip any Dolchstoßlegende right in the bud. I also think that under such circumstances might be able to punish Germany in such a way that could really prevent them from starting another war instead of just angering them.

[afleitch]

Paris falls in '14-'15? Britain calls a truce and like gentlemen the powers of Europe on both side re-carve the world. Millions live and the royals families of Europe still visit each other on the holidays. The Tsar (or at least the regime) falls and is replaced by a democratic state. Germany has a go at playing games with European trade and consumerism grips Europe leading to general prosperity (but with slightly less technological advance) And a man named Adolf plays soldiers and get's gunned down by police in a pathetic little Bavarian protest.

The Allies capture Berlin - This would never happen. Germany would have put it's hands up long before things got to that level (indeed in 1918 they still had some strategic advantage but were just bogged down). Had it been Russians who reached there in say 1916 then Germany calls a truce and like gentlemen the powers of Europe on both side re-carve the world. Millions live and the royals families of Europe still visit each other on the holidays. The Tsar (or at least the regime) reforms and becomes a democratic state. Russia has a go at playing games with Asian trade and consumerism grips Europe leading to general prosperity (but with slightly less technological advance) And a man named Adolf plays soldiers and get's gunned down by police in a pathetic little Bavarian protest.

[WillK]

Paris falls in '14-'15? Britain calls a truce and like gentlemen the powers of Europe on both side re-carve the world. Millions live and the royals families of Europe still visit each other on the holidays. The Tsar (or at least the regime) falls and is replaced by a democratic state. Germany has a go at playing games with European trade and consumerism grips Europe leading to general prosperity (but with slightly less technological advance) And a man named Adolf plays soldiers and get's gunned down by police in a pathetic little Bavarian protest.

To me, the part you didnt address is what happens to France.  Does it empire crumble faster because of the defeat?  Does it simmer with anger leading to a drift into fascism...

[afleitch]

Paris falls in '14-'15? Britain calls a truce and like gentlemen the powers of Europe on both side re-carve the world. Millions live and the royals families of Europe still visit each other on the holidays. The Tsar (or at least the regime) falls and is replaced by a democratic state. Germany has a go at playing games with European trade and consumerism grips Europe leading to general prosperity (but with slightly less technological advance) And a man named Adolf plays soldiers and get's gunned down by police in a pathetic little Bavarian protest.

To me, the part you didnt address is what happens to France.  Does it empire crumble faster because of the defeat?  Does it simmer with anger leading to a drift into fascism...

France and fascism is a bit like oil and water. They would simply end up with a 'new Republic' when faced with defeat, similar to 1870.

[??????????]

Wow, Afleitch that's a pretty mundane ending either way. Thanks.

[afleitch]

Wow, Afleitch that's a pretty mundane ending either way. Thanks.

A swift German victory followed by business as usual would probably have been for the best.

[??????????]

Wow, Afleitch that's a pretty mundane ending either way. Thanks.

A swift German victory followed by business as usual would probably have been for the best.

Would the Germans keep hold of France?

[WillK]

Wow, Afleitch that's a pretty mundane ending either way. Thanks.

A swift German victory followed by business as usual would probably have been for the best.

Would the Germans keep hold of France?

I doubt that Germany would have done so. 

I agree with Afleitch's general conclusion.

[afleitch]

Wow, Afleitch that's a pretty mundane ending either way. Thanks.

A swift German victory followed by business as usual would probably have been for the best.

Would the Germans keep hold of France?

I doubt that Germany would have done so. 

I agree with Afleitch's general conclusion.

Germany had no ambition to hold France at least territorially (it only lost Alsace/Lorraine after 1870 for example)

It would probably have absorbed Nord-Pas De Calais (or Nord as it was then) an industrial region including the city of Lille. This would also have included the channel ports of Dunkirk, Calais and Boulogne directly across the Channel from the UK. Other than this, Germany would have annexed Belgium and Luxembourg. Belgium would have been carved up. It is quite possible that they would create a Flemish satellite state out of it.

Other than becoming a forced member of a German Customs Union with economic subjugation to Germany for a time, France would have been left to it's own devices.

[Хahar 🤔]

What about a Russian capture of Berlin? It wasn't out of the question before Tannenberg.

[pbrower2a]

Wow, Afleitch that's a pretty mundane ending either way. Thanks.

A swift German victory followed by business as usual would probably have been for the best.

Would the Germans keep hold of France?

They couldn't. They might have snipped off some territory in the northeastern part of France and taken away significant parts of the French and British colonial empires.

The horrors of World War I in its stalemate stage created the era of very bad feelings. Wilhelm II would have had his victory parade in Paris, granted clemency to almost all French and Belgians, and gone on his way.

France would not have been subject to any Dolchstosslegende  had Paris fallen -- unless against Britain. Swift collapses prevent conspiracy theories from arising.